PLO AND THE INTIFADA

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 10345



E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: KPAL, PGOV, PREL, JO, IS

SUBJECT: PLO AND THE INTIFADA



1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY: DURING A COURTESY CALL ON THE CHARGE

AUGUST 29, RATIB AMAR OF THE MFA'S DEPARTMENT OF

PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS, DERIDED THE "INCOMPETENCE" OF THE

PLO AND SAID THAT THE ORGANIZATION WAS LARGELY

RESPONSIBLE FOR CREATING DISUNITY AND TENSIONS WITHIN

THE VARIOUS PALESTINIAN GROUPS IN THE OCCUPIED

TERRITORIES. HE OUTLINED IN SOME DETAIL DEVELOPMENTS

AMONG THOSE GROUPS. AMAR ADDED THAT THE IDF LACKED

DISCIPLINE AND WAS NOT ADEPT AT PUTTING DOWN

DISTURBANCES. END SUMMARY.



3. RATIB AMAR, A RETIRED ARMY OFFICER AND, ACCORDING TO

SOME OF HIS COLLEAGUES, NOW THE GID'S (THE INTELLIGENCE

DEPARTMENT) POINT-MAN IN THE MFA'S DEPARTMENT OF

PALESTINIAN AFFAIRS (FORMERLY THE MINISTRY OF OCCUPIED

TERRITORIES AFFAIRS),CALLED ON THE CHARGE AUGUST 29.

AMAR, WHO HIMSELF IS FROM NEAR HEBRON, MADE NO ATTEMPT

TO HIDE HIS DISDAIN FOR THE PLO. HIS BRIEF INCLUDED THE

FOLLOWING POINTS:



-- THE PLO FACES A HISTORIC OPPORTUNITY TO SHOULDER ITS

RESPONSIBILITY, I.E. DECLARE A PROVISIONAL GOVERNMENT

AND PROVIDE SERVICES TO PALESTINIANS. IF PAST

EXPERIENCE IS ANY INDICATION, IT WILL LET THE

OPPORTUNITY SLIP. (HE EXPECTS THAT WHEN THE PLO FAILS,

ITS LEADERSHIP WILL BE DESTROYED FROM WITHIN THE

OCCUPIED TERRITORIES -- BUT THE INSIDERS WILL BE

RADICALS.)



-- THE PLO LEADERSHIP IS UNABLE TO COORDINATE RESISTANCE

ACTIVITY AND ITS INCOMPETENCE HAS CREATED SCHISMS AND

SPLITS WITHIN THE ORGANIZATION. THE ISRAELIS, AFTER A

BUNGLING START, ARE LEARNING HOW TO EXPLOIT THESE

SPLITS. FOR EXAMPLE, ISRAELI-SPONSORED LEAFLETS ARE

BEGINNING TO APPEAR IN THE NAME OF THE INTIFADA

LEADERSHIP.



-- THE EMERGENCE OF HAMAS (WHICH INCLUDES ISLAMIC

FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS) IS A DANGEROUS TREND. CHRISTIANS

AND MOSLEMS HAVE LIVED PEACEFULLY TOGETHER IN THE WEST

BANK, BUT THE RELIGIOUS FERVOR OF HAMAS COULD DISRUPT

THIS HARMONY.



-- THE EMERGENCE OF HAMAS HAS PROVOKED THE ESTABLISHMENT

OF A "CHRISTIAN-RESISTANCE MOVEMENT" (HAMAM) WHICH IS

NOW ACTIVE IN CHRISTIAN AREAS SUCH AS BETHLEHEM AND

RAMALLAH.



-- THE COMMUNISTS ARE ALSO INDEPENDENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

NORTH, JERUSALEM, AND THE CHRISTIAN AREAS AS WELL. THE

PLO HAS BOTCHED ITS ROLE OF COORDINATING THE RESISTANCE.



-- THE PLO WILL BE UNABLE TO FILL THE VACUUM LEFT BY

JORDANIAN WITHDRAWAL. CONSEQUENTLY, THE PEOPLE IN THE

OCCUPIED TERRITORIES WILL SUFFER SINCE JORDAN NO LONGER

PROVIDES NEEDED SERVICES.



4. AMAR, A RETIRED INFANTRY BRIGADIER, WAS ALSO

CRITICAL OF THE IDF. ACCORDING TO AMAR, THE IDF HAS

MISHANDLED THE DISTURBANCES BY USING WRONG TACTICS AND

EQUIPMENT. AMAR CLEARLY IMPLIED THAT THE JORDANIANS

WOULD HAVE STAMPED OUT A SIMILAR DISTURBANCE MUCH

SOONER. THE JOB CALLS FOR POLICE, NOT SOLDIERS, HE

SAID. AS A FORMER ARMY OFFICER, AMAR WAS PARTICULARLY

UNIMPRESSED WITH THE LACK OF DISCIPLINE AMONG ISRAELI

SOLDIERS. HE SAID THAT THE SLOVENLY APPEARANCE OF IDF

SOLDIERS NOT ONLY DOES NOT INSPIRE ANY RESPECT AMONG THE

POPULATION BUT IN FACT ENCOURAGES FURTHER

DEMONSTRATIONS. AMAR SAID THAT THE ISRAELI ARMY --

ORGANIZED FOR WAR -- HAS BEEN SENT ON A MISSION THAT

SHOULD BE RESERVED FOR THE POLICE. THE EFFECT WILL BE

TO REDUCE THE IDF'S CAPABILITY AS WELL.



5. COMMENT: AMAR IS A CLOSE ASSOCIATE OF LABOR

MINISTER DUDIN (FORMER MINISTER OF OCCUPIED TERRITORIES

AFFAIRS). AMAR'S PAST CREDENTIALS LEND CREDIBILITY TO

HIS ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION ON THE WEST BANK AND

GAZA. HOWEVER, WE ARE A LITTLE SURPRISED AT THIS

UNSOLICITED BRIEFING (FOR THAT IT WAS) BY A SENIOR GOJ

OFFICIAL.



THEROS