IRAQI MISSILE ATTACKS ON TEHRAN

S E C R E T STATE 064278 FROM INR/DAS:DACLARK E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: IZ IR MOPS MCAP SUBJECT: IRAQI MISSILE ATTACKS ON TEHRAN ¶1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT ¶2. FOLLOWING IS A SPOT INTELLIGENCE REPORT ISSUED BY INR WITH INFORMATION AS OF 0900 EDT 1 MARCH 1988: ¶3. IRAQ HAS ANNOUNCED A TOTAL OF 13 MISSILE STRIKES AGAINST TEHRAN SINCE THE AFTERNOON OF FEBRUARY 29. SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE CONFIRMS AT LEAST TEN OF THE FIRINGS, AT LEAST THREE WERE TRACKED TO TEHRAN. INITIAL PRESS REPORTS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CASUALTIES. ¶4. THESE ATTACKS WERE PROMPTED BY IRANIAN FIRING OF THREE SCUD MISSILES AT BAGHDAD THE NIGHT OF FEBRUARY 28-29, WHICH IN TURN WAS RETALIATION FOR AN IRAQI AIR STRIKE ON THE REY OIL REFINERY IN TEHRAN'S SUBURBS FEBRUARY 27. ¶5. OUR BEST GUESS, BASED ON EARLIER REPORTS OF IRAQI EXPERIMENTATION, IS THAT IRAQ IS FIRING REDUCED-PAYLOAD SCUD MISSILES. THE ORDINARY SCUD CAN ONLY REACH HALFWAY TO TEHRAN, BUT THE IRAQIS WERE CLAIMING TO HAVE DOUBLED THE MISSILE'S RANGE TO OVER 600 KM., WHICH WOULD JUST MAKE IT TO TEHRAN FROM THE KNOWN LAUNCHING AREA NEAR AL-AMARA. IRAQ IS CREDITED WITH OVER 140 SOVIET-ORIGIN SCUD SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES. ¶6. BOTH SIDES APPEAR TO HAVE DECIDED THAT US EFFORTS TO OBTAIN A RESOLUTION TO ENFORCE UNSC RES. 598 AGAINST IRAN HAVE STALLED. THUS, THE RESTRAINT SHOWN BY IRAN AND IRAQ UNTIL RECENTLY WILL INCREASLINGLY FRAY. IRAN IS LIKELY TO RESPOND WITH FURTHER SCUD ATTACKS AGAINST BAGHDAD AND ARTILLERY SHELLING OF IRAQI BORDER CITIES. THE IRANIANS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO LAUNCH ONE OR MORE MAJOR GROUND ATTACKS IN THE NEAR FUTURE. WHITEHEAD