IRAQI MISSILE ATTACKS ON TEHRAN

S E C R E T STATE 064278

FROM INR/DAS:DACLARK

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: IZ IR MOPS MCAP
SUBJECT: IRAQI MISSILE ATTACKS ON TEHRAN


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT


2. FOLLOWING IS A SPOT INTELLIGENCE REPORT ISSUED BY INR
WITH INFORMATION AS OF 0900 EDT 1 MARCH 1988:


3. IRAQ HAS ANNOUNCED A TOTAL OF 13 MISSILE STRIKES
AGAINST TEHRAN SINCE THE AFTERNOON OF FEBRUARY 29.
SPECIAL INTELLIGENCE CONFIRMS AT LEAST TEN OF THE
FIRINGS, AT LEAST THREE WERE TRACKED TO TEHRAN. INITIAL
PRESS REPORTS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL CASUALTIES.


4. THESE ATTACKS WERE PROMPTED BY IRANIAN FIRING OF
THREE SCUD MISSILES AT BAGHDAD THE NIGHT OF FEBRUARY
28-29, WHICH IN TURN WAS RETALIATION FOR AN IRAQI AIR
STRIKE ON THE REY OIL REFINERY IN TEHRAN'S SUBURBS
FEBRUARY 27.


5. OUR BEST GUESS, BASED ON EARLIER REPORTS OF IRAQI
EXPERIMENTATION, IS THAT IRAQ IS FIRING REDUCED-PAYLOAD
SCUD MISSILES. THE ORDINARY SCUD CAN ONLY REACH HALFWAY
TO TEHRAN, BUT THE IRAQIS WERE CLAIMING TO HAVE DOUBLED
THE MISSILE'S RANGE TO OVER 600 KM., WHICH WOULD JUST
MAKE IT TO TEHRAN FROM THE KNOWN LAUNCHING AREA NEAR
AL-AMARA. IRAQ IS CREDITED WITH OVER 140 SOVIET-ORIGIN
SCUD SURFACE-TO-SURFACE MISSILES.


6. BOTH SIDES APPEAR TO HAVE DECIDED THAT US EFFORTS TO
OBTAIN A RESOLUTION TO ENFORCE UNSC RES. 598 AGAINST IRAN
HAVE STALLED. THUS, THE RESTRAINT SHOWN BY IRAN AND IRAQ
UNTIL RECENTLY WILL INCREASLINGLY FRAY. IRAN IS LIKELY
TO RESPOND WITH FURTHER SCUD ATTACKS AGAINST BAGHDAD AND
ARTILLERY SHELLING OF IRAQI BORDER CITIES. THE IRANIANS
ARE ALSO LIKELY TO LAUNCH ONE OR MORE MAJOR GROUND
ATTACKS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.


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