DEVELOPMENTS IN UGANDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 029781 FOLLOWING STATE 029781 DTD JAN 30, 1986 SENT ACTION ALL AFRICAN DIPLOMATIC POSTS, INFO LONDON, PARIS, BRUSSELS, BONN, TOKYO, SEOUL, CAIRO, SECDEF, DIA, CENTCOM MACDILL AFB, USEUCOM VAIHINGEN, JSOC FT BRAGG, BEING REPEATED FOR YOUR INFO: QUOTE: C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 029781 E.O. 12356: DECL:OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL UG SUBJECT: DEVELOPMENTS IN UGANDA ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. FOLLOWING FOR POST'S INFORMATION IS TEXT OF INFORMATION MEMO DATED 1/28/86 ON DEVELOPMENTS IN UGANDA. ¶3. BEGIN TEXT. SUMMARY: SOUTHERN GUERRILLAS HAVE WON THE CAPITAL AND HEARTLAND OF UGANDA AND HAVE THE MILITARY EDGE ON DISSIDENT NORTHERN TRIBES. THE NEW HEAD OF STATE IS A FERVENT NATIONALIST WHO LIKELY WILL COMBINE THIRD-WORLD RHETORIC WITH PRAGMATIC POLICIES. END SUMMARY. THE 5,000-MAN NATIONAL RESISTANCE ARMY (NRA) NOW CONTROLS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF UGANDA AND GAINS GROUND DAILY FROM FORMER GOVERNMENT TROOPS IN DISORDERLY RETREAT. LONGER TERM, NRA FORCES LIKELY WILL FACE LOW-GRADE BUSH WARFARE FROM DISSIDENT NORTHERN TRIBES. NRA'S SUPERIOR DISCIPLINE AND ORGANIZATION, AND ITS CONTROL OVER THE CAPITAL AND ECONOMIC HEART OF UGANDA, SHOULD GIVE IT A DECISIVE EDGE. NRA ESCHEWS THE HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES OF FORMER MILITARY LEADERS AND HAS BEEN MORE SUCCESSFUL THAN THEY IN WINNING THE POPULATION'S AFFECTIONS. ALL 170 AMERICANS IN UGANDA ARE REPORTED SAFE AND KAMPALA IS RETURNING TO NORMAL WITH RESTORATION OF POWER, WATER AND TELEPHONE, AND REOPENING OF MARKETS. IN CONTRAST TO THE BEHAVIOR OF GOVERNMENT TROOPS AFTER THE JULY 85 COUP, NRA SOLDIERS ARE REPORTED TO BE WELLDISCIPLINED AND POPULAR WITH TOWNSPEOPLE. AMBASSADOR HOUDEK HAS MET WITH NRA COMMANDER YOWERI MUSEVENI AND FEELS WE CAN WORK WITH THE NEW REGIME. MUSEVENI MAY BE A STRIDENT INTERLOCUTOR, BUT HIS GOVERNMENT SHOULD NOT BE INIMICAL TO U.S. INTERESTS. MUSEVENI'S IDEOLOGICAL ORIENTATION IS MURKY, COMBINING FERVENT NATIONALISM, THIRD WORLD RHETORIC AND PRAGMATIC OPPORTUNISM. HE DECLARED TO THE DIPLOMATIC COMMUNITY THAT HIS FOREIGN POLICY WOULD BE NON-ALIGNED AND THAT HE WOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH SOUTH AFRICA AND ISRAEL. LIKE MANY UGANDAN FACTIONS, HE HAS SOUGHT LIBYAN ASSISTANCE, BUT WAS MOTIVATED PROBABLY MORE BY OPPORTUNISM THAN IDEOLOGICAL AFFILIATION. NRA REPRESENTATIVES HAVE STRESSED TO US THEIR DESIRE FOR GOOD RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. IN HIS WRITINGS, MUSEVENI HAS FAVORED ACTIVE STATE GUIDANCE OVER THE ECONOMY. BUT HE HAS ALSO RECOGNIZED THAT FREE ENTERPRISE BASED ON SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IS THE KEY TO UGANDA'S ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT. MUSEVENI SAID HIS GOVERNMENT WILL WELCOME FOREIGN ASSISTANCE IN DEVELOPING PRODUCTIVE ENTERPRISES. OUR AMBASSADOR IS ANXIOUS TO RESUME THE AID PROGRAM AND ENGAGE MUSEVENI IN DIALOGUE ON UGANDA'S ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL EVOLUTION. END TEXT. ¶4. KAMPALA MINIMIZE CONSIDERED. UNQUOTE SHULTZ