DIPLOMATS AGREE--BASHIR IS HERE TO STAY, IF NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L KHARTOUM 07632 E.O.12356; DECL:OADR TAGS: PREL PINS PGOV SU EG NL GE IT UR MO SUBJECT: DIPLOMATS AGREE--BASHIR IS HERE TO STAY, IF NOT FOREVER AND A DAY ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. AT LUNCH HOSTED BY CHARGE JULY 24 SIX SENIOR DIPLOMATS ASSIGNED TO KHARTOUM EXPRESSED THEIR CONVICTION THAT THE BASHIR GOVERNMENT WILL REMAIN IN POWER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE--AT LEAST SIX MONTHS, POSSIBLY A YEAR. UNLIKE EARLIER MEETINGS WHICH WITNESSED WIDELY DIFFERING VIEWS, THIS TIME OUR COLLEAGUES WERE UNANIMOUS, NOT ONLY IN THEIR PREDICTIONS, BUT ALSO IN THEIR REASONS FOR THE PREDICTIONS. ¶3. THE FOLLOWING CHARGES/DEPUTY CHIEFS OF MISSION ATTENDED AS DID POLCOUNS: DR. AXEL WEISHAUPT, FRG MR. VICTOR GOGUITIDZE, USSR MR. MARCO CONTICELLI, ITALY MR. MOHAMED ABDEL WANIS, EGYPT MR. JONE BOS, THE NETHERLANDS MR. MOHAMED BOU DRIF, MOROCCO ¶4. ALL OF OUR COLLEAGUES ATTRIBUTED OMAR'S STRENGTH TO THE UBIQUITOUS SECURITY SERVICE AND THE GOVERNMENT'S DEMONSTRATED WILL TO TAKE DRASTIC ACTION AGAINST OPPONENTS. THE SUDANESE, THEY AVERRED, HAVE BEEN COWED AND POTENTIAL ALTERNATIVE LEADERSHIP ELIMINATED FOR THE TIME BEING. THAT SAID, THEY BELIEVE THAT OMAR CANNOT REST EASILY; THAT HE WILL ULTIMATELY BE REPLACED BUT NOT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ¶5. THEY ALSO ACKNOWLEDGE THE GROWING NIF INFLUENCE AND BELIEVE THAT WHEN THE NIF ATTEMPTS TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE MILITARY (WHICH THEY CONSIDER INEVITABLE),THE REACTION WILL BE VIOLENT AND BLOODY WITH OMAR AND THE NIF BOTH BEING DEPOSED. ABDEL WANIS (EGYPT) WAS THE MOST EXPANSIVE AND KNOWLEDGEABLE OF THE GROUP, ESPECIALLY REGARDING CONTINUING LOW LEVEL DISCONTENT WITHIN SUDAN'S MILITARY. HE DID, HOWEVER, PERHAPS IN RECOGNITION OF EGYPTIAN POLICY, OVEREMPHASIZE THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ISLAMIC FRONT (NIF) IN THE GOS. O'NEILL