IRAQ KEEPS THREATENING TO SEND MISSILES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 02571



E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR

TAGS: PREL, MOPS, KPAL, IZ

SUBJECT: IRAQ KEEPS THREATENING TO SEND MISSILES



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY: EVERY DAY THE IRAQIS TURN OUT MILITARY

COMMUNIQUES THREATENING "SEVERE PUNISHMENT" AGAINST

IRAN FOR CONTINUING TO SHELL IRAQI BORDER TOWNS (TYPI-

CALLY ONLY DARBANDIKHAN, WHICH TODAY SCARCELY FITS THE

DEFINITION OFIA CIVILIAN TARGET). WITH NEARLY THREE

WEEKS ELAPSING SINCE THE END OF THE MISSILE WAR, IT

SEEMS MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE IRAQIS INTEND TO

DO NO MORE THAN KEEP THE IRANIANS AWARE THAT THEIR

"FINGER IS ON THE TRIGGER" SHOULD THE IRANIANS TRY

ANYTHING BIG, ALTHOUGH THE VALUE OF THE IRAQI WARNINGS

IS GROWING INCREASINGLY HOLLOW. END SUMMARY.



3. THERE HAS BEEN NO RELENTING YET IN THE STRIDENCY

OF IRAQI WARNINGS THAT IF THE IRANIANS DO NOT DESIST

IN SHELLING BORDER CITIES AND "VIOLATING THE CONDI-

IONS STIPULATED FOR THE HALT OF IRANIAN CITIES,"

IRAQ WILL METE OUT "SEVERE PUNISHMENT" (CLEAR REFER-

ENCE TO RESUMPTION OF USE OF MISSILES). THE ODD THING

LS THAT IN THE PAST WEEK THE IRAQI MEDIA HAVE MENTION-

ED ONLY TWO SUCH "BORDER CITIES"--DARBANDIKHAN (NEAR

HALABJA) EVERY DY, AND ON ONE OCCASION ABUL-KHASIB

(NEAR BASRA). BOTH ARE ABANDONED AND BOTH SIT

ASTRIDE IMPORTANT HIGHWAYS CLOSE TO IRANIAN LINES

THAT ARE OBVIOUS TARGETS FOR IRANIAN ARTILLERY.

(INDEED, IT IS ESSENTIAL FROM A MILITARY STANDPOINT

FOR IRAN TO TRY TO INTERDICT MOVEMENT ALONG BOTH

HIGHWAYS.)



4. FOR THEIR PART, THE IRAQIS STRUCK THE SHIRAZ

REFINERY AND PETROCHEMICAL COMPLEX ON MAY 4. THE

SUBSEQUENT MILITARY COMMUNIQUE MADE IT CLEAR THAT

THEY INTEND TO CONTINUE HITTING SUCH ECONOMIC TARGETS

FOR THE DURATION OF THE WAR.



5. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, AS WE OBSERVE FROM FBIS

REPORTAGE OF IRANIAN BROADCASTS, IS THE FERVOR WITH

WHICH THE IRANIANS DENY STRIKING ANY CIVILIAN

TARGETS IN IRAQ--INCLUDING DENYING ANY SHELLING

OF DARBANDIKHAN. OUR AUSTRALIAN COLLEAGUES TELL US

THAT TEHRAN IS JUST BEGINNING TO COME BACK TO LIFE

FULLY. THEIR EMBASSY IN TEHRAN ASSESSES THAT THE

IRANIANS ARE EXTREMELY KEEN TO PREVENT A RESUMPTION

OF THE MISSILE EXCHANGE--UNTIL, THAT IS, IRAN FEELS

ON A TECHNOLOGICAL PAR WITH IRAQ AND CAN DELIVER

JUST AS STRONG BLOWS AGAINST BAGHDAD AS THE IRAQIS

CAN AGAINST TEHRAN. FOR THEIR PART, THE IRAQIS

HAVE ALSO BEEN KEEN TO DENY IRANIAN CLAIMS OF

IRAQI STRIKES ON IRANIAN BORDER AREAS.



6. MEANWHILE, IRAQ CONTINUES OFFICIALLY TO BUBBLE

OVER WITH PLEASURE AT THE VICTORY AT FAO AND THE

MIGHTINESS OF THE HUSSEIN MISSILE, NOW FOLLOWED BY

THE ABBAS MISSILE OF A CLAIMED EVEN LONGER STRIKING

POWER. SADDAM HUSSEIN HAS MADE NO FEWER THAN FOUR

VISITS TO AN EXHIBITION OF THE MILITARY INDUSTRY

COMMISSION, AND ON MAY 5 HE BESTOWED ON THE COMMIS-

SION'S DIRECTOR--HIS SON-IN-LAW AND COUSIN HUSAYN

KAMIL (JUST PROMOTED FROM COLONEL TO BRIGADIER)--

AND SEVERAL OF ITS STAFF "RAFIDAIN MEDALS FOR

DISTINGUISHED SERVICE." IN VIRTUALLY EVERY HIGH-

LEVEL MILITARY MEETING SADDAM NOW HAS, HUSAYN KAMIL

IS PHOTOGRAPHED AT HIS SIDE, ALONG WITH HIS BROTHER-

IN-LAW AND COUSIN DEFENSE MINISTER ADNAN KHAYRALLAH.

THE BIG NEWS IN THE PRESS MAY 8 WAS THE OFFICIAL

DELIVERY BY PARTY NUMBER-TWO IZZAT IBRAHIM TO SADDAM

OF HIS LATEST BIRTHDAY PRESENT, A MINIATURE OF THE

HUSSEIN MISSILE FROM THE PEOPLE OF SALAH AL DIN

(TIKRIT) PROVINCE. THE BIG NEWS ON MAY 9 WAS

SADDAM'S PRESIDING OVER DISCUSSION OF FINAL DESIGNS

FOR A MONUMENT TO BE ERECTED AT THE BILAT AL-SHUHADA

SCHOOL, DESTROYED BY AN IRANIAN MISSILE OCTOBER 13,

AND HIS REVIEWING A HALL FULL OF BIRTHDAY PRESENTS

"GIVEN TO HIM BY THE IRAQI PEOPLE SHOWING THEIR JOY."



7. SADDAM'S MAY 1 INTERVIEW WITH AN EGYPTIAN

JOURNALIST SANA AL-SA'ID, WAS FINALLY PUBLISHED MAY 6

(SEE FBIS JNO70944). SADDAM TYPICALLY PREFERS ARAB

TO NON-ARAB JOURNALISTS, PARTLY OUT OF NATIONALISM

AND PARTLY BECAUSE THEY TEND TO ASK LESS DELICATE

QUESTIONS. SANA AL-SA'ID DID TRY A FEW INTERESTING

QUESTIONS, BUT SADDAM DOGGEDLY DODGED THEM. SHE

TRIED TO GET HIM TO SAY SOMETHING PROVOCATIVE ABOUT

HOW FAO IS A HARBINGER OF ARAB VICTORY OVER JERUSALEM,

BUT HE MEALY-MOUTHED ABOUT LACK OF ARAB UNITY AND

PROBLEMS WITH WORLD OPINION. SHE TRIED TO GET HIM

TO CASTIGATE OMAN, QATAR, AND THE EMIRATES, BUT HE

DID NOT BITE. SHE INSINUATED SUPERPOWER UNHELP-

FULNESS, BUT THERE WERE NO WORDS OF CRITICISM

FOR THE SOVIET UNION, AND HE EXCUSED U.S. NAVAL

PRESENCE IN THE GULF AS BEING LONGSTANDING AND,

IN ANY CASE, SOMETHING FOR WHICH IRAN IS ENTIRELY

TO BLAME. HE REFUSED TO BLAME THE PLO FOR RAP-

PROCHEMENT WITH SYRIA. HE LIED EFFUSIVELY ABOUT

HOW THE IRAQIS NOW RELY ON THEMSELVES FOR MOST

WEAPONS, INCLUDING THE HUSSEIN MISSILE, ALTHOUGH

HE DID CONTRADICTORILY ADMIT THAT "PURCHASES OF

SOVIET ARMS ARE STILL BIG."



8. ARAFAT, WHO ARRIVED IN BAGHDAD FROM DAMASCUS ON

APRIL 26, IS STILL IN TOWN, GETTING PUBLICITY FOR

HIS PROMINENCE IN SADDAM'S BIRTHDAY CELEBRATIONS AND

IN MEETINGS WITH SADDAM ON APRIL 27 AND MAY 7. BE-

TWEEN THESE DATES THERE WERE MEETINGS OF THE PLO

EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE AND THE HIGHER COMMITTEE FOR

OCCUPIED LAND AFFAIRS. PLO STATEMENTS AS PUBLISHED

IN THE BAGHPAD PRESS ARE MAINLY DEVOTED TO PRAISE OF

THE VICTORY AT FAO "LEADING TO VICTORY IN JERUSALEM."



9. SAUDI ARABIA'S RUPTURE OF RELATIONS WITH IRAN

HAS BEEN A MAJOR SOURCE OF PRAISE AMONG EDITORIALISTS,

WITH A STRONG UNDERCURRENT THEME THAT OTHER ARAB

STATES MUST FOLLOW SUIT. DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER TAHA

YASIN RAMADAN, CARRYING SADDAM'S LETTER OF PRAISE

FOR SAUDI ARABIA'S TOUGH STAND AGAINST IRAN, MET

KING FAHD IN RIYADH MAY 6 AND MADE HIS SECOND UMRA

TO MECCA IN LESS THAN THREE WEEKS.



10. COMMENT: IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE IS HOPE FOR

A CONTINUED LULL IN THE MISSILE WAR. WHILE THE

IRAQIS GREATLY RELISHED THE DISRUPTION IN TEHRAN,

THEY ARE RESTRAINED BY COUNTERVAILING FACTORS.

BAGHDAD WAS ALSO DISRUPTED, EVEN IF TO A MUCH RE-

DUCED DEGREE THAN TEHRAN; BAGHDADIS WERE BEGINNING

TO BE VERY MUCH ON EDGE. THE IRAQIS MAY HAVE

WORRIED ABOUT SUPPLY PROBLEMS; NO MATTER WHICH

REPORT ONE BELIEVES, IRAQ'S SUPPLY OF MISSILES IS

NOT LIMITLESS. PERHAPS MOST IMPORTANT, THE

IRAQIS MAY HAVE--OR SHOULD HAVE, BY ANY LOGIC--

CALCULATED THAT MISSILES ARE MORE EFFECTIVE AS A

DETERRENT IF NOT OVERUSED. NOW THE IRANIANS

PAINFULLY KNOW WHAT THE IRAQIS CAN DO, AND TEHRAN

IS BEING REPOPULATED; HENCEFORTH, THE IRANIANS

WILL HAVE TO CALCULATE CAREFULLY ABOUT THEIR

ATTACKS ON THE GROUND OR WITH MISSILES.



11. IN THE LONGER RUN, THE PICTURE MAY NOT BE

SO HOPEFUL. WE ARE IN A REGIONAL ARMS RACE, AND

IF THE IRANIANS ARE ABLE TO CATCH UP, A DEADLIER

MISSILE WAR MAY ULTIMATELY BE IN THE OFFING. IN

THIS RACE, THE IRANIANS HAVE A DISTINCT ADVANTAGE

OVER THE IRAQIS, NAMELY, THAT BAGHDAD AND OTHER

IRAQI POPULATION CENTERS LIE FOUR OR FIVE TIMES

NEARER THE BORDER THAN DO MOST IRANIAN CITIES.

THE IRANIANS THEREFORE ONLY NEED SMALLER MISSILES

WHICH MAY BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SPEEDIER PRODUCTION

IN GREATER QUANTITY, OR IN THE CASE OF MISSILES OF

SIMILAR SIZE AND PROPELLENT, THEY ARE ABLE TO

PACK IN MUCH MORE EXPLOSIVES. EITHER PROSPECT

SHOULD GIVE THE IRAQIS PAUSE, AS THEY CONGRATULATE

THEMSELVES ON THEIR NEW MISSILES.



NEWTON