C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 10239


E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINS PGOV EAGR SO
SUBJECT: NEW OPPOSITION GROUP APPEARS

REF: MOGADISHU 9988


1. CONDFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY. A NOMALI OPPOSITION GROUP, THE SOMALI
DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT, HAS BEEN FORMED. ACCORDING TO USC
LEADERS, THE SDM GREW OUT OF THE SO-CALLED "MESOPOTAMIAN
MANIFESTO," WHICH WAS DRAFTED BY RAHANWEYNE FARMERS TO
PROTEST GSDR POLICIES, AND ESPECIALLY THE EXPROPRIATION
OF SOUTHERN FARM LAND TO GIVE TO MAREHAN. THE USC HAS
TRIED UNSUCCESSFULLY TO PERSUADE THE GOVERNMENTS OF
EGYPT AND ITALY TO INVITE THE SDM TO THE CAIRO
ROUNDTABLE TALKS. END SUMMARY.


3. A GROUP OF MEMBERS OF THE LARGELY-AGRICULTURAL
RAHANWEYNE CLAN HAS ISSUED WHAT THEY CALL "THE FIRST
MANIFESTO OF JUBA AND SHABELLE," NAMED FOR THE AREA OF
THE TWO RIVERS OF SOUTHERN SOMALIA WHERE THE RAHANWEYNE
LIVE. THE DOCUMENT HAS SINCE BECOME KNOWN ALSO AS THE
"MESOPOTAMIAN MANIFESTO." POST IS POUCHING AN
UNOFFICIAL EMBASSY TRANSLATION OF THE DOCUMENT TO AF/E.


4. THE MANIFESTO DETAILS THE EVILS BROUGHT BY THE
CURRENT CIVIL WAR, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE PROBLEMS CAUSED
TO FARMERS. IN PARTICULAR, THE AUTHORS CRITICIZE THE
GSDR FOR HAVING EXPROPRIATED FARM LAND TO GIVE IT TO
MAREHAN, WHO FENCED IT OFF, ALLOWED IT TO LIE FALLOW,
AND TOOK ADVANTAGE OF THEIR STATUS OF "FARMERS" TO
QUALIFY FOR LOANS.


5. THE MANIFESTO CALLS FOR THE FORMATION OF A
PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT, UNSPECIFIED CQNGES IN THE
ADMINISTRATIVE STRUCTURE OF THE REGIONS AND TOWNS OF
SOMALIA, THE RETURN OF ILLEGALLY-TAKEN STATE PROPERTY
AND MONEY, AND THE NULLIFICATION OF THE FARM OWNERSHIP
LAW OF 1975, WHICH THEY HOLD RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FALL
IN FARM PRODUCTION.


6. THE AUTHORS REJECT THE USE OF ARMED STRUGGLE TO
REACH THEIR GOALS. THEY ALSO DISAPPROVE OF THE NEW
CONSTITUTION "BECAUSE OF ITS MANY DEFECTS," WHICH THEY
DO NOT ENUMERATE. THEY CALL FOR A CONFERENCE TO BE
CONVENED TO PREPARE A NEW CONSTITUTION.


7. AT A LUNCHEON WITH LEADERS OF THE ABGAL/MURUSADE
WING OF THE UNITED SOMALI CONGRESS (USC) ON NOVEMBER
25, THE AMBASSADOR WAS TOLD THAT THE DRAFTERS OF THE
MESOPOTAMIAN MANIFESTO HAD FORMED AN OPPOSITION GROUP
CALLED THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT, AND THAT THE
USC HAD--UNSUCCESSFULLY, SO FAR--ASKED THE GOVERNMENTS
OF EGYPT AND ITALY TO INVITE THE SDM TO THE CAIRO
ROUNDTABLE TALKS.


8. COMMENT. RESENTMENT OVER MAREHAN EXPROPRIATIONS OF
LAND, MOST OF WHICH OCCURRED YEARS AGO, HAS BEEN
INCREASING. AS REPORTED REFTEL, MEMBERS OF A SMALL
DIR SUB-CLAN, THE BIO-MA'AL HAVE RECENTLY TAKEN UP ARMS
AGAINST MAREHAN LAND OWNERS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF
MOGADISHU.


9. IT IS NUT SURPRISING THAT THE SDM SHOULD BE
SUPPORTED BY THE RELATIVELY PACIFIC ABGAL/MURUSADE
WING OF THE USC. BOTH GROUPS CALL FOR THE FORMATION OF
A PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT AND THE DRAFTING OF A NEW
CONSTITUTION, ALTHOUGH THE ABGAL/MURUSADE DO NOT REJECT
THE CURRENT ONE OUTRIGHT. NEITHER USC WING REJECTS
ARMED OPPOSITION TO THE GSDR, OF COURSE, BUT THE ABGAL/
MURUSADE ARE CLOSE TO THE MANIFESTO GROUP, WHICH
FAVORS PEACEFUL NEGOTIATION. END COMMENT.


BISHOP