STAYING THE COURSE IN THE PERSIAN GULF

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 271057

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: MOPS MCAP PREL US XF NATO
SUBJECT: STAYING THE COURSE IN THE PERSIAN GULF


1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.)


2. WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FORMAL CEASE-FIRE BETWEEN
IRAN AND IRAQ ON AUGUST 20, SOME ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE
U.S. HAS ALREADY DECIDED TO BEGIN SOON TO REDUCE ITS
NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE GULF. RECENT STORIES IN THE U.S.
PRESS HAVE FUELED THIS SPECULATION. AS APPROPRIATE,
POSTS SHOULD USE THE TALKING POINTS PROVIDED BELOW TO
BRIEF THEIR HOST GOVERNMENTS (ESPECIALLY GCC STATES,
EUROPEAN ALLIES WITH A NAVAL PRESENCE IN THE GULF, AND
IRAQ) ON U.S. POLICY.


3. TALKING POINTS:

--WE HAVE WORKED CLOSELY TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE A NEGOTIATED
SETTLEMENT TO THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. WE ARE PLEASED WITH GCC
AND ALLIED COOPERATION AND BELIEVE IT WAS INSTRUMENTAL IN
THE POSITIVE RESULTS OF OUR MUTUAL EFFORTS--THE
CEASE-FIRE AND PROGRESS TOWARD FULL IMPLEMENTATION OF 598.

--WE HAVE CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINED THAT OUR FORCE
AUGMENTATION AND THAT OF OUR ALLIES WAS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THE THREAT POSED TO OUR SHIPPING, AND TO THE SECURITY
AND STABILITY OF OUR FRIENDS IN THE REGION. WE HAVE ALSO
CONSISTENTLY MAINTAINED THAT, SHOULD THE THREAT ABATE, WE
ARE PREPARED TO REVIEW AND, AS APPROPRIATE, TO REDUCE OUR
NAVAL DEPLOYMENTS IN THE REGION.

--GIVEN THE CLOSE COOPERATIVE AND SUPPORTIVE NATURE OF
OUR PRESENCE, THAT OF OUR ALLIES, AND OUR FRIENDS IN THE
GULF, WE WILL ONLY DO SO AFTER CONSULTING CLOSELY WITH
THE GCC STATES AND AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR EUROPEAN
ALLIES. WE WILL NOT TAKE PREEMPTIVE OR UNILATERAL
ACTIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO CONSULT WITH YOU AS WE
ASSESS THE SITUATION IN VIEW OF THE IMMINENT CEASE-FIRE.

--AS YOU ARE WELL AWARE, THE U.S. HAS HAD A NAVAL
PRESENCE IN THE PERSIAN GULF FOR OVER FORTY YEARS. THAT
PRESENCE CLEARLY PRE-DATES THE GULF WAR; WE INTEND TO
MAINTAIN AN APPROPRIATE NAVAL PRESENCE, EVEN AFTER THE
PROBLEMS BETWEEN IRAN AND IRAQ ARE RESOLVED.

--THE U.S. INTENDS TO STAY THE COURSE IN THE GULF. OUR
POLICY REFLECTS OUR NATIONAL INTERESTS AS WE HAVE DEFINED
THEM OVER MORE THAN EIGHT ADMINISTRATIONS. IT HAS STRONG
BIPARTISAN AND PUBLIC SUPPORT.

(END TALKING POINTS)


4. FYI ONLY: THE SIZE AND STRUCTURE OF OUR AUGMENTED
NAVAL FORCES WILL REMAIN COMMENSURATE WITH THE THREAT.
AS THAT THREAT DIMINISHES, WE WILL REDUCE THE FORCE AS
APPROPRIATE. THE DEPARTMENT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVISE WHEN
FORCE LEVEL CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED IN ORDER TO ALLOW THE
EMBASSIES TO CONSULT WITH THE STATES OF THE REGION AND
OUR ALLIES. END FYI. YYY


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