NORTHERN MINISTER DEPLORES CURRENT SITUATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOGADISHU 11138





E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, SO

SUBJ: NORTHERN MINISTER DEPLORES CURRENT SITUATION



REF: Q MOGADISHU 08622; B) MOGADISHU 10999

- C) MOGADISHU 10793



1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY: ANOTHER OF THE YOUNGER MEMBERS OF THE

CABINET HOLDS THE PRESIDENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE

COUNTRY'S MALAISE. END SUMMARY.



3. INTRODUCTION: OVER LUNCH DECEMBER 19, ABDIRAHMAN

JAMA MOHAMED, MINISTER OF LIVESTOCK,FORESTRY AND RANGE,

IDENTIFIED PRESIDENT SIAD BARRE AS THE PRINCIPAL STUMBLING

BLOCK TO PEACEFUL RESOLUTION OF SOMALIA'S MOUNTING

POLITICAL TURMOIL. AN ISSAK FROM HARGESIA, THE

YOUTHFUL MINISTER WARMLY BUT PRIVATELY ENDORSED FORMER

PRIME MINISTER MOHAMMED EGAL'S PUBLIC CALL THIS WEEK

FOR SIAD'S RESIGNATION. ABDIRAHMAN SAID HE FOUND EGAL'S

PROPOSED SUCCESSION SCENARIO QUITE REASONABLE. HOWEVER,

WHEN ASKED IF HE THOUGHT SIAD BARRE WOULD AGREE TO

STEP DOWN, ABDIRAHMAN SHOOK HIS HEAD SLOWLY AND SADLY.

ASKED WHAT PROCEDURE CURRENTLY EXISTS FOR PEACEFUL

RESOLUTION OF OUTSTANDING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE REGIME

AND THE REBELS, THE MINISTER SAID SOURCES WITHIN THE

GOVERNMENT STATE THAT THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE HAS BEEN

RESCHEDULED FOR MID-JANUARY. I THEN BRIEFED HIM ON MY

DISCUSSION WITH THE EGYPTIAN AMBASSADOR, WHO TOLD ME

THAT NO NEW DATE HAS BEEN SET FOR THE PUTATIVE TALKS

IN THE EGYPTIAN CAPITAL.



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4. CAIRO CONFERENCE: IN DISCUSSING THE POSTPONEMENT OF

THE MEETING IN CAIRO, THE MINISTER SAID THE ORDERS TO

ARREST THE MANIFESTO GROUP MEMBERS CAME DIRECTLY FROM

SIAD. HE WAS ANGRY WHEN HE DISCOVERED THEY INTENDED TO

CONSULT WITH THE SNM IN LONDON EN ROUTE TO CAIRO. WHEN

IT WAS POINTED OUT THAT REPRESENTATIVES OF THE TWO GROUPS

CERTAINLY WOULD HAVE MET IN CAIRO AND THAT SENIOR GSDR

OFFICIALS ROUTINELY CONTACT SENIOR SNM OFFICIALS WHEN

IN LONDON, ABDIRAHMAN SMILED WEAKLY.



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5. VIOLENCE: IN AN EXCHANGE ON THE VIOLENCE WHICH HAS

PROMPTED THE EVACUATION OF SO MANY FOREIGN ASSISTANCE

PERSONNEL, THE MINISTER BLAMED THE SOMALI MILITARY FOR

THE ONGOING MURDERS AND ROBBERIES. HE OPINED THAT THE

DETACHMENT RESPONSIBLE FOR SIAD'S PROTECTION, NOW

COMPOSED SOLELY OF MAREHAN TRIBE MEMBERS, SEES THE END

OF THE REGIME AND THEIR OWN PROTECTED STATUS COMING.

CONSEQUENTLY, THEY ARE TRYING TO BUILD UP PERSONAL

FINANCIAL RESERVES BY CRIMINAL ACTIVITY. HE CLAIMED

THAT EVEN SIAD BARRE HAS HAD PERSONAL VEHICLES STOLEN

BY SOLDIERS ASSIGNED TO GUARD HIM. THE MINISTER SUBSE-

QUENTLY REQUESTED MY ASSISTANCE OBTAINING VISAS FOR

YOUNG RELATIVES HE WANTED TO HELP LEAVE SOMALIA TO AVOID

BOTH VIOLENCE AND BEING IMPRESSED INTO THE SOMALI

NATIONAL ARMY.



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6. AID SUSPENSION: ABDIRAHMAN TOOK THE OCCASION TO WARN

ME THAT MANY SENIOR MEMBERS OF GOVERNMENT HOLD ME PER-

SONALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SUSPENSION OF AMERICAN

ASSISTANCE, WHICH THEY CONSIDER AN OVER-REACTION TO THE

ONGOING VIOLENCE. HIS ACCOUNT WAS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN

ME A FEW DAYS EARLIER BY THE MINISTER OF MINERAL RESOURCES

(REFTEL C). HE ADVISED ME TO SEE THE PRIME MINISTER TO

TRY TO CLEAR THE AIR.



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7. NATIONAL PROSPECTS: THE MINISTER'S DOWNBEAT

ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT SCENE GAVE RISE TO EVIDENT

PESSIMISM ABOUT SOMALIA'S FUTURE. HE RULED OUT

FEDERALISM AS INCONSISTENT WITH SOMALIA'S POVERTY,

FACTIONALISM AND THE NOMADIC LIFESTYLE OF MOST OF ITS

PEOPLE. BUT HE RELENTED WHEN IT WAS NOTED THAT

FEDERALISM COULD MEAN NO MORE THAN TWO FEDERATED POLITICAL

UNITS. HE HAD PRESUMED IT MUST ENTAIL THE ESTABLISHMENT

OF ELABORATE GOVERNMENT STRUCTURES IN EACH OF THE

COUNTRY'S 20 REGIONS. HE DID STATE HIS BELIEF THAT BOTH

THE PRIME MINISTER AND FINANCE MINISTER JAMA BARRE HAVE

NATIONAL INTERESTS AT HEART, AND HE URGED THAT I WORK

CLOSELY WITH THEM.



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8. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE: IN REVIEWING WHAT DIVIDES

SOMALIS, THE MINISTER FOCUSED ON THE DIFFERENT VALUE

SYSTEMS TO WHICH SOMALIS WERE EXPOSED IN BRITISH AND

ITALIAN ADMINISTERED SOMALIA. NORTHERNERS FIND IT

IRKSOME, HE UNDERLINED, TO HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOUTHERNERS,

BECAUSE THEY APE THE ITALIANS' CORRUPTION, INCOMPETENCE,

AND TOLERANCE FOR SHODDY WORK.





BISHOP