Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
88BAGHDAD1181
1988-03-02 10:53:00
SECRET
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:
IRAQ-IRAN WAR: ESCALATION OF THE WAR: NEED TO PRESSURE IRAQ TO DE-ESCALATE
how-toO 021053Z MAR 88 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6465 INFO GULF WAR COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE 0261
S E C R E T BAGHDAD 01181
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, IZ, IR, US
SUBJ: IRAQ-IRAN WAR: ESCALATION OF THE WAR: NEED TO
PRESSURE IRAQ TO DE-ESCALATE
S E C R E T BAGHDAD 01181
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, IZ, IR, US
SUBJ: IRAQ-IRAN WAR: ESCALATION OF THE WAR: NEED TO
PRESSURE IRAQ TO DE-ESCALATE
1. (SECRET-ENTIRE TEXT)
2. NOW THAT THE WAR OF THE CITIES HAS RESUMED
(REGARDLESS OF WHO ACTUALLY STARTED IT),THE IRAQIS
APPEAR TO FEEL THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1980-81
THEY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE OVER
IRAN. ALTHOUGH UNDERSECRETARY HAMDOON ARGUED TO ME
YESTERDAY THAT IRAQ WANTS TO ASSURE MUTUAL DETERRENCE
AGAINST HITTING THE TWO CAPITALS, THE IRAQIS ARE
SHOWING NONE OF THE MEASURED RESPONSE SUCH A GOAL
WOULD IMPLY. RATHER THEY HAVE FIRED NINETEEN
MISSILES TO DATE, NAMED BY THEM PROVOCATIVELY THE
"HUSSEIN" AFTER SHIA ISLAM'S MOST HOLY FIGURE, AND,
EVEN MORE PROVOCATIVELY, HAVE FIRED THE LATEST ONE
AGAINST THE HOLY CITY OF QUM.
3. WE BELIEVE THAT THE IRAQIS SEE THIS STRATEGIC
ADVANTAGE AND ARE PRESSING IT HOME. IF THEY HAVE
STOCKPILED A LARGE SUPPLY OF MISSILES (WE ASSUME
BUT DO NOT KNOW THAT THEY ARE SOVIET SS-12'S),THEY
HAVE BADLY OUTGUNNED THE IRANIANS WHO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED SUPPLY OF OBSOLETE, SLOW-RELOADING SCUD B'S
WITH A FEW LAUNCHERS. THE IRAQIS ALSO KNOW THAT THEY
HAVE AN ADVANTAGE ON THE GROUND. IRAN IS NOT READY
FOR AN ALL-OUT OFFENSIVE IN THE SOUTH. IF IT IS
GOADED TO ATTACK WITH WHAT THEY HAVE, THEY FACE
ALMOST CERTAIN DEFEAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG COUNTER-ATTACK FROM IRAQ. THE WINDOW FOR
ATTACKING IS RAPIDLY RUNNING OUT FOR IRAN, SINCE THE
PRIME WINTER IAPYJV S PQMF AILL BE OVER BY THE
END OF THIS MONTH, HARDLY ENOUGH TIME EVEN IF A NEW
RECRUITING OF BASIJ STIMULATED BY THE MISSILE ATTACKS
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY.
4. THE IRAQ MOTIVE IN FORCING AN ESCALATION OF
THE FIGHTING IS CLEARLY TO MAKE IRAN GIVE UP ITS
WAR AIMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE INITIAL AIR
RAIDS ON KHARG ISLAND THREE YEARS AGO, IRAQ SENSES
THAT IT REALLY HAS THE ABILITY TO FORCE AN END TO
HOSTILITIES, RATHER THAN JUST TO REACT. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS NOT LIKELY TO LISTEN TO APPEALS
TO EASE OFF.
5. OUR CONDEMNATION OF BOTH SIDES FOR ATTACKING
CIVILIAN TARGETS WAS JUST RIGHT. I BELIEVE THAT, IF
THE ATTACKS GO ON ANOTHER DAY, WE SHOULD GO BEYOND
THE CONDEMNATION AND PRASS IRWY TT BE-ESCALATE. I
AM NOT SANGUINE THAT THEY WILL LISTEN, SINCE THEY
SEE A VITAL OPPORTUNITY AND THEIR RECORD FOR LISTENING
TO OUR UNWELCOME ADVICE IS NOT ENCOURAGING. BUT IN
THE INTEREST OF OUR EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE A QUICK
PEACEFUL END TO THIS CONFLICT AND ABOVE ALL TO
AVOID THE DANGERS OF AN INTENSIFIED WAR, I BELIEVE
WE SHOULD MAKE THE EFFORT.
NEWTON
E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: PREL, MOPS, IZ, IR, US
SUBJ: IRAQ-IRAN WAR: ESCALATION OF THE WAR: NEED TO
PRESSURE IRAQ TO DE-ESCALATE
1. (SECRET-ENTIRE TEXT)
2. NOW THAT THE WAR OF THE CITIES HAS RESUMED
(REGARDLESS OF WHO ACTUALLY STARTED IT),THE IRAQIS
APPEAR TO FEEL THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE 1980-81
THEY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT STRATEGIC ADVANTAGE OVER
IRAN. ALTHOUGH UNDERSECRETARY HAMDOON ARGUED TO ME
YESTERDAY THAT IRAQ WANTS TO ASSURE MUTUAL DETERRENCE
AGAINST HITTING THE TWO CAPITALS, THE IRAQIS ARE
SHOWING NONE OF THE MEASURED RESPONSE SUCH A GOAL
WOULD IMPLY. RATHER THEY HAVE FIRED NINETEEN
MISSILES TO DATE, NAMED BY THEM PROVOCATIVELY THE
"HUSSEIN" AFTER SHIA ISLAM'S MOST HOLY FIGURE, AND,
EVEN MORE PROVOCATIVELY, HAVE FIRED THE LATEST ONE
AGAINST THE HOLY CITY OF QUM.
3. WE BELIEVE THAT THE IRAQIS SEE THIS STRATEGIC
ADVANTAGE AND ARE PRESSING IT HOME. IF THEY HAVE
STOCKPILED A LARGE SUPPLY OF MISSILES (WE ASSUME
BUT DO NOT KNOW THAT THEY ARE SOVIET SS-12'S),THEY
HAVE BADLY OUTGUNNED THE IRANIANS WHO HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED SUPPLY OF OBSOLETE, SLOW-RELOADING SCUD B'S
WITH A FEW LAUNCHERS. THE IRAQIS ALSO KNOW THAT THEY
HAVE AN ADVANTAGE ON THE GROUND. IRAN IS NOT READY
FOR AN ALL-OUT OFFENSIVE IN THE SOUTH. IF IT IS
GOADED TO ATTACK WITH WHAT THEY HAVE, THEY FACE
ALMOST CERTAIN DEFEAT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A
STRONG COUNTER-ATTACK FROM IRAQ. THE WINDOW FOR
ATTACKING IS RAPIDLY RUNNING OUT FOR IRAN, SINCE THE
PRIME WINTER IAPYJV S PQMF AILL BE OVER BY THE
END OF THIS MONTH, HARDLY ENOUGH TIME EVEN IF A NEW
RECRUITING OF BASIJ STIMULATED BY THE MISSILE ATTACKS
BEGINS IMMEDIATELY.
4. THE IRAQ MOTIVE IN FORCING AN ESCALATION OF
THE FIGHTING IS CLEARLY TO MAKE IRAN GIVE UP ITS
WAR AIMS. FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE INITIAL AIR
RAIDS ON KHARG ISLAND THREE YEARS AGO, IRAQ SENSES
THAT IT REALLY HAS THE ABILITY TO FORCE AN END TO
HOSTILITIES, RATHER THAN JUST TO REACT. UNDER THESE
CIRCUMSTANCES, IT IS NOT LIKELY TO LISTEN TO APPEALS
TO EASE OFF.
5. OUR CONDEMNATION OF BOTH SIDES FOR ATTACKING
CIVILIAN TARGETS WAS JUST RIGHT. I BELIEVE THAT, IF
THE ATTACKS GO ON ANOTHER DAY, WE SHOULD GO BEYOND
THE CONDEMNATION AND PRASS IRWY TT BE-ESCALATE. I
AM NOT SANGUINE THAT THEY WILL LISTEN, SINCE THEY
SEE A VITAL OPPORTUNITY AND THEIR RECORD FOR LISTENING
TO OUR UNWELCOME ADVICE IS NOT ENCOURAGING. BUT IN
THE INTEREST OF OUR EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE A QUICK
PEACEFUL END TO THIS CONFLICT AND ABOVE ALL TO
AVOID THE DANGERS OF AN INTENSIFIED WAR, I BELIEVE
WE SHOULD MAKE THE EFFORT.
NEWTON