A SUMMARY OF RECENT ESTIMATES OF SENDERO

S E C R E T LIMA 07182 DIA FOR OA-5/OS-1D/DB-612/JSI-4B/DB-3C1 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: A SUMMARY OF RECENT ESTIMATES OF SENDERO LUMINOSO STRENGTH REF: 90 LIMA 12787 ¶1. (S/NF/NC/ORCO... id: 457 date: 5/30/1991 23:11 refid: 91LIMA7182 origin: Embassy Lima classification: SECRET destination: 90LIMA12787 header: P 302311Z MAY 91 FM AMEMBASSY LIMA TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8453 INFO AMEMBASSY BOGOTA AMEMBASSY LA PAZ AMEMBASSY QUITO USAFSO HOWARD AFB USCINCSO QUARRY HTS PM USMISSION GENEVA 1744 DIA WASHDC -------------- header ends -------------- S E C R E T LIMA 07182 DIA FOR OA-5/OS-1D/DB-612/JSI-4B/DB-3C1 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PTER PGOV PINR PE SUBJECT: A SUMMARY OF RECENT ESTIMATES OF SENDERO LUMINOSO STRENGTH REF: 90 LIMA 12787 ¶1. (S/NF/NC/ORCON) IN THE PAST 10 MONTHS EMBASSY LIMA HAS REPORTED THREE ESTIMATES OF THE CADRE AND SUPPORT STRENGTH OF SENDERO LUMINOSO. FOR EASE OF COMPARISON WE REPEAT HERE THE DATA FROM THE THREE SOURCES. - SOURCE 1 SOURCE 2 SOURCE 3 -------------- -------------- PEOPLE'S ARMY (EGP) 2,000 1,133 2,984 LOCAL MILITIA 3,000 - 5,000 4,125 2,059 FRONT GROUPS N/A 3,111 AND 17,000 SYMPATHIZERS N/A 21,000 -------------- -------------- ¶2. (S/NF/NC/ORCON) SOURCE ONE IS A RETIRED NAVAL OFFICER, NOW LEGAL ADVISOR TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE SERVICE. IN FEBRUARY 1990 HE POLLED THE THREE MILITARY AND THE POLICE INTELLIGENCE SERVICES ON THEIR ESTIMATES OF SL STRENGTH AND DERIVED WHAT HE JUDGED TO BE AN APPROXIMATE AVERAGE OF THE FOUR SERVICE ESTIMATES. SOURCE TWO IS AN 1991 MILITARY ESTIMATE REPORTED BY PICA (HDL-16640). SOURCE THREE IS A JANUARY 1991 POLICE SUMMARY OF SL DATA SEIZED DURING RECENT RAIDS AGAINST SL SAFE HOUSES. THE POLICE CLAIM THEIR NUMBERS REPRESENT SL'S ESTIMATE OF ITS OWN STRENGTH. ¶3. (C) SOURCE THREE INCLUDES TWO OTHER CATEGORIES NOT SPECIFICALLY IDENTIFIED IN SOURCES ONE AND TWO. - -------------- -------------- POLITICAL LEADERSHIP 1,000 (MANY IN PRISON) THE "E.G.P" - SOLDIERS UNDER PERMANENT ARMS 2,500 MILITIA - TRAINED BUT NOT UNDER PERMANENT ARMS, PEOPLES COMMITTEES 2,000 NON-ARMED SUPPORTERS, FRONT GROUPS, ETC. 3,000 (MANY IN PRISON) SYMPATHIZERS AND "INFLUENCED MASSES: UNIVERSITY STUDENTS LIBERATED VILLAGERS, ETC. 20,000 - 60,000 -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) WE ARE CURRENTLY COMPILING COMPARABLE DATA ON THE TUPAC AMARU REVOLUTIONARY MOVEMENT. AS THE ANTI-TERRORISM POLICE TELL US, THIS IS MUCH HARDER DATA TO COME BY BECAUSE THE POLICE BEGAN WORK ON THE "MRTA PROBLEM" ONLY UNDER THE FUJIMORI GOVERNMENT. WE HOPE TO SEND ALONG SOME ESTIMATES OF MRTA CADRE STRENGTH IN THE NEAR FUTURE. QUAINTON =======================CABLE ENDS============================