ZAGREB UPDATE, NOVEMBER 25, 1991

CONFIDENTIAL SECTION 01 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS USMISSION USNATO 1159 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0370 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24// CTF SIXTWO CTF SIXONE USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS MARR PHUM SUBJECT: ZAGREB UPDATE, NOVEMBER 25, 1991 - ¶1. (U) SUMMARY: PRESIDENT TUDJMAN WENT ON CROATIAN TELEVISION YESTERDAY TO DENOUNCE ALLEGED RIGHTIST AND JNA COVERT PLOTS TO BRING DOWN HIS GOVERNMENT. THE EVACUATION OF JNA INSTALLATIONS IN THE ZAGREB AREA HAS BEGUN, THOUGH NOT ALTOGETHER SMOOTHLY. SHELLING IN OSIJEK WAS REPORTED TODAY. A CONTACT IN DUBROVNIK CLAIMS THE JNA AIMS TO PRESSURE THE CIVILIAN POPULATION OUT IN ORDER TO TAKE THE CITY. REFUGEES CONTINUE TO FLOOD INTO ZAGREB AND ELSEWHERE, AND STORIES OF HUMANITARIAN ABUSES ARE MOUNTING. END SUMMARY - TUDJMAN: "THE FINAL PHASE" OF THE BATTLE -------------- ¶2. (U) CROATIAN PRESIDENT TUDJMAN APPEARED ON CROATIAN TELEVISION SUNDAY EVENING, NOVEMBER 24, CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01658 01 OF 05 251748Z TO DECLARE THAT "THE BATTLE" FOR CROATIAN INDEPENDENCE AND INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION "HAS TAKEN ON DRAMATIC PROPORTIONS AS IT ENTERS ITS FINAL PHASE." TUDJMAN DISCUSSED HIS HOPES FOR A U.N. PEACE-KEEPING FORCE, SAYING THAT DIFFERENCES STILL EXISTED ON DEFINING THE "CRISIS AREAS" TO WHICH SUCH A FORCE WOULD BE DEPLOYED, AND WARNING THAT THE JNA AND SERBIA WOULD SEEK TO CONSOLIDATE THEIR TERRORITORIAL GAINS BEFORE THE PEACE-KEEPING FORCE COULD ARRIVE. HE ASSERTED THAT WITH THE WEST NOW READY "TO ACT MORE DECISIVELY, THE SERBIAN SIDE HAS UNDERTAKEN NEW DECEITS." - ¶3. (U) TUDJMAN DEVOTED MUCH OF HIS SPEECH TO A DESCRIPTION OF WHAT HE TERMED "EVIDENT PROOF" THAT BOTH CROATIAN RIGHTIST EXTREMISTS, IN THE FORM OF THE CROATIAN PARTY OF THE RIGHT (HDS) AND ITS ARRESTED LEADER, DOBROSLAV PARAGA, AND THE INTELLIGENCE BRANCH OF THE YUGOSLAV ARMY (KOS) WERE ENGAGED IN PLOTS TO OVERTHROW THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT, ALTHOUGH TUDJMAN SEEMED TO SUGGEST THAT PARAGA WAS BEING UNWITTINGLY USED BY KOS RATHER THAN BEING IN ACTIVE COLLUSION WITH IT. TUDJMAN CRITICIZED PARAGA AND HIS PARTY FOR REVIVING FASCIST SYMBOLS WHICH DISCREDITED CROATIA. - ¶4. (C) TUDJMAN'S EXPLANATION OF HIS "EVIDENT PROOF" WAS NOT VERY SPECIFIC, AND WHEN WE RAISED THE ISSUE THE FOLLOWING DAY DURING A MEETING CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01658 01 OF 05 251748Z WITH HRVOYE SARINIC, A TOP TUDJMAN AIDE, SARINIC CLAIMED THAT COLONEL MILE DEDAKOVIC, NOW UNDER ARREST FOR "UNDERMINING" THE DEFENSE OF VUKOVAR, HAD "CONFESSED" TO HAVING TIES WITH JNA CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01658 02 OF 05 251749Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DPR-01 EB-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 NRRC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01 SSO-00 SS-01 TRSE-00 T-01 /062W -------------- B0138E 251801Z /49 O 251747Z NOV 91 FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0014 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE USIA WASHDC 0888 AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG AMEMBASSY MADRID AMCONSUL MILAN AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMCONSUL MUNICH AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01658 02 OF 05 251749Z USMISSION USNATO 1160 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0371 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24// CTF SIXTWO CTF SIXONE USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS INTELLIGENCE. (DEDAKOVIC IS AN ETHNIC CROAT WHO DEFECTED SEVERAL MONTHS AGO FROM THE JNA TO JOIN THE CROATIAN SIDE.) MOREOVER, THERE WAS EVIDENCE THAT DEDAKOVIC WAS COOPERATING WITH PARAGA IN A PLOT TO OVERTHROW TUDJMAN AND HIS GOVERNMENT, SARINIC CLAIMED. - PARAGA REMAINS JAILED -------------- ¶5. (U) PARAGA'S DETENTION HAS BEEN EXTENDED THIRTY DAYS PENDING PREPARATION OF THE CASE AGAINST HIM. PARAGA'S DEPUTY, MILAN VUKOVIC, WAS RELEASED OVER THE WEEKEND, AND IMMEDIATELY ANNOUNCED THAT HE, ALONG WITH PARAGA, WOULD CONTINUE A HUNGER STRIKE UNTIL PARAGA'S RELEASE. ¶6. (C) VIRTUALLY ALL OF CROATIA'S OPPOSITION PARTIES ISSUED STATEMENTS CRITICAL OF THE GOVERNMENT'S ARREST OF PARAGA, ARGUING THAT PARAGA SHOULD BE DEALT WITH BY POLITICAL RATHER CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01658 02 OF 05 251749Z THAN LEGAL MEANS. AT LEAST SOME CROATIANS BOTH IN AND OUT OF GOVERNMENT ARE TAKING THIS STANCE OF OPPOSITION SOLIDARITY WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, HOWEVER; AS ONE JOURNALIST POINTED OUT, MANY IN THE OPPOSITION WERE CRITICIZING TUDJMAN ONLY LAST WEEK FOR NOT DEALING MORE FORCEFULLY WITH PARAGA. - ¶7. (C) THERE HAVE BEEN DAILY GATHERINGS SINCE SATURDAY OF ABOUT ONE HUNDRED PERSONS, INCLUDING SOME OF PARAGA'S ARMED TROOPS, IN ZAGREB'S MAIN SQUARE TO PROTEST PARAGA'S ARREST. THESE PROTESTS ARE REPORTEDLY SLATED TO OCCUR DAILY UNTIL HIS RELEASE. TUDJMAN AIDE SARINIC CLAIMED TO US THAT "THE MAJORITY" OF THE FORCES LOYAL TO PARAGA (HE PUT THEM AT "LESS THAN ONE THOUSAND") ARE ACCEPTING INTEGRATION INTO REGULAR CROATIAN FORCES. MOST OTHER CROATIAN SOURCES CONSIDER THIS PREDICTION UNREALISTICALLY OPTIMISTIC. - PROGRESS ON UNBLOCKING JNA INSTALLATIONS -------------- ¶8. (C) IMPLEMENTATION OF THE AGREEMENT SIGNED NOVEMBER 22 TO EVACUATE THE REMAINING BLOCKED JNA "PEACE-TIME UNITS" IN CROATIA BEGAN OVER THE WEEKEND. CONVOYS LEFT PLESO, NEAR THE ZAGREB AIRPORT, HEADED FOR BANJA LUKA UNDER EC SUPERVISION. THE EC MONITORS SPOKESMAN TOLD US THAT THE CONVOY WAS FIRED UPON FROM CROATIAN LINES AS IT PASSED THROUGH KARLOVAC, AND WAS ONLY ALLOWED TO PASS AFTER EC MONITORS CONTACTED CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01658 02 OF 05 251749Z CROATIAN NEGOTIATORS IN ZAGREB TO ASSURE SAFE PASSAGE. THE EVACUATION OF THE DUGO SELO BARRACKS WAS TO BEGIN TODAY. - CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01658 03 OF 05 251751Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DPR-01 EB-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 NRRC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01 SSO-00 SS-01 TRSE-00 T-01 /062W -------------- B0139C 251801Z /49 O 251747Z NOV 91 FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0015 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE USIA WASHDC 0889 AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG AMEMBASSY MADRID AMCONSUL MILAN AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMCONSUL MUNICH AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01658 03 OF 05 251751Z USMISSION USNATO 1161 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0372 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24// CTF SIXTWO CTF SIXONE USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 03 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS INAUSPICIOUS START FOR LATEST CEASE-FIRE -------------- ¶9. (C) ACCORDING TO EC MONITORS, HEAVY JNA SHELLING OCCURRED OVER THE WEEKEND IN KARLOVAC, ZADAR, AND OSIJEK, AND DID NOT STOP ENTIRELY WITH THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW CEASE-FIRE EFFECTIVE NOVEMBER 22 AT 1800 LT. THE EC SPOKESMAN SAID CROATIAN FORCES DEMOLISHED THE MASLENICA BRIDGE (25 KM NORTHEAST OF ZADAR) THE NIGHT OF NOVEMBER 20-21, RESULTING IN SOME THIRTY DEATHS. ¶10. (C) DURING OUR CALL ON SARINIC AT THE PRESIDENCY MONDAY MORNING, SARINIC RECEIVED WORD THAT THE JNA WAS SHELLING OSIJEK. SARINIC CALLED DEFENSE MINISTER KADIJEVIC'S OFFICE TO PROTEST THE APPARENT CEASE-FIRE VIOLATION, AND LATER TOLD US IN DISGUST THAT THE JNA CLAIMED THE CROATIANS THEMSELVES WERE SHELLING OSIJEK. SITUATION IN DUBROVNIK CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01658 03 OF 05 251751Z -------------- ¶11. (C) SLOBODAN LANG, PRESIDENT OF THE CROATIAN-AMERICAN FRIENDSHIP SOCIETY AND A LONG-TIME CONSULATE CONTACT, HAS BEEN TELEPHONING US NIGHTLY FROM THE DUBROVNIK AREA WITH UPDATES. (HE APPARENTLY HAS ACCESS TO COMMUNICATIONS FACILITIES BROUGHT IN BY ONE OF THE RELIEF GROUPS.) LANG SAYS THE JNA IS ATTEMPTING TO INTIMIDATE THE CIVILIAN POPULATION TO ABANDON DUBROVNIK BY USING A COMBINATION OF THREATS (LANG SAID YET ANOTHER JNA "ULTIMATUM" EXPIRED AT 1100 THIS MORNING),SHELLING, AND SPORADIC ADMISSION OF RELIEF VESSELS TO TAKE PEOPLE OUT. THE AIM, ACCORDING TO LANG, IS TO REDUCE THE POPULATION TO WHAT CAN BE CLAIMED TO BE "USTASI HOLD-OUTS" AND THEN TO TAKE THE CITY. - ¶12. (C) LANG SAID HE IS CONCENTRATING HIS EFFORTS ON PRACTICAL MEASURES AIMED AT WINNING JNA OBSERVANCE OF INTERNATIONAL HUMANITARIAN CONVENTIONS. FOR EXAMPLE, THE JNA IS BEING ASKED TO ALLOW LOCAL WOMEN RESIDENTS TO ACCOMPANY THEM WHEN THEY ENTER HOMES TO SEARCH FOR WEAPONS IN AN EFFORT TO MONITOR THEIR BEHAVIOR. SOME TROOPS ARE DISCIPLINED, HE SAID; OTHERS, NOTABLY THE RESERVISTS, "HAVE NEVER HEARD OF THE GENEVA CONVENTIONS AND DON'T CARE." BASED ON HIS DEALINGS THERE, LANG BELIEVES THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OBTAINING COOPERATION FROM MONTENEGRO TO ASSURE THE SECURITY OF DUBROVNIK. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01658 03 OF 05 251751Z ¶13. (U) ALTHOUGH LANG SAID HE HOPED ADEQUATE CONDITIONS COULD BE PROVIDED TO PERMIT THE CIVILIAN POPULATION TO REMAIN IN DUBROVNIK, HE CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01658 04 OF 05 251752Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DPR-01 EB-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 NRRC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01 SSO-00 SS-01 TRSE-00 T-01 /062W -------------- B013A7 251802Z /49 O 251747Z NOV 91 FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0016 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE USIA WASHDC 0890 AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG AMEMBASSY MADRID AMCONSUL MILAN AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMCONSUL MUNICH AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01658 04 OF 05 251752Z USMISSION USNATO 1162 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0373 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24// CTF SIXTWO CTF SIXONE USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 04 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS PROMISED TO TRY TO CONTACT EVERY AMERICAN CITIZEN REMAINING IN DUBROVNIK AND TO SEEK PRIORITY EVACUATION FOR THOSE WHO WISH TO LEAVE. - THE HORRORS OF WAR -------------- ¶14. (U) REFUGEES FROM VUKOVAR AND ELSEWHERE CONTINUED TO POUR INTO ZAGREB OVER THE WEEKEND. WE ARE NOW HEARING FIGURES OF 100,000 REFUGEES IN ZAGREB ITSELF (THOUGH MOST OF THESE WILL QUICKLY BE MOVED ELSEWHERE) AND AS MANY AS HALF A MILLION IN CROATIA AS A WHOLE. THE REFUGEES FROM VUKOVAR TELL WRENCHING STORIES OF MONTHS SPENT IN UNDERGROUND SHELTERS, WITH DIMINISHING SUPPLIES, NO NEWS OF THEIR FAMILIES, AND FINALLY OF EMERGING TO FIND THEIR CITY COMPLETELY DEMOLISHED AROUND THEM. - ¶15. (U) THE REFUGEES' MOVING TESTIMONY, THE ABSOLUTENESS OF VUKOVAR'S DESTRUCTION, AND CONTINUAL RUMORS OF ATROCITIES STILL NOT CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 03 ZAGREB 01658 04 OF 05 251752Z UNCOVERED HAVE RAISED PUBLIC EMOTION ABOUT THE WAR TO A HIGH PITCH. CROATIAN ANGER WAS FURTHER STOKED BY THE BBC BROADCAST OF FOOTAGE FROM VUKOVAR OF SERBIAN IRREGULARS MARCHING VICTORIOUSLY THROUGH THE STREETS SINGING (UNBEKNOWNST TO THE BRITISH CORRESPONDENT) AN OLD "CHETNIK" SONG OF WHICH THE WORDS WERE CLEARLY HEARD: "THERE'LL BE MEAT; THERE'LL BE MEAT; WE'LL SLAUGHTER CROATS." THE JNA ALLEGATION THAT CROATS HAD MASSACRED SERBIAN CHILDREN IN VUKOVAR, PUBLISHED BY REUTERS AND LATER RETRACTED, IS BEING CITED AS FURTHER PROOF OF SERBIAN PERFIDY. - ¶16. (U) AT THE SAME TIME, THE CROATIAN PRESS HAS REPORTED AN ALLEGED MASSACRE BY SERBIAN IRREGULARS OF 35 CIVILIANS FROM THE CROATIAN VILLAGE OF SKABRNJA, NEAR ZADAR. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, THE BODIES WERE TURNED OVER BY THE JNA TO THE ZADAR MEDICAL CENTER, WHICH ESTABLISHED THAT THE BODIES BORE SIGNS OF "MASSACRE." THE EC MONITORS' SPOKESMAN TOLD US TODAY THAT THE EC GROUP REGARDS THE CASE AS A "SERIOUS ONE MERITING INVESTIGATION," BUT THAT THE JNA HAS DENIED PERMISSION TO EC MONITORS TO VISIT THE AREA. ¶17. (U) WE ALSO UNDERSTAND FROM THE EC MONITORS' GROUP THAT EFFORTS TO CONFIRM THE STATUS OF PERSONS MISSING FROM THE EVACUATION OF THE WOUNDED FROM VUKOVAR'S HOSPITAL CONTINUE. CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 04 ZAGREB 01658 04 OF 05 251752Z ACCORDING TO THE CROATIAN PRESS, ONLY ONE FOURTH OF THE WOUNDED WHO WERE TO HAVE BEEN EVACUATED TO CROATIA HAVE BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR; THE REST, INCLUDING THE DIRECTOR OF THE HOSPITAL, CONFIDENTIAL NNNN CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 01 ZAGREB 01658 05 OF 05 251753Z ACTION EUR-01 INFO LOG-00 AID-01 AMAD-01 CIAE-00 DODE-00 DPR-01 EB-01 CSCE-01 HA-09 H-01 INRE-00 INR-01 IO-19 L-03 ADS-00 NRRC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-01 PM-01 PRS-01 P-01 RP-10 SNP-01 SP-01 SR-01 SSO-00 SS-01 TRSE-00 T-01 /062W -------------- B013B3 251802Z /49 O 251747Z NOV 91 FM AMCONSUL ZAGREB TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0017 INFO AMEMBASSY BELGRADE IMMEDIATE USIA WASHDC 0891 AMEMBASSY ANKARA AMEMBASSY ATHENS AMEMBASSY BONN AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST AMEMBASSY LISBON AMEMBASSY LONDON AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG AMEMBASSY MADRID AMCONSUL MILAN AMEMBASSY MOSCOW AMCONSUL MUNICH AMEMBASSY PARIS AMEMBASSY ROME AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE AMEMBASSY VIENNA CONFIDENTIAL CONFIDENTIAL PAGE 02 ZAGREB 01658 05 OF 05 251753Z USMISSION USNATO 1163 USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0374 COMSIXTHFLT//N2// CINCUSNAVEUR LONDON//N24// CTF SIXTWO CTF SIXONE USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//ECJ3/ECJ5// C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 05 OF 05 ZAGREB 01658 SIPDIS APPARENTLY REMAIN IN JNA HANDS. ¶18. (U) THE CROATIAN GOVERNMENT HAS CALLED FOR AN INTERNATIONAL COMMISSION TO INVESTIGATE AND PUNISH "WAR CRIMES" AND VIOLATIONS OF HUMANITARIAN LAW. THE SERBIAN DEMOCRATIC FORUM OF ZAGREB HAS JOINED IN THIS PROPOSAL. STEPHENS CONFIDENTIAL NNNN