MBEKI'S RELEASE -- WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

C O N F I D E N T I A L PRETORIA 17012

AF FOR ASSISTANT SECRETARY CROCKER FROM AMBASSADOR PERKINS

E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR
TAGS: SF PGOV
SUBJECT: MBEKI'S RELEASE -- WHAT DOES IT MEAN?


1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. I BELIEVE THAT THE RELEASE OF GOVAN MBEKI SHOULD
BE SEEN AS A SIGNIFICANT EFFORT ON THE PART OF THE
SOUTH AFRICAN GOVERNMENT TO LOOSEN UPTHE POLITICAL
GRIDLOCK IN THE COUNTRY ON THE KEY ISSUE OF
BLACK/WHITE DIALOGUE. I SUSPECT, HOWEVER, THAT THE
GESTURE AND THE OTHER RELEASES WHICH WE HOPE WILL
OCCURIN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS ARE AIMED MORE AT
DRAWING MODERATE INTERNAL BLACK LEADERS INTO A
DIALOGUE, RATHER THAN AT ENGAGING THE EXTERNAL ANC.
SIMPLE HUMANITARIAN AND SECURITY CONSIDERATIONS,
I.E., THE POSSIBLE DEATH IN PRISON OF AGED ANC
PARTIARCHS, ALSO PLAYED A ROLE IN PRETORIA'S GAMBIT.


THE HUMANITARIAN ANGLE


3. DFA DIRECTOR GENERAL NIEL VAN HEERDEN TOLD US
YESTERDAY JUST BEFORE MBEKI'S RELEASE THAT TO SOME
EXTENT P.W. BOTH'S DECISION SHOULD BE SEEN AS
SOMETHING "FROM ONE OLD MAN TO ANOTHER." VAN HEERDEN
SAID THAT IN THE NOVEMBER 4 SAG SESSION WHICH
FINALIZED THE DECISION, P.W. SAID THE MAN IS SEVENTY
SEVEN YEARS OLD AND IN GOOD HEALTH FOR A MAN THAT
AGE, BUT HE IS NOT A YOUNG MAN. P.W., IN VAN
HEERDEN'S VIEW, SEEMED TO BE MUSING OVER HIS OWN
CIRCUMSTANCES IN THE TWILIGHT YEARS OF HIS LIFE.


4. VAN HEERDEN SAID THAT THERE HAD BEEN NO ARGUMENT
ABOUT THE UNCONDITIONALNATURE OF MBEKI'S RELEASE.
THERE WAS ALSO GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT, IF ALL WENT
WELL, THIS WOULD BE ONLY THE FIRST STEP INA PROCESS
INVOLVING THE FREEING OF MORE ANC PRISONERS OVER THE
NEXT FEW MONTHS. HE DID NOT SPECIFICALLY MENTION
MANDELA BUT OUR ASSUMPTION IS THAT HE WOULD BE THE
FINAL ACT IN THE PROCESS.


THE POLITICAL ANGLE


5. VAN HEERDEN STRESSED THAT IN A BROADER CONTEXT
THE GOVERNMENT IS WELL AWARE THAT THE SITUATION IS
"TUMBLING HEAD OVER HEELS TOWARD SOME KIND OF
CATASTROPHE. A GESTURE OF SOME SORT WAS NEEDED TO
BREAK UP THE MOMENTUM AND BRING PEOPLE AROUND TO THE
NEED TO TALK.


6. CENTRAL TOTHIS CONTEXT IN MY VIEW IS THE
PERCEPTION INSIDE THE SAG,RECENTLY EXPRESSED TO ME
BY STOFFEL VAN DER MERWE, THAT CREDIBLE BLACK LEADERS
INSIDE SOUTH AFRICA SUCH AS BUTHELEZI HAVE PAINTED
THEMSELVES INTO A CORNER BY REFUSING TO NEGOTIATE
WITH PRETORIA UNTIL THE POOLSMORE/ROBBEN ISLAND
GOVERNMENT HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO MEET THAT CONDITION.
HOWEVER, IN DOING SO, THERE IS NO INTENTION AT THIS
STAGE TO DEAL WITH THE LUSAKA AND.


7. I WOULD SERIOUSLY DOUBT THAT STOFFEL HAS ANY
ILLUSIONS ABOUT AN IMPENDING SEA OF CHANGE IN BLACK
REJECTION OF CHRIS HEUNIS' NATIONAL COUNCIL.
HOWEVER, IN PLAYING A LONGER TERM GAME VIS A VIS
INTERNAL BLACK POLITICAL FIGURES, THE SAG MUST FEEL
IT MAY NOW BE ABLE TO MOVE A FEW PIECES IN THE RIGHT
DIRECTION. IN THAT CONNECTION, INFORMATION DUPUTY
DIRECTOR DAVID STEWART REMARKED TO US EARLIER THIS
WEEK THAT WHILE THE GOVERNMENT IS OPERATING FROM A
POSITION OF PHYSICAL STRENGTH,AT SOME STAGE A
POLITICAL DIALOGUE MUST TAKE PLACE, "IF NOT IN THE
NATIONAL COUNCIL, THEN IN WHATEVER FORUM FOLLOWS IT
OR WHATEVER COMES AFTER THAT."


OUR REACTION


8. IN SUM, WE SHOULD HEARTILY WELCOME MBEKI"S
RELEASE AS WE HAVE DONE AND GENTLY PRESS THE SAG TO
FOLLOW UP WITH OTHER PRISONERS IN THE MONTHS AHEAD.
(AT THE SAME TIME, WE MIGHT QUIETLY URGE THE ANC NOT
TO CROW VICTORY TOO LOUDLY.) HOWEVER, WE SHOULD HAVE
NO ILLUSION THAT THIS PARTICULAR SAG STRATEGY --
ASIDE FROM ATTEMPTING TO CLAIM SOME HIGH GROUND -- IS
IN A SENSE AIMED AT A NEAR TERM SAG/ANC DIALOGUE.

PERKINS


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