BAGHDAD SUMMIT: THE MORNING AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 175914



PASS TO AMBASSADOR DAVID NEWTON; ALSO FOR USEC



FOLLOWING BAGHDAD 03168 DATED MAY 31 SENT ACTION

SECSTATE INFO ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PARIS BEING

REPEATED FOR YOUR INFORMATION



QUOTE



C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 03168



PARIS FOR ROSENBLATT



E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PREL, AL, XF, IZ

SUBJECT: BAGHDAD SUMMIT: THE MORNING AFTER



REF: BAGHDAD 3145



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY: THE SUMMIT, IN OUR VIEW, LEAVES ARAB

POLITICS ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE. ARAFAT, UNDER SEVERE

INTERNAL PLO PRESSURE TO JUSTIFY HIS PEACE PROCESS

APPROACH, SEEMED DRIVEN BY A SENSE OF USG BAD FAITH.

THE SAUDIS WERE A SOLID ROCK OF GOOD SENSE AND THE

EGYPTIANS, THOUGH THEY LOST SOME BATTLES ON

COMMUNIQUE RHETORIC, LOST NO PRESTIGE TO SADDAM. AS

AN EXPONENT OF LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR ARAB FEARS

AND ASPIRATIONS, SADDAM TOOK A STEP FORWARD. BUT IT

WAS THE ROILING EVENTS AROUND ARAFAT--NOT IRAQI

BLUSTERING--THAT PUT THE HEAT ON MUBARAK TO SHOW THAT

MODERATION CAN AND WILL WORK. END SUMMARY.



3. ON THIS THURSDAY HOLIDAY MORNING AFTER THE BAGHDAD

SUMMIT, THERE ARE FEW ARAB DIPLOMATS AVAILABLE WITH

WHOM WE CAN COMPARE NOTES. THE FOLLOWING IS, THERE-

FORE, CHIEFLY OUR OWN THOUGHTS AND NOTES ON THE

EVENTS AND SIGNIFICANCE OF THE DEBATES OF THE PAST

THREE DAYS.



A SUCCESSFUL SUMMIT?

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4. A SENIOR ARAB LEAGUE SECRETARIAT SOURCE RESOLUTELY

ASSERTED PLEASURE WITH WHAT HE CALLED A "MODERATE"

OUTCOME. THE ADVISOR TO KLIBI SAID MANY

DELEGATES HAD BEEN FEARFUL OF A BAGHDAD SUMMIT:

"WE DID NOT KNOW WHAT SORT OF ADVENTURE SADDAM

HUSSEIN WOULD LEAD US INTO"" IN FACT, SAID THIS

ARAB DIPLOMAT, THE SECRETARIAT FOUND THAT SADDAM

OFTEN ACTED AS AN ARBITER, TAKING HIS ROLE AS HOST

AND CHAIRMAN SERIOUSLY. AN EGYPTIAN SOURCE ALSO TOLD

US THAT THE IRAQI BULLDOZER HAS DRIVEN CHIEFLY BY

TARIQ AZIZ IN THE FOREIGN MINISTERS' DRAFTING

SESSIONS, WHERE REPORTEDLY THE EGYPTIAN FOREIGN

MINISTER TOLD HIM AND PLO "FONMIN" QADDUMI MORE

THAN ONCE THAT HE WOULD NOT PUT UP WITH THEIR

RUDENESS.



5. WE FIND IT CURIOUSLY DIFFICULT TO ASSESS THE

RESULTS OF THIS SUMMIT FROM THE U.S. POINT OF

VIEW. POLITICALLY, IT WOULD APPEAR NONE OF THE

PRINCIPAL ARAB PROTAGONISTS ACHIEVED ANYTHING

LIKE THEIR MAXIMUM GOALS, YET NONE WAS EMBARRASSED

BY INABILITY TO HOLD A MINIMUM LINE. THE EXCEPTION

TO THIS COULD BE KING HUSSEIN--WE SIMPLY DO NOT

YET KNOW IF HE HAS RECEIVED FIRM PLEDGES OF FINANCIAL

SUPPORT.



6. WHILE WE SEE UNWELCOME LANGUAGE IN THE

COMMUNIQUE, PARTICULARLY ON THE PEACE PROCESS

(E.G., THE PERENNIAL CALL FOR AN INTERNATIONAL

CONFERENCE) AND ON WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION, WE

CAN SEE NOTHING WHICH HEMS IN MOVEMENT IN A

MODERATE DIRECTION, SHOULD THE MODERATES WISH

TO CONTINUE THEIR EFFORTS. WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT,

AS A BRITISH JOURNALIST HAS WRITTEN, THE SUMMIT

ITSELF WAS IN A SENSE A "CRY OF PAIN" FROM THE

PALESTINIANS, THE EMOTIONAL CONTEXT OF EVENTS DID

NOT UPSET THE PEACE PROCESS APPLE CART.



NO LETTER FOR BUSH/GORBACHEV

--------------



7. THE VIRTUAL STALEMATE BETWEEN EGYPTIANS AND

SAUDIS VERSUS THE IRAQIS AND LIBYANS HAD NO

MORE EMBARRASSINGLY PUBLIC FAILURE THAN THE

INABILITY TO AGREE ON THE LETTER WHICH THE

IRAQI MEDIA IN PARTICULAR ANNOUNCED WOULD BE A

PRIMARY AIM OF THE MEETING. INABILITY TO AGREE ON EVEN

A CLEAR STATEMENT OF VIEWS CONCERNING THE MOST

SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE EAST EVENT IN MANY DECADES,

I.E., SOVIET-JEWISH EMIGRATION, WILL BE SEEN BY

THE WEST AS A BLACK EYE FOR "ARAB UNITY." BUT

FROM OUR VIEWPOINT IT WOULD APPEAR TO BE A

DEMONSTRATION THAT SOME ARAB LEADERS ARE AT LAST

WILLING TO FACE FACTS, AND FAHD WAS THE BEST

EXAMPLE OF ALL.





FAHD THE STATESMAN

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8. AS EMBASSY RIYADH SUGGESTED, BY ALL ACCOUNTS THE

SAUDIS HAVE BEEN TOUGH AND ACTIVE SINCE FOREIGN

MINISTER SAUD ARRIVED HERE MAY 22. MAINTAINING THE

PENINSULAR BEDOUIN GOOD TASTE OF NOT WASHING

LAUNDRY IN PUBLIC, BOTH FAHD AND SAUD WERE CLEAR

AND DETERMINED IN THE PRIVATE SESSIONS.



SADDAM: SATISFIED

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9. SADDAM WANTED TO CHANGE ARAB STRATEGY. UNTIL THE

LAST HOURS OF THE SUMMIT, HE TRIED TO DO SO, IN-

CLUDING BY USING ALL THE FORCES OF HIS MEDIA. HE

FAILED. IT IS CHIEFLY BECAUSE OF HIS EFFORTS THAT

WE SEE OBJECTIONABLE PHRASEOLOGY IN THE COMMUNIQUE,

BUT THOSE WORDS DO NOT CHANGE ARAB STRATEGY. ON

THE OTHER HAND, WE THINK THAT HE HAS ACHIEVED ANOTHER

AIM, FURTHER IMPROVING HIS IMAGE, AS A JOURNALIST

HAS SAID, MOVING FROM "WARRIOR" TO "WARRIOR STATES-

MAN." HE HAS MADE GREAT STRIDES IN CREATING A

CONSTITUENCY OF THOSE ARABS, INCLUDING PALESTINIANS,

DEEPLY FRUSTRATED BY LACK OF PROGRESS IN THE PEACE

PROCESS. AS LONG AS THE MODERATE EGYPT/USG APPRAOCH

DOES NOT WORK, THE NATURAL CONSTITUENCY FOR SADDAM'S

LOWEST COMMON DENOMINATOR POPULISM WILL GROW.



ARAFAT--THE HOT SEAT

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10. WE TAKE SERIOUSLY THE UNANIMOUS REPORTS OF

ARAFAT'S DEEP CONCERN DURING THE SUMMIT ABOUT HIS OWN

ABILITY TO HOLD HIS MAINSTREAM IN THE MODERATE

CURRENT. AN EMOTIONAL MAN, HE WAS, BY ALL ACCOUNTS,

SHAKEN BY HIS GENEVA EXPERIENCE (THE PERCEPTION OF

U.S. "BETRAYAL"). HE DID SEEM TO SPEND MORE TIME

COORDINATING WITH SADDAM THAN WITH MUBARAK, AND HAD A

TWO-HOUR MEETING AT THE END (REPORTEDLY ONE-ON-ONE),

WITH KING HUSAYN). WE BELIEVE WE HAVE CONFIRMED IT

WAS ARAFAT WHO PUSHED (UNSUCCESSFULLY) FOR CREATION

OF A JOINT ARAB DEFENSE FORCE, WHICH SUGGESTS A

PERCEIVED NEED TO PLAY TO HIS RADICAL WING. HIS

SPEECH IN OPEN SESSION, EVEN THOUGH EMOTIONALLY

DELIVERED, WAS AN EFFECTIVE AND ELOQUENT DESCRIPTION

OF PALESTINIAN PAIN AND CONFUSION.



QADHAFI'S ACTIVITIES

--------------



11. QADHAFI REMAINED SILENT THROUGHOUT THE PUBLIC

SESSIONS OF THE SUMMIT, POINTEDLY APPLAUDING ANY

ANTI-AMERICAN REMARKS. HE SPOKE ONLY ON THE FINAL

DAY. WHAT WAS SUPPOSED TO BE A PRO FORMA STATEMENT

CONGRATULATING THE SUMMIT AND SADDAM, TURNED INTO A

RAMBLING SPEECH. INTER ALIA, HE CHARGED THAT THE

U.S. F-111'S, THE PLANES SENT TO "KILL" HIM AND HIS

CHILDREN, HAD BEEN MOVED FROM TURKEY TO IRAQ'S

BORDERS TO FRIGHTEN IRAQ. HE CLAIMED: "WE WILL

DESTROY THE JEWS;" PUTTING JEWS IN THE OCCUPIED

TERRITORIES WAS "PUTTING THEM IN A CEMETERY" RATHER

THAN THE PROMISED LAND. HIS REMARKS WERE SO

DESPICABLE THAT SADDAM OSTENTATIOUSLY DISASSOCIATED

HIMSELF AND THE SUMMIT FROM THEM.



12. WE CAN PROVIDE TENUOUS CONFIRMATION OF THE

RUMORS (DAMASCUS 3325) THAT QADHAFI FROM DAMASCUS

SENT AN ENVOY TO SADDAM IN A LAST MINUTE ATTEMPT TO

RECONCILE SADDAM AND ASAD. ACCORDING TO A GULF

DIPLOMAT, THE PILOT OF THE PLANE CARRYING HIS

COUNTRY'S DELEGATION TO BAGHDAD ON MAY 27 HEARD IRAQI

CONTROLLERS TALKING WITH THE PILOT OF A LIBYAN PLANE

ENROUTE FROM DAMASCUS TO BAGHDAD, TWENTY-FOUR HOURS

BEFORE QADHAFI HIMSELF ARRIVED FOR THE SUMMIT.



U.S. "MEMORANDUM"

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13. THE TALKING POINTS FOR NEA AMBASSADORS HAVE

ENTERED HISTORY AS A MEMORANDUM FROM THE USG TO THE

AL. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, AL SYG KLIBI HAS

BEEN INSTRUCTED TO ADMONISH THE "U.S. AMBASSADOR"

ABOUT THIS INTERFERENCE IN ARAB AFFAIRS.



14. WE WERE STRUCK BY THE JORDAN TIMES STORY THAT

OUR MEMORANDUM "DEMANDED" THAT IRAQ SIGN ON TO A

CHEMICAL WEAPONS BAN WITHOUT REGARD TO ISRAEL'S

NONADHERENCE TO THE NPT. THAT REPORT CAME FROM A

JOURNALIST CLOSE TO THE PLO (JN2905093290) AND MAY

REFLECT A MORE AND MORE JAUNDICED PLO VIEW OF THE

EQUITY OF THE USG APPROACH TO MIDDLE EAST ISSUES.



NEXT STEPS

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15. FOR THE RECORD, FOLLOWING ARE THE DECISIONS THE

SUMMIT TOOK THAT REQUIRE FOLLOW-UP ACTION:



--REGULAR SUMMITS WILL OCCUR ANNUALLY, WITH THE NEXT

IN CAIRO IN NOVEMBER 1990. (COMMENT: IRAQ HAS

REPEATEDLY ADVOCATED THE NEED FOR ANNUAL AL SUMMITS.

WITH THE RETURN OF AL HEADQUARTERS TO CAIRO, THE

ISSUE OF WHERE THOSE MEETINGS CAN BE HELD HAS BEEN

SOLVED. AS WE UNDERSTAND IT FROM THE EGYPTIAN

EMBASSY, IF NO COUNTRY VOLUNTEERS TO HOST A SUMMIT,

THE AL WILL DO SO, WITH EGYPT FORMALLY DOING THE

INVITING.)



--FOREIGN, ECONOMIC AND FINANCE MINISTERS TO MEET

WITHIN TWO MONTHS TO DISCUSS JEWISH EMIGRATION, THE

ARAB STANCE TOWARD INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC BLOCS AND

ENCOURAGING OF INVESTMENT IN ARAB COUNTRIES. THEY

ARE TO MAKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO THE NEXT SUMMIT.



--BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS WITH JORDAN ON ASSISTANCE.



--ATC TO FOLLOW UP IMPLEMENTATION OF THE TA'IF

AGREEMENT.



--ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INTERNATIONAL FUND TO ASSIST

LEBANON.



--FOREIGN MINISTERS TO COMPLETE AMENDMENTS TO THE AL

CHARTER AND SUBMIT THEM TO THE NEXT SUMMIT (MAJORITY

RULE REVISITED?).



--ACTION AGAINST ANY STATE RECOGNIZING JERUSALEM AS

THE CAPITAL OF ISRAEL.



--EFFORTS TO PREVENT REPEAL OF UNGA RSOLUTION 3379,

"ZIONISM AS RACISM."

-

NO RESOLUTIONS

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16. AT THIS SUMMIT, WE ARE TOLD, THERE WERE NO

RESOLUTIONS, JUST THE COMMUNIQUE.



IRAQI MEDIA REACTION

--------------



17. IRAQ'S GOVERNMENT-DIRECTED MEDIA DID NOT SEEM TO

SUPPRESS ANY PUBLIC STATEMENT OR EVENT. ALL OPEN

SESSION SPEECHES BY SUMMIT PARTICIPANTS WERE PRINTED

IN FULL IN THE LOCAL PRESS. THE GOI'S PR MACHINERY

HAD NO COMMENT ON THE SUMMIT MAY 31 OTHER THAN TO

HAIL IT AS A GREAT SUCCESS. IRAQI TV PROVIDED FULL

COVERAGE OF "OPEN" SESSIONS, ALBEIT WITH A TWO-HOUR

DELAY, AND DID NOT EDIT OUT UNEXPECTED INTIMATE

MOMENTS (E.G., MUBARAK HARANGUING SADDAM IN THE HALL;

QADHAFI SLICKING BACK HIS HAIR PRIOR TO A GRAND

ENTRANCE).



FOR KHARTOUM AND MOGADISHU

--------------



18. WE APOLOGIZE THAT BECAUSE WE ARE SO SHORT-HANDED

WE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO TRANSLATE SUMMIT SPEECHES OF

YOUR PRESIDENTS, BUT WE WILL POUCH ARABIC VERSIONS

ASAP.



GLASPIE

UNQUOTE



BAKER