SULTAN: BULLISH ON RAFSANJANI AND BEARISH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABU DHABI 00536


E. O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL PGOV US IR TC
SUBJECT: SULTAN: BULLISH ON RAFSANJANI AND BEARISH
ON ZAYED


1. (S - ENTIRE TEXT)


2. SUMMARY: SHEIKH SULTAN OF SHARJAH WAS, AS USUAL,
BULLISH ABOUT RAFSANJANI'S MODERATIONS AND CONTROL OF
EVENTS IN TEHRAN AND CLAIMED THAT THE REAL WILD CARD
WHICH RAFSANJANI FEARED WAS THE BAZARRIS, NOT THE
RADICAL CLERGY. SULTAN SAID THAT AT UK REQUEST HE HAD
BEEN WORKING TO WIN RELEASE OF TERRY WAITE, BUT THAT
EACH TIME HE MADE PROGRESS, SOMETHING LIKE THE RUSHDIE
AFFAIR INTERVENED. CLOSER TO HOME, SULTAN CRITICIZED
ZAYYED FOR HIS HARSH PUBLIC COMMENTS ABOUT THE UNITED
STATES AND SAID THAT HE, SULTAN, WOULD TAKE UT UP WITH
ZAYYED. WE DOUBT THAT ZAYYED WILL BE AMUSED. END
SUMMARY.


3. DURING AMBASSADOR'S INITIAL COURTESY CALL
JANUARY 23 ON SHARJAH RULER, SHEIKH SULTAN BIN
MOHAMED AL-QASSIMI, SHEIKH SULTAN REVEALED THAT HE
HAD RECENTLY MET WITH ALI SHAMS-ARDAKANI, FORMER
IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO KUWAIT AND PRESENTLY DEPUTY
MINISTER OF MINES AND METALS. SULTAN TOLD AMBASSADOR
AND ACCOMPANYING CONSUL GENERAL LIMBERT THAT
ARDAKANI SAID PRESIDENT HASHEMI-RAFSANJANI AND A
SMALL GROUP OF ALLIES, INCLUDING FOREIGN MINISTER
VELAYATI, DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER BESHARATI, AND
IRAN'S AMBASSADOR TO THE UAE HADI NAJAFABADI
WERE ALL WORKING TO IMPROVE IRAN'S RELATIONS WITH
ITS NEIGHBORS, WITH THE WEST, AND EVENTUALLY WITH THE
UNITED STATES. ACCORDING TO SHAMS-ARDAKANI, THE
PRESIDENT WAS MOST WORRIED BY OPPOSITION FROM WITHIN
THE BAZARR. HE KNEW FROM PERSONAL EXPERIENCE HOW THE
BAZARRIS COULD TIP THE BALANCE OF POWER. MOHTASHEMI-
POUR AND HIS ALLIES IN PARLIAMENT WERE LESS WORRI-
SOME, BUT BAZARRIS HAD POWER TO DISRUPT THE IRANIAN
ECONOMY AND DISCREDIT HASHEMI'S GOVERNMENT.


4. AMBASSADOR SAID THAT HOPEFUL WORDS FROM
TEHRAN HAD YET TO BE MATCHED WITH ANY HELPFUL MOVES
ON THE ISSUE OF HOSTAGES IN LEBANON. SUCH MOVES
WERE ESSENTIAL BEFORE THE U.S. COULD CONSIDER TAKING
A MORE POSITIVE STANCE TOWARD TEHRAN. SULTAN NOTED
THAT HE HAD TRIED ACTING AS AN INTERMEDIARY TO
ARRANGE FREEDOM OF BRITISH HOSTAGE, TERRY WAITE, BUT
EVERY TIME HE MADE ANY PROGRESS, SOMETHING SUCH AS
THE SALMAN RUSHDIE AFFAIR, WOULD FRUSTRATE HIS EFFORTS.
SULTAN FELT, HOWEVER, THAT TIME WAS AGAIN RIPE FOR
YET ANOTHER EFFORT AND IMPLIED THAT THE DEAL FOR
WAITE WHICH HE HAD BEEN DISCUSSING WOULD INVOLVE
PAYMENTS. HE GAVE NO INDICATION THAT U.K. WAS
CONDONING PAYMENTS OR WHERE FUNDS MIGHT COME FROM.
HE WAS NOT IN DOUBT AS TO U.S. POLICY IN THIS REGARD.


5. SWITCHING SUBJECTS, SULTAN SAID HE THOUGHT
ZAYYED SHOULD NOT HAVE AIRED HIS FEELINGS ABOUT
THE U.S. IN PUBLIC. IF HE HAD SUCH STRONG FEELINGS
ON THE PALESTINIAN ISSUE, HE SHOULD HAVE VOICED THEM IN
PRIVATE CHANNELS EITHER IN WRITTEN OR ORAL COMMU-
NICATION. AMBASSADOR REPLIED THAT PERHAPS ZAYYED'S
REMARKS INDICATE HOW STRONGLY HE FEELS ABOUT THE
ISSUE. NEVERTHELESS, SUCH STATEMENTS ARE NOT
HELPFUL AND DO NOT ACCURATELY REFLECT THE RELATIONSHIP.


6. SULTAN SAID THAT HIS WIFE HAD BEEN PRESSING HIM
TO TAKE THIS QUESTION UP WITH ZAYYED. HOWEVER, THE
STRAIN IN RELATIONS WITH ZAYYED HAD PRECLUDED CANDID
DISCUSSION. NOW, ACCORDING TO SULTAN, RELATIONS WERE
BETTER SO HE COULD SPEAK HIS MIND.


7. COMMENT: SULTAN WAS BULLISH ON RAFSANJANI'S
PROSPECTS AND DISMISSED HIS RADICAL OPPOSITION DESPITE
TWO FAILED ATTEMPTS ON RAFSANJANI'S LIFE. SULTAN
HAS CONSISTENTLY OVERESTIMATED RAFSANJANI'S CONTROL
AS WELL AS, IN OUR VIEW, HIS COMMITMENT TO MODERATION.
SULTAN SEEMED SINCERE IN HIS COMMITMENT TO HELP THE
BRITISH, OR US IF WE WANTED, ON THE HOSTAGES, BUT WE
STRONGLY SUSPECT HE OVERPLAYS HIS ACCESS AND INFLUENCE.
AS FOR HIS COMMENTS ON ZAYYED, SULTAN MAY THINK ALL IS
WELL NOW IN THEIR RELATIONSHIP, BUT IF HE STARTS
GIVING GRATUITOUS ADVICE AGAIN, WE DOUBT THAT ZAYYED
WILL TAKE KINDLY TO IT. SULTAN MAY HAVE LITTLE CHOICE
IN THE MATTER, HOWEVER, IF, AS HE IMPLIES, HIS WIFE
IS SET ON BEARDING ZAYYED FOR HIS UNDIPLOMATIC BEHAVIOR.


WALKER