INSIDE THE LTTE: A LOOK AT THE TIGERS'

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 COLOMBO 01041

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINS PINR CE
SUBJECT: INSIDE THE LTTE: A LOOK AT THE TIGERS'
COMMAND STRUCTURE AND REGIONAL LEADERS

REF: 86 COLOMBO 6174



1. CONFIDENTIAL--ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: PRABHAKARAN HAS DIVIDED HIS LIBERATION
TIGERS OF TAMIL EELAM INTO FIVE POLITICO-MILITARY
REGIONS, EACH COMMANDED BY A REGIONAL LEADER RESPONSIBLE
TO PRABHAKARAN. IN TURN THESE REGIONAL COMMANDERS HAVE
SUBORDINATE AREA COMMANDERS UNDER THEIR CONTROL. THE
LTTE STRUCTURE IS A TIGHT PYRAMID, WITH POWER CONCEN-
TRATED AT THE APEX--PRABHAKARAN. HIS LIEUTENANT IN
JAFFNA IS KITTU, WHO SPORTS A LEOPARD-SKIN HOLSTER,
KEEPS A PET MONKEY, AND IS GENERALLY KNOWN AS
PRABHAKARAN'S "ENFORCER." THE TOP MAN IN MANNAR IS
RADHA, THE REPUTED LEADER OF THE LTTE RAID ON
ANURADHAPURA IN 1985 THAT LEFT 150 SINHALESE CIVILIANS
DEAD. IN BATTICALOA THE LTTE LEADER IS KUMARAN, A
WILY GUERRILLA WHO HAS NARROWLY ESCAPED CAPTURE OR
DEATH TWICE IN THE LAST 6 MONTHS. GIVEN WHAT WE
KNOW OF THE LTTE'S STRUCTURE AND OPERATIONS, IF AN
LTTE-CONTROLLED TAMIL EELAM WERE TO BE ESTABLISHED,
IT WOULD BE DOMINATED BY PRABHAKARAN, WOULD BE
HIGHLY CENTRALIZED AND AUTHORITARIAN (ALTHOUGH NOT
VERY IDEOLOGICAL),AND BE PLAGUED BY CLEAVAGES BASED
ON REGION, CASTE, AND RELIGION. END SUMMARY.


3. INTRODUCTION: THE LIBERATION TIGERS OF TAMIL
EELAM (LTTE) ARE NOW INDISPUTABLY THE PREDOMINANT
TAMIL SEPARATIST ORGANIZATION, HAVING COWED RIVAL
MILITANT GROUPS, SUPPLANTED THE MODERATE TULF
AS THE LEADING POLITICAL LIGHT OF THE TAMIL CAUSE,
SLIPPED THE BONDS OF INDIAN TUTELAGE, AND ESTABLISHED
A FUNCTIONING (IF LIMITED) CIVIL ADMINISTRATION IN
TERRITORY UNDER THEIR CONTROL. EMBASSY COLOMBO IN
PAST WEEKS HAS FOCUSED ON THE LTTE POLITICO-MILITARY
STRUCTURE IN SRI LANKA AND ON THE LOCAL LTTE LEADERS
WHO OPERATE UNDER PRABHAKARAN'S DIRECTION IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. REFTEL CONTAINS BIOGRAPHIC
INFORMATION ON THE LTTE LEADER, VELUPILLAI PRABHAKARN,
WHO RECENTLY RETURNED TO JAFFNA AFTER 3 YEARS OF EXILE
IN TAMIL NADU. THE FOLLOWING SECTIONS DESCRIBE THE
LTTE COMMAND STRUCTURE AND GIVE PROFILES OF SOME
OF THE LTTE REGIONAL AND SUB-REGIONAL COMMANDERS.
THIS MESSAGE SEEKS TO PROVIDE A GLIMPSE INSIDE THE LTTE
AND INFORMATION ON CHARACTERISTIC LOCAL COMMANDERS.
EMBASSY HAS INFORMATION ON THREE OF THE FIVE REGIONAL
COMMANDERS AND WILL INFORM ADDRESSEES IF SUBSEQUENT
DATA ON TRINCOMALEE AND VAVUNIYA LTTE LEADERS COMES
TO LIGHT. INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS FROM OPEN,
PUBLISHED SOURCES, AS WELL AS FROM THE SRI LANKAN
POLICE, MILITARY, FOREIGN AND SRI LANKAN JOURNALISTS
WHO HAVE TRAVELED IN THE NORTH AND EAST, AND LOCAL
PRIVATE CONTACTS.

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ORGANIZATION AND STRUCTURE
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4. LUCKY FIVE; A REGIONAL COMMAND STRUCTURE:
THE LTTE HAS DIVIDED THE NORTH AND EAST INTO FIVE
REGIONAL COMMAND STRUCTURES, EACH WITH AN OVERALL
REGIONAL COMMANDER WHO REPORTS DIRECTLY TO PRABHAKARAN.
EACH OF THE FIVE REGIONS IS FURTHER SUBDIVIDED INTO
SMALLER AREAS, WITH A DESIGNATED LOCAL LEADER WHO
REPORTS TO THE REGIONAL COMMANDER. THE FIVE REGIONS
ARE JAFFNA, MANNAR, VAVUNIYA (COMPRISED OF VAVUNIYA,
KILINOCHCHI, AND MULLAITTIVU DISTRICTS),TRINCOMALEE,
AND BATTICALOA (BATTICALOA AND AMPARAI DISTRICTS).
THE NUMBER FIVE IS CONSIDERED TO BE VERY LUCKY IN
TAMIL HINDU MYTHOLOGY, AND ONE MILITARY CONTACT SAYS
PRABHAKARAN SET UP FIVE REGIONAL COMMANDS FOR THIS
REASON. THE FIVE REGIONAL COMMANDERS SIT ON THE
LTTE'S CENTRAL COMMITTEE, ALONG WITH PRAKHAKARAN AND
A FEW SELECT OTHERS. THE REGIONAL COMMANDERS ARE
CONCURRENTLY MILITARY AND POLITICAL LEADERS; THERE IS
NO DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN THE LTTE'S POLITICAL AND
MILITARY HIERARCHY.


5. HIGHLY CENTRALIZED: THE LTTE OPERATIONAL COMMAND
STRUCTURE IS HIGHLY CENTRALIZED AND IS DOMINATED BY
PRABHAKARAN. JAFFNA PLAYS THE KEY ROLE OVERALL, BOTH
BECAUSE OF THE LTTE CONTROL AND FREEDOM OF OPERATION
THERE, AS WELL AS THE FACT THAT JAFFNA TAMILS DOMINATE
THE LTTE'S RANKS. THE TIGERS RUN A SOPHISTICATED
RADIO COMMUNICATIONS NETWORK BETWEEN THE REGIONAL
COMMANDS AND JAFFNA, A SYSTEM WHICH MANY CLAIM IS A
PRIMARY REASON FOR THE LTTE'S CENTRALIZED COORDINATION,
DISCIPLINE, AND EFFECTIVENESS. THE REGIONAL COMMANDERS
ESTABLISH AND MAINTAIN THEIR AUTHORITY BY MEANS OF
STRICT CONTROL OF ALL MUNITIONS AND SUPPLIES DISTRIBUTED
THROUGH THE LTTE STRUCTURE. SUB-REGIONAL COMMANDERS HAVE
GUNS, AMMO, AND OTHER SUPPLIES DOLED OUT TO THEM BY THE
REGIONAL COMMANDERS. ONE POLICE CONTACT CLAIMED THAT THE
SUBSTANTIAL RANSOM COLLECTIONS MADE BY THE LTTE ARE ALL
IMMEDIATELY SENT BACK TO JAFFNA, FOR LATER DISTRIBUTION
FOR THE WHOLE ORGANIZATION AS PRABHAKARAN SEES FIT.
ACCORDING TO A PRESS REPORT, "EVERYONE IS REQUIRED TO
TAKE AN OATH OF ALLEGIANCE TO PRABHAKARAN. THE REGIONAL
LEADERS ARE HANDPICKED BY PRABHAKARAN HIMSELF ON THE
BASIS OF TRUST, LOYALTY, AND EXPERIENCE."


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JAFFNA
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6. KITTU; MACHO ANIMAL LOVER:
THE JAFFNA REGION COMMANDER AND REPUTEDLY THE
SECOND MOST POWERFUL MAN IN THE LTTE IS KITTU
(WHOSE REAL NAME IS SATHASIVAM KRISHNAKUMAR).
KITTU, 27, IS SAID TO BE A CLOSE RELATIVE OF
PRABHAKARAN AND IS FROM THE SAME FISHERMAN
CASTE (KARAYAR) AND HOMETOWN (VALVEDDITURRAI).
HE IS REPORTED TO SPEAK ONLY TAMIL--ALTHOUGH
HE MAY UNDERSTAND SOME ENGLISH--AND TO HAVE
COMPLETED THE "ORDINARY LEVEL" EXAMS (10 YEARS
OF EDUCATION). PICTURES HAVE APPEARED IN THE
COLOMBO PRESS OF KITTU HOLDING HIS PET MONKEY,
"BILL," AND ONE FOREIGN JOURNALIST WHO INTERVIEWED HIM
SAID HE WAS CONSTANTLY SURROUNDED BY A PACK OF
FRIENDLY DOGS. HE IS A NOTORIOUSLY BAD DRIVER; THE
JOURNALIST CITED ABOVE CLAIMED KITTU TOOK HIM FOR A
HAIR-RAISING RIDE AROUND JAFFNA. GSL REPORTS IN
SEPTEMBER 1986 THAT KITTU HAD BEEN BADLY WOUNDED
BY MORTAR FIRE WERE BASED ON THE FACT THAT, ACCORDING
TO TAMIL SOURCES, KITTU HAD SMASHED UP HIS LEG RATHER
SERIOUSLY IN AN AUTO WRECK. RECENT REPORTS FROM JAFFNA
OF KITTU ZIPPING AROUND ON A SCOOTER INSTEAD OF HIS
CAR HAVE BEEN ATTRIBUTED TO (1) A DEMOTION WITHIN THE
LTTE HIERARCHY, OR (2) EFFECTS OF THE GSL FUEL EMBARGO
IN JAFFNA. IT MAY BE THE CASE, HOWEVER, THAT KITTU
SIMPLY HAS SMASHED UP HIS CAR ONCE AGAIN.


7. KITTU, DESCRIBED BY ONE JOURNALIST AS LOOKING LIKE
"AN ECCENTRIC BUT RICH UNDERGRADUATE," ALSO HAS A
DARKER, TYRANNICAL SIDE. ONE CONTACT SAID HE HAD A
"MACHO SWAGGER" AND CARRIES A .45 IN A LEOPARD-SKIN
HOLSTER (ANOTHER REPORT IDENTIFIES HIS SIDE-ARM AS
A .357 MAGNUM). THE JOURNALIST CITED IN PARA 6
SAID THAT WHILE ON A TOUR OF THE JAFFNA AREA, KITTU
WOULD STOP THE CAR, PULL OUT HIS PISTOL, AND BLAST
AWAY AT CROWS ("HE NEVER HIT ANYTHING," THE JOURNALIST
ADDED). HE ALSO REPORTEDLY WEARS A POTASSIUM CYANIDE
CAPSULE AROUND HIS NECK IN ORDER TO COMMIT SUICIDE IF
CAPTURED, A PRACTICE COMMON WITH LTTE CADRE. ACCORDING
TO A VARIETY OF SOURCES, KITTU IS RUTHLESS WHEN DEALING
WITH TAMILS SUSPECTED OF COOPERATING WITH THE GSL; ONE
INTERVIEWER STATED, "THE HEADMASTER OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED
JAFFNA SCHOOL WAS KILLED ON KITTU'S ORDERS FOR THE CRIME
OF PLAYING FOOTBALL WITH THE ARMY." (WE ASSUME THIS
TO REFER TO EDWIN ANANDRAJAM, THE PRINCIPAL OF ST.
JOHN'S COLLEGE, WHO WAS SHOT AND KILLED JUNE 26, 1985.
HIS BROTHER-IN-LAW TOLD POLCOUNS THAT THE LTTE HAD
EXECUTED HIM FOR HAVING ALLOWED HIS SCHOOL TO PLAY
AGAINST AN ARMY TEAM.) A GSL SOURCE, IN COMMENTING
ON KITTU'S TEMPER AND VIOLENT NATURE, SAID THAT A
RECENT MEETING TOOK PLACE AT KITTU'S HOUSE WITH A
DOZEN OR SO LTTE CADRE. MANY OF THE CADRE HAD PARKED
THEIR BICYCLES OUTSIDE HIS HOUSE, AND WHEN A GSL
HELICOPTER FLEW OVER THE AREA KITTU ORDERED THE MEN
TO MOVE THEIR BICYCLES FOR SECURITY REASONS. WHEN
HIS ORDERS WERE NOT IMMEDIATELY CARRIED OUT, KITTU
GOT AN AX, WENT OUTSIDE, AND DEMOLISHED THE BICYCLES.


8. KITTU'S POLITICAL LEANINGS ARE NOT WELL KNOWN; IT
MAY BE THAT BEYOND MILITANT TAMIL NATIONALISM HIS
IDEOLOGICAL COMMITMENTS ARE THIN. IN AN AUGUST 1986
INTERVIEW WITH JON SWAIN OF THE "SUNDAY TIMES" KITTU
IS QUOTED AS SAYING, "THE TIGERS ARE REVOLUTIONARY
SOCIALISTS WHOSE ULTIMATE AIM IS THE CREATION OF A
ONE-PARTY SOCIALIST STATE."


9. THE COLOMBO PRESS IN PAST MONTHS HAS PLAYED UP THE
ALLEGED FALLING OUT BETWEEN KITTU AND PRABHAKARAN.
NEWSPAPER ARTICLES REPORTED THAT KITTU HAD VANISHED AND
MAY HAVE BEEN KILLED IN LTTE IN-FIGHTING, CHAFFED AT
HAVING PRABHAKARAN RETURN TO JAFFNA AFTER KITTU HAD
BEEN TOP DOG THERE FOR 3 YEARS, AND THAT KITTU WAS TO
MARRY A TAMIL DOCTOR AND WAS NOW MORE INTERESTED IN
MAKING LOVE THAN WAR. MANY OBSERVERS FEEL THAT THE
KITTU-PRABHAKARAN RIFT WAS EITHER INVENTED BY THE GSL,
OR MAGNIFIED IN ORDER TO FOSTER THE PERCEPTION THAT
THE TIGERS WERE GOING TO BE TORN ASUNDER.


10. RAHIM; TRILINGUAL ARISTOCRAT:
KITTU'S PURPORTED NUMBER TWO, INTERPRETER, AND
JAFFNA REGION LTTE SPOKESMAN IS REPORTEDLY 22
YEARS OLD, ALTHOUGH HIS AGE IS OFTEN GIVEN AS 19 BY
FOREIGN MEDIA. HIS REAL NAME IS BALASUBRAMANIAM
CANAGARATNAM. WHEN THE JULY 1983 COMMUNAL RIOTS
BROKE OUT, RAHIM WAS A SECONDARY STUDENT AT TRINITY
COLLEGE IN KANDY. HIS FATHER WAS A SENIOR PLANTER
ON A STATE TEA PLANTATION AND EVIDENTLY BORE THE
BRUNT OF SINHALESE IRE IN THE AREA. RAHIM IMMEDIATELY
QUIT SCHOOL AND MOVED TO JAFFNA WITH HIS FAMILY AND
SHORTLY THEREAFTER JOINED THE LTTE. RAHIM HAS TWO
UNCLES WHO ARE WELL-KNOWN SURGEONS, HIS GRANDFATHER
WAS SRI LANKA'S AUDITOR-GENERAL, AND THE FAMILY IN
GENERAL WAS PART OF THE "ASSIMILATED" TAMIL ESTABLISH-
MENT. RAHIM, A MEMBER OF A HIGH JAFFNA TAMIL CASTE,
SPEAKS ENGLISH, TAMIL, AND SINHALA FLUENTLY. HE
BECAME SOMEWHAT OF AN ISLAND-WIDE PERSONALITY DURING
RECENT VISITS TO JAFFNA OF A SINHALESE POLITICIAN WHO
MADE A VIDEO TAPE OF HIS TRIP WHICH WAS DISTRIBUTED
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. IN THIS VIDEO TAPE RAHIM
APPEARS AS THE HANDSOME, SLENDER, ARTICULATE LTTE
SPOKESMAN, IN CONTRAST TO THE PUDGY, BALDING,
BESPECTACLED, AND MONOLINGUAL KITTU. RAHIM'S COMBAT
EXPERIENCE AND CAPABILITIES ARE LARGELY UNKNOWN.

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BATTICALOA
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11. KUMARAN: SIXTH SENSE:
THE LTTE COMMANDER IN CHARGE OF THE BATTICALOA AND
AMPARAI DISTRICTS GOES BY THE NOM DE GUERRE KUMARAN
(OR AT TIMES IS REFERRED TO AS KUMARAPPAN). WE
DO NOT KNOW HIS REAL NAME. HE IS SAID TO BE A
SUPERB TACTICIAN AND LOGISTICIAN, RUNNING A CLASSIC
GUERRILLA OPERATION FAR FROM HIS SOURCE OF SUPPLIES
AND REINFORCEMENTS. KUMARAN, A HIGH SCHOOL DROPOUT,
WAS RAISED IN BATTICALOA. HIS MOTHER WAS A BATTICALOA
TAMIL, WHILE HIS FATHER WAS FROM JAFFNA, THUS MAKING
HIM ACCEPTABLE TO THE BATTICALOA CADRES AS WELL AS THE
JAFFNA-DOMINATED CENTRAL STRUCTURE. ON A NUMBER OF
OCCASIONS HE HAS BARELY AVOIDED CAPTURE OR DEATH. ONE
SERIOR GSL SECURITY OFFICER TOLD POLOFF OF AN AMBUSH
SET SPECIFICALLY TO KILL KUMARAN. THE AUTHORITIES
LEARNED THAT KUMARAN WAS PERSONALLY TO COME COLLECT
A KIDNAPPING RANSOM FROM A TAMIL FAMILY OUTSIDE OF
BATTICALOA. THE FAMILY COOPERATED WITH THE GSL, WHO
SET UP AN AMBUSH SITE ON THE ROAD TO THE FAMILY'S HOUSE.
KUMARAN AND ANOTHER MAN CAME DOWN THE ROAD ON A MOTOR-
CYCLE TOWARD THE AMBUSH, WHEN FOR NO APPARENT REASON
KUMARAN STOPPED THE MOTORCYCLE, GOT OFF, LOOKED DOWN
THE ROAD, AND THEN TURNED AROUND AND WENT BACK THE
WAY HE HAD COME. THE SECURITY OFFICER SAID, "I DON'T
KNOW HOW HE COULD HAVE POSSIBLY SPOTTED THE AMBUSH--
HE MUST HAVE SOME SIXTH SENSE." HE ALSO NARROWLY ESCAPED
THE STF DURING A LATE JANUARY RAID ON AN LTTE BASE CAMP
IN BATTICALOA. THE TROOPS REPORTEDLY MANAGED TO CAPTURE
HIS COMMAND VEHICLE IN THE RAID--A 4-WHEEL DRIVE CAMOU-
FLAGED PICKUP WITH THE WORD "BEIRUT" STENCILED ACROSS
THE HOOD.


12. DAVID; POLICE BARBER'S SON:
KUMARAN'S SUBORDINATE IN CHARGE OF SOUTHERN BATTICALOA
DISTRICT AND NORTHERN AMPARAI DISTRICT IS DAVID (REAL
NAME NOT KNOWN TO US),THE SON OF A BARBER FROM POTUVIL
IN AMPARAI DISTRICT WHO REGULARLY SERVED AS THE POLICE
BARBER IN THE AREA. THE COMMANDANT OF THE STF TOLD
POLOFF IN AUGUST 1986 THAT DAVID HAD A BAND OF 12 TO 15
MEN WHO OPERATED IN SOME OF THE LEAST ACCESSIBLE JUNGLES
ON THE ISLAND. THE COMMANDANT STATED THAT THE TROOPS
HAVE FREQUENTLY ZEROED IN ON DAVID'S RADIO COMMUNICATIONS
BUT HAVE NEVER MANAGED TO RESPOND QUICKLY ENOUGH TO NAB
THE GUERRILLA BAND. THE REPORTED MASSACRE OF SOME 40
SINHALESE CIVILIANS IN FEBRUARY 1987 OCCURRED IN THE
AREA OF DAVID'S COMMAND, BUT IT IS NOT KNOWN WHETHER HE
LED OR DIRECTED THE KILLINGS.

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MANNAR
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13. RADHA; BUTCHER OF ANURADHAPURA:
THE MANNAR REGIONAL COMMANDER, RADHA (REAL NAME,
ANTHONY KATHTHIAR),IS A HIGH-CASTE HINDU FROM
ARIALAI IN THE JAFFNA PENINSULA. APPROXIMATELY
24 YEARS OLD, HE ASSUMED THE MANNAR COMMAND IN
OCTOBER 1986 FOLLOWING THE DEATH OF VICTOR, THE
POPULAR MANNAR COMMANDER. VICTOR, A CATHOLIC
FROM MANNAR (CATHOLICS CONSTITUTE 42 PERCENT OF
MANNAR DISTRICT'S POPULATION, HINDUS 25 PERCENT
AND THE REMAINDER ARE MUSLIM) HAD A STRONG PERSONAL
FOLLOWING AMONG THE LTTE FIGHTERS IN MANNAR. WHEN
PRABHAKARAN CHOSE A JAFFNA HINDU TO REPLACE HIM,
A NUMBER OF LTTE MEMBERS TRIED TO RESIGN. PRABHAKARAN
ALLEGEDLY DISPATCHED KITTU TO REMIND THE DISAFFECTED
MANNAR "BOYS" THAT NOBODY RESIGNS FROM THE LTTE.
ACCORDING TO A MILITARY SOURCE, THE LTTE HAS UNDER-
TAKEN NO OFFENSIVE OPERATIONS EXCEPT FOR THREE LAND-
MINE EXPLOSIONS IN MANNAR DISTRICT SINCE RADHA REPLACED
VICTOR IN OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR. THE OFFICER ADDED
THAT IT WAS RADHA, THEN WORKING UNDER VICTOR'S COMMAND,
WHO ORGANIZED AND EXECUTED THE ATTACK IN MAY 1985 ON
THE HOLY BUDDHIST TOWN OF ANURADHAPURA IN WHICH OVER
150 CIVILIANS WERE KILLED. RADHA REPORTEDLY SPENDS
A GOOD DEAL OF TIME IN VALVEDDITTURAI ON THE JAFFNA
PENINSULA. BEFORE ASSUMING THE MANNAR COMMAND
HE WAS IN SOUTH INDIA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD, IN
CHARGE OF TRAINING THE "FOURTH BATCH" OF LTTE RECRUITS.


14. SHAHJAHAN; MANNAR DANDY:
RAHDA'S DEPUTY IS SHAHJAHAN, A LOCAL FROM MANNAR DISTRICT
WHO HAS TAKEN VICTOR'S PLACE AS THE POPULAR FAVORITE
AMONG LTTE SUPPORTERS IN MANNAR. HE IS REFERRED TO AS
"THE INDIAN MOVIE STAR" BOTH BECAUSE OF HIS NOM DE
GUERRE AND DASHING GOOD LOOKS.


15. SALIM; CORRUPT COMMISSAR:
SALIM, ANOTHER LEADER IN THE MANNAR LTTE STRUCTURE, HAS
BEEN TASKED WITH ADMINISTRATIVE FUNCTIONS SUCH AS "TAX
COLLECTION," MAGISTERIAL DUTIES, PROPAGANDA EFFORTS, ETC.
ACCORDING TO ONE SOURCE, RADHA HAS COMPLAINED TO PRABHAK-
ARAN THAT SALIM IS EMBEZZLING FUNDS AND IS GENERATING
POPULAR RESENTMENT IN THE AREA AGAINST THE LTTE. IF
TRUE, SALIM'S TENURE IS LIKELY TO BE SHORT-LIVED, ACCORD-
ING TO THIS REPORT.

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CONCLUSIONS
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16. THE PRIMACY OF VELUPILLAI PRABHAKARAN IN NEARLY
EVERY ASPECT OF THE LTTE'S ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES--
BE IT APPOINTING REGIONAL COMMANDERS, DIVYING UP
RANSOM MONEY, DECIDING ON THE QUANTITIES OF MUNITIONS
AND SUPPPLIES FOR THE VARIOUS REGIONS, ETC.--BECAME
QUICKLY APPARENT AS WE LOOKED AT THE LTTE'S FUNCTIONING
STRUCTURE IN SRI LANKA. IF PRABHAKARAN WERE TO LEAVE
THE SCENE FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER, WHAT WOULD HAPPEN
TO THE LTTE? KITTU IS BEST PLACED TO TAKE OVER THE
ORGANIZATION, BEING THE COMMANDER OF THE MOST IMPORTANT
REGION AND GENERALLY RECOGNIZED AS PRABHAKARAN'S
DEPUTY. HOWEVER, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR IF KITTU
HAS THE PERSONAL AND/OR ORGANIZATIONAL AUTHORITY TO
DICTATE TO THE ORGANIZATION AS PRABHAKARAN THUS FAR HAS
BEEN ABLE TO. THE IRON DISCIPLINE AND EFFECTIVE
COORDINATION OF THE LTTE, ONE KEY TO THE TIGERS'
SUCCESSES SO FAR, WOULD PROBABLY BE WEAKENED IN A POST-
PRABHAKARAN POWER STRUGGLE.


17. IF THE CURRENT POLITICO-MILITARY "MANAGEMENT STYLE"
OF THE LTTE COMMAND STRUCTURE IS ANY INDICATION (AND
WE BELIEVE IT IS),THEN IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT OF THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF AN LTTE-CONTROLLED TAMIL EELAM WE WOULD
MOST LIKELY SEE AN AUTHORITARIAN, HEAVILY CENTRALIZED
ADMINISTRATION. THE REGIME IS APT TO BE A MILITARY
DICTATORSHIP IN THE GUISE OF A (REHETORICALLY) SOCIALIST
ONE-PARTY SYSTEM, BEING NEITHER PARTICULARLY BENEVOLENT
NOR IDEOLOGICAL. A MORE LIEKLY PROSPECT IS THAT
PRABHAKARAN COULD BECOME THE NORTHERN PROVINCE CHIEF
MINISTER UNDER SOME DEVOLUTION SCHEME. UNDER THIS
SETUP HIS AUTHORITARIAN TENDENCIES WOULD PROBABLY BE
ATTENUATED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE DEMOCRATIC SYSTEM
OUTLINED IN THE GSL'S PROVINCIAL COUNCIL PROPOSALS.


18. CLEAVAGES ALREADY VISIBLE WITHIN THE LTTE WOULD BE
EXACERBATED IN THE EVENT OF THE ESTABLISHMENT OF TAMIL
EELAM UNDER LTTE CONTROL. DOMINATION BY LOW- AND MIDDLE-
CAST HINDUS FROM JAFFNA, CURRENTLY THE CORE OF LTTE POWER
WOULD RANKLE MANY TAMILS, ONCE "DOMINATION" BY THE
SINHALESE BUDDHISTS WERE THROWN OFF. RIFTS WOULD LIKELY
APPEAR BETWEEN JAFFNA--NON-JAFFNA TAMILS, HINDUS--
CHRISTIANS, BETWEEN CASTE GROUPINGS, EASTERNERS-
NORTHERNERS, ETC. THE NONDEMOCRATIC INCLINATION OF
PRABHAKARAN WOULD LEAVE LITTLE OR NO OUTLET FOR
DISSENT BASED ON THESE CLEAVAGES. IN SHORT, AN
LTTE-CONTROLLED TAMIL EELAM WOULD LIKELY BE AN
UNHAPPY PLACE FOR MANY TAMILS, EVEN MANY OF THOSE
SUPPORTIVE OF THE SEPARATIST MOVEMENT TODAY.


SPAIN