C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 07632

E.O.12356; DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL PINS PGOV SU EG NL GE IT UR MO
SUBJECT: DIPLOMATS AGREE--BASHIR IS HERE TO STAY, IF NOT
FOREVER AND A DAY


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. AT LUNCH HOSTED BY CHARGE JULY 24 SIX SENIOR
DIPLOMATS ASSIGNED TO KHARTOUM EXPRESSED THEIR CONVICTION
THAT THE BASHIR GOVERNMENT WILL REMAIN IN POWER FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE--AT LEAST SIX MONTHS, POSSIBLY A
YEAR. UNLIKE EARLIER MEETINGS WHICH WITNESSED WIDELY
DIFFERING VIEWS, THIS TIME OUR COLLEAGUES WERE UNANIMOUS,
NOT ONLY IN THEIR PREDICTIONS, BUT ALSO IN THEIR REASONS
FOR THE PREDICTIONS.


3. THE FOLLOWING CHARGES/DEPUTY CHIEFS OF MISSION
ATTENDED AS DID POLCOUNS:

DR. AXEL WEISHAUPT, FRG
MR. VICTOR GOGUITIDZE, USSR
MR. MARCO CONTICELLI, ITALY
MR. MOHAMED ABDEL WANIS, EGYPT
MR. JONE BOS, THE NETHERLANDS
MR. MOHAMED BOU DRIF, MOROCCO


4. ALL OF OUR COLLEAGUES ATTRIBUTED OMAR'S STRENGTH TO
THE UBIQUITOUS SECURITY SERVICE AND THE GOVERNMENT'S
DEMONSTRATED WILL TO TAKE DRASTIC ACTION AGAINST
OPPONENTS. THE SUDANESE, THEY AVERRED, HAVE BEEN COWED
AND POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP ELIMINATED FOR THE
TIME BEING. THAT SAID, THEY BELIEVE THAT OMAR CANNOT
REST EASILY; THAT HE WILL ULTIMATELY BE REPLACED BUT NOT
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.


5. THEY ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE THE GROWING NIF INFLUENCE AND
BELIEVE THAT WHEN THE NIF ATTEMPTS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE
MILITARY (WHICH THEY CONSIDER INEVITABLE), THE REACTION
WILL BE VIOLENT AND BLOODY WITH OMAR AND THE NIF BOTH
BEING DEPOSED. ABDEL WANIS (EGYPT) WAS THE MOST
EXPANSIVE AND KNOWLEDGEABLE OF THE GROUP, ESPECIALLY
REGARDING CONTINUING LOW LEVEL DISCONTENT WITHIN SUDAN'S
MILITARY. HE DID, HOWEVER, PERHAPS IN RECOGNITION OF
EGYPTIAN POLICY, OVEREMPHASIZE THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL
ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) IN THE GOS.


O'NEILL