SOMALI INSURGENCY: ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY?

C O N F I D E N T I A L MOGADISHU 08032 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL MOPS PGOB PINS ET UR US SO SUBJECT: SOMALI INSURGENCY: ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY? REF: (A) STATE 214518, (B) MOGADISHU 7910 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT ¶2. I TOOK ADVANTAGE OF A MEETING JULY 3 WITH ACTING PERMSEC ABDULLAHI EGAL NUR TO PROBE A BIT REGARDING GSDR'S CURRENT POSITION ON ETHIOPIAN ROLE IN NORTHERN INSURGENCY. I HOPED IN PARTICULAR TO OBTAIN INSIGHT INTO AMBASSADOR ADDOU'S DEMARCHE "UNDER INSTRUCTIONS" (REF A),IN WHICH HE SEEMED TO TAKE A MUCH MORE FORCEFULLY CRITICAL LINE ON ETHIOPIANS THAN HAD PRESIDENT SIAD HIMSELF IN OUR CONVERSATION JULY 1 (REF B). ¶3. CHOOSING HIS WORDS CAREFULLY, AMB ABDULLAHI TOLD ME SOMALIA DID NOT CONSIDER ETHIOPIANS "CLEAN-HANDED", BUT IT LACKED HARD EVIDENCE OF ANY SORT TO SUBSTANTIATE ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY. SOMALI GOVERNMENT WAS DEEPLY DISTURBED BY THE FACT THAT SNM FORCES HAD NOT/NOT BEEN DISARMED BEFORE BEING EXPELLED ACROSS BORDER. IT WAS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, WHETHER THIS WAS A DELIBERATE OVERSIGHT OR MERELY INADVERTENCY. ¶4. AMB ABDULLAHI THEN POINTED TO "GROSS EXAGGERATION" BY ETHIOPIAN AUTHORITIES OF NUMBERS OF SOMALI REFUGEES THAT HAD REPORTEDLY FLED ACROSS BORDER TO ESCAPE FIGHTING IN NORTHERN REGION. ALTHOUGH ETHIOPIANS CLAMED TO HAVE RECEIVED OVER ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND REFUGEES, SOMALI GOVERNMENT WAS "CERTAIN" THAT FIGURE WAS NO HIGHER THAN THIRTY THOUSAND. I SUGGESTED TO ABDULLAHI THAT THIS HAD LITTLE BEARING ON QUESTION OF ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY WITH SNM, BUT HE CONTENDED THAT IT IMPLIED AN ANTAGONISTIC BIAS ON ETHIOPIA'S PART. ¶5. I ASKED SPECIFICALLY ABOUT EVIDENCE THAT ETHIOPIA HAD HELPED RESUPPLY SNM AFTER ATTACKS BEGAN. HE REPLIED THERE WAS NO/NO HARD EVIDENCE, ONLY "CIRCUMSTANTIAL" INDICATIONS. ¶6. AS I LEFT THE MEETING WITH ABDULLAHI, ESCORTED BY PROTOCOL CHIEF ABDI HAJI, I REGISTERED MILD SURPRISE TO THE LATTER THAT ABDULLAHI HAD NOT/NOT MENTIONED INSTRUCTIONS TO AMB ADDOU (REF A) TO RAISE THIS ISSUE WITH A/S CROCKER. ABDI RESPONDED THAT HE WAS UNAWARE THA ANY SUCH INSTRUCTIONS HAD BEEN SENT TO WASHINGTON FROM MINISTRY. HOWEVER, HE CONFIDED THAT ADDOU HAD TELEPHONED PRESIDENT SIAD DIRECTLY ON SEVERAL OCCASIONS RECENTLY, IMPLYING THAT INSTRUCTIONS COULD HAVE BEEN CONVEYED TO ADDOU DIRECTLY BY PRESIDENT. ¶7. ABDI HAJI ALSO VOLUNTEERED HIS SUGGESTION THAT CROCKER SHOULD CLOSELY QUESTION SOVIET VICE MINISTER ADAMISHIN ABOUT ETHIOPIA'S ROLE AND WHAT SOVIETS WERE PREPARED TO DO TO ENSURE ETHIOPIANS KEPT HANDS OFF. HE EXPLAINED THAT, WHEN ADAMISHIN VISITED MOGADISHU IN APRIL, HE MADE A BIG FUSS ABOUT WHETHER SOMALIA COULD PERSUADE USG TO SERVE AS "GUARANTOR" OF SOMALI-ETHIOPIAN PEACE AGREEMENT. SOVIETS, HE DECLARED, WERE PREPARED TO SIGN ON ETHIOPIA'S BEHALF. - ¶8. COMMENT: JUDGING FROM WHAT I'VE HEARD FROM PRESIDENT SIAD AND AMB ABDULLAHI, I SUSPECT OUR FRIEND ADDOU MAY HAVE PROMPTED THE PRESIDENT TO ISSUE THE INSTRUCTIONS HE THEN CARRIED TO A/S CROCKER. MORE AND MORE, IT APPEARS THAT PEOPLE AROUND SIAD ARE PUSHING HIM IN WHATEVER DIRECTION APPEARS TO SERVE THEIR OWN INTERESTS (OR THEIR OWN CONCEPT OF THE NATION'S INTERESTS),WHILE SIAD HIMSELF IS BUFFETED BY THEIR CROSS PURPOSES. I DO NOT/NOT BELIEVE WE ARE ANY CLOSER THAN BEFORE TO SEEING HARD EVIDENCE OF ETHIOPIAN COMPLICITY, BUT IT IS OBVIOUS THAT -- WHETHER SIAD LIKES IT OR NOT -- THE BLUSH IS OFF OF HIS VAUNTED PEACE AGREEMENT WITH ETHIOPIA. CRIGLER