THE UGANDA SITUATION: LONDON VIEWS

S E C R E T LONDON 01567 E.O.12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: UG PGOV PREL SUBJECT: THE UGANDA SITUATION: LONDON VIEWS REF: STATE 19968 ¶1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. OUR FCO COLLEAGUES ARE WATCHING THE UGANDA SITUATION WITH GROWING CONCERN, AND THEIR ANALYSIS OF MUSEVENI'S NEGATIVE ROLE VERY MUCH COINCIDES WITH OUR OWN IN REFTEL. THE FCO WAS THOROUGHLY RATTLED BY THE FIGHTING IN KAMPALA ON WEDNESDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, THE BRITISH WERE SLIGHTLY CHEERED WHEN THE KENYANS INFORMED THEM THAT MOI WILL BE MEETING WITH THE NRA IN NAIROBI ON FRIDAY TO DISCUSS THE SITUATION. ¶3. ON THE BRITISH MILITARY ROLE, WE WERE TOLD THAT THE OPERATION IS TOTALLY ON HOLD PENDING FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS. THE BRITISH MAJOR GENERAL WHO WOULD HEAD THE MILITARY GROUP REMAINS IN NAIROBI. ¶4. LONRHO CHIEF EXECUTIVE TINY ROWLAND TODAY TOLD US THAT MUSEVENI'S GAME PLAN ON UGANDA REMAINS UNCHANGED. ACCORDING TO ROWLAND, MUSEVENI WANTS TO EDGE HIS WAY TOWARD POLITICAL DOMINANCE IN THE COUNTRY; HE IS UTTERLY CONTEMPTUOUS OF OKELLO, ETC; HE VIEWS THE NAIROBI ACCORD SIMPLY AS A REVISED FORMAT FOR CONTINUED POLITICAL CONFLICT. ¶5. ASKED WHETHER MUSEVENI PLANS TO TAKE KAMPALA, ROWLAND REPLIED THAT MUSEVENI HAS CONSISTENTLY TOLD HIM HE CAN TAKE KAMPALA BUT CANNOT HOLD IT. THEREFORE, HE WILL NOT ACTUALLY MOVE INTO THE CITY. THE FCO AGREES, BELIEVING THAT MUSEVENI WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE TACTIC OF PUTTING PRESSURE ON THE CITY AND THEN RELENTING. ¶6. PRESS REPORTS HERE CONTINUE TO ALLEGE THAT AN INCURSION BY ZAIRE FORCES INTO SOUTHWESTERN UGANDA HAS OCCURRED IN COOPERATION WITH FORMER AMIN TROOPS. OUR FCO CONTACTS SAY THEY ARE UNABLE TO CONFIRM THAT STORY. HOWEVER, "SOUTH" MAGAZINE CORRESPONDENT WILLIAM PIKE TELLS US THE REPORTS - ACCORDING TO HIS NRA FRIENDS - ARE CORRECT, AND THE OPERATION IS DESIGNED TO FORESTALL NRA MOVES AGAINST KAMPALA. (IF SO, IT WOULD APPARENTLY INDICATE AN ABOUT-FACE BY MOBUTU ON THE UGANDAN SITUATION.) ¶7. WE PLAN TO PURSUE THESE ISSUES IN OUR FRIDAY MEETING WITH BEN MOTOGO. PRICE