DISCUSSION WITH GENERAL MOHAMED ALI SAMANTAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 10701





ALSO FOR INR/B AND INR/DB



E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PREL, PINR, PGOV, SO

SUBJ: DISCUSSION WITH GENERAL MOHAMED ALI SAMANTAR



1. (C) ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SETTING: ALTHOUGH GENERAL SAMANTAR CURRENTLY HOLDS

NO OFFICIAL POSITION, HE REMAINS ONE OF SOMALIA'S

PRINCIPAL POLITICAL FIGURES. ACCORDINGLY, I CALLED ON

HIM AT HIS QUARTERS DECEMBER 4. I FOUND HIM LIVING

IN A VERY LARGE AND ELABORATELY FURNISHED HOME WITHIN

THE PERIMETER OF THE MOGADISHU OFFICERS' CLUB. HE WAS

IN APPARENT GOOD HEALTH AND SPIRITS, ALTHOUGH JUDGING

BY THE CONDITION OF HIS FINGERS HE BITES HIS NAILS

A LOT.

-

3. DOMESTIC POLITICS: THE FORMER VICE PRESIDENT,

PRIME MINISTER, DEFENSE MINISTER, ARMY COMMANDER, ETC.

PUT NO DISTANCE BETWEEN HIMSELF AND THE REGIME. HE WAS

CRITICAL OF THE OPPOSITION FOR ITS ALLEGED COMPLICITY

IN THE VIOLENCE WHICH HAS PLAGUED MOGADISHU FOR

MONTHS. (HE ADMITTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE HEAVY FIGHTING

OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WAS TRIBAL IN ORIGIN.) AFTER

BLAMING THE OPPOSITION FOR MUCH OF THE OTHER VIOLENCE,

HE ASKED RHETORICALLY HOW ITS LEADERS COULD EXPECT THE

NEW CONSTITUTION TO FUNCTION IN SUCH AN ENVIRONMENT.

HE DID NOT ADVOCATE ABANDONMENT OF THE POLITICAL REFORM

PROCESS, BUT HE ALSO HAD THE FRANKNESS TO MAKE IT CLEAR

HE IS NOT ITS ARDENT SUPPORTER. WHEN THE CAIRO ROUNDTABLE

WAS RAISED, HIS OBJECTIVE FOR THE MEETING SEEMED LIMITED

TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF A CEASE-FIRE.

-

4. ISLAMIC FERMENT: THE GENERAL SPOKE MOST INTERESTINGLY

ON THE SUBJECT OF TURBULENCE WITH THE LOCAL ISLAMIC

COMMUNITY. WITH OBVIOUS REGRET, HE SAID FOREIGN

INFLUENCES ARE DISTURBING A COMMUNITY WHICH HAD BEEN

NOTED FOR ITS TOLERANCE AND PEACEFULNESS. THE VILLIANS

HE IDENTIFIED INCLUDED MILITANTS FOR THE SEVERAL SUFI

ORDERS WHICH HAVE LONG EXISTED IN SOMALIA, AS WELL AS

MORE RECENTLY ARRIVED SECTS, E.G. THE WAHHABI OF

SAUDI ARABIA. ALTHOUGH HARDLY A RELIGIOUS MOVEMENT,

SAMANTAR MENTIONED THAT SOME OF THE YOUNG SOMALIS WHO

GO TO IRAQ TO STUDY ON IRAQI SCHOLARSHIPS RETURN AS

BAATHISTS. FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, HE CONSIDERED THIS

ELEMENT AMONG THE MOST POTENTIALLY DISRUPTIVE, ALTHOUGH

QUITE LIMITED IN INFLUENCE AT THE MOMENT. THE WHOLE

PHENOMENON OF RELIGIOUS FERMENT HE CONSIDERED MORE

SIGNIFICANT FOR SOMALIA'S FUTURE THAN IT IS AT

PRESENT, WHERE HE SAW ITS IMPACT AS MARGINAL.

-

5. THE GULF: NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE COMBAT VETERAN

RAISED THE PROSPECTS OF WAR IN THE GULF. HE DESCRIBED

SADDAM HUSSEIN, WHOM HE MET WHILE THEY WERE VICE

PRESIDENTS OF THEIR RESPECTIVE COUNTRIES, AS A PARTICULARLY

AGGRESSIVE AND AMBITIOUS MAN. HE PROFESSED DOUBT THAT

MANY SOMALIS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE REGIME'S SUPPORT

FOR THE COALITION BUT SUBSEQUENTLY CONCEDED THAT MANY

UNEDUCATED SOMALIS ADMIRE THE IRAQI LEADER FOR

DEFYING THE INFIDELS.

-

6. PERSONAL ROLE: WITHOUT SAYING ANYTHING TO INDICATE

RESENTMENT, SAMANTAR MADE IT CLEAR THAT HE CONSIDERED

HIS CURRENT ABSENCE FROM OFFICE EXCEPTIONAL. REFERRING

TO HIMSELF SEVERAL TIMES AS "A POLITICAL MAN", HE

MADE NO SECRET OF THE FACT THAT HE REMAINS POLITICALLY

ACTIVE, ALBEIT FROM A POSITION ON THE SIDELINES

RATHER THAN CENTERFIELD.





BISHOP