CONTINUED WAR FOR THE PALESTINIAN CAMPS --

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DAMASCUS 07104

PARIS FOR WINN

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PREL MOPS LE SY
SUBJECT: CONTINUED WAR FOR THE PALESTINIAN CAMPS --
ANOTHER SYRIAN FAILURE?

REF: A) BEIRUT 6526, B) DAMASCUS 7043


1. SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT.


2. SUMMARY: AS REFTELS POINT OUT, SYRIA APPEARS TO BE
FACING A SUBSTANTIAL DEFEAT IF IT IS NOT ABLE TO QUICKLY
AND RESOLUTELY RESOLVE THE LATEST ROUND IN THE "WAR OF
THE CAMPS" IN LEBANON. WE BELIEVE, HOWEVER, THAT THIS
LATEST ROUND OF FIGHTING ALREADY REPRESENTS A SUBSTANTIAL
FAILURE OF SYRIAN POLICY WHICH THREATENS TO ERODE
DAMASCUS' STRATEGY TOWARDS THE PALESTINIANS AND ITS
EFFORTS TO SABOTAGE THE PALESTINIAN RECONCILIATION
PROCESS NOW GOING ON. FURTHER IT DAMAGES SYRIA'S IMAGE
WITHIN THE ARAB AND INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AND
INCREASINGLY CONTRIBUTES TO DISSENT WITHIN THE POLICY-
MAKING PROCESS IN DAMASCUS ITSELF. END SUMMARY.


3. WE CONCUR WITH EMBASSY BEIRUT (REFTEL) THAT THE
CONTINUED FIGHTING BETWEEN AMAL AND THE PALESTINIANS, IN
WHICH AMAL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN SADLY DEFICIENT,
REPRESENTS A MAJOR DILEMMA FOR SYRIAN POLICY-MAKERS.
INDEED, WE WOULD GO FURTHER AND SAY THAT THE FAILURE TO
RESOLVE THE FIGHTING AT THIS POINT ON TERMS ACCEPTABLE
TO AMAL AND THE SYRIANS ALREADY REPRESENTS A SEVERE
SYRIAN DEFEAT AND THREATENS TO FURTHER UNRAVEL DAMASCUS'
ALREADY DISINTEGRATING PALESTINIAN POLICY.

--

4. A JORDANIAN JOURNALIST WITH EXCELLENT PALESTINIAN
CONTACTS HAS TOLD US THAT IN THE CURRENT NEGOTIATIONS
FOR A CEASEFIRE, THE PFLP -- THE ONLY MEMBER OF THE
SYRIAN-BACKED PNSF WITH SUBSTANTIAL POPULAR SUPPORT AMONG
THE PALESTINIANS -- HAS TAKEN A DECIDEDLY ANTI-SYRIAN
LINE AND HAS SPLIT WITH THE MORE TRACTABLE PRO-SYRIAN
ORGANIZATIONS, INCLUDING THE ABU MUSA FATAH GROUP, THE
PFLP-GC, AND SAIQA. ACCORDING TO THIS SOURCE, THE PFLP
IS NEGOTIATING ON BEHALF OF ITSELF, THE DFLP, FATAH AND
THE ABU NIDAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE CAMPS.
SPECIFICALLY, THE PFLP NEGOTIATORS REFUSE TO TURN OVER
TERRITORIES GAINED IN THE SIDON AREA TO ANYONE BUT
MUSTAFA SA'ID'S POPULAR NASSARISTS MOVEMENT. THE SCENARIO
WE HAVE RECEIVED OF NEGOTIATIONS POSITS GREAT BITTERNESS
BETWEEN THE PALESTINIANS AS A WHOLE ON THE ONE HAND AND
NABIH BERRI AND THE SYRIAN GOVERNMENT ON THE OTHER, AS
WELL AS A GREAT DEAL OF BACK-BITING WITHIN BOTH THE
PALESTINIAN AND LEBANESE GROUPINGS.


5. THE MILITARY FAILURE ON THE GROUND IN LEBANON IS NOT
DAMASCUS' ONLY DILEMMA. AS IN PREVIOUS SYRIAN EFFORTS TO
SUBJUGATE THE PALESTINIANS IN THE LEBANESE REFUGEE CAMPS
THROUGH THE USE OF DAMASCUS' AMAL SURROGATE, THE LATEST
FIGHTING HAS CREATED GREAT BITTERNESS AMONG OTHER ARAB
GOVERNMENTS. DAMASCUS IS PRESENTLY OR HAS RECENTLY BEEN
HOST TO A VARIETY OF SENIOR ARAB AND ISLAMIC ENVOYS --
ALGERIAN FOREIGN MINISTER IBRAHIMI, LIBYA'S MAJOR JALLUD,
SAUDI INTERIOR MINISTER PRINCE NAIF, AND A NUMBER OF
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIALS. WHILE JALLUD AND THE IRANIANS
HAVE BECOME PERSONALLY INVOLVED IN THE PALESTINIAN/LEBAN-
ESE NEGOTIATIONS, WE UNDERSTAND THAT BOTH THE ALGERIAN
AND THE SAUDI DELIVERED TOUGH MESSAGES TO ASAD REGARDING
THIS LATEST ASSAULT ON THE PALESTINIANS. THE SYRIANS MAY
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TAKE SOME SMALL COMFORT IN THE ANNOUNCE-
MENT BY THE "PAN-ARAB COMMAND" CALLING FOR SOLIDARITY WITH
SYRIA AGAINST THE AMERICAN, BRITISH AND ISRAELI
CONSPIRACY AGAINST IT, SUPPORT FOR AMAL, AND A REDEFINI-
TION OF THE PALESTINIAN ROLE IN LEBANON. THIS
ORGANIZATION IS, HOWEVER, ONE OF LITTLE STANDING AMONG
THE ARAB STATES AS A WHOLE, TO SAY THE LEAST, AND IS
LARGELY A SYRIAN-LIBYAN CREATURE. INDEED, EVEN THIS MINOR
"VICTORY" AND JALLUD'S VERY CAREFUL STATEMENT OF
MEASURED SUPPORT HAVE BEEN CONTRADICTED BY LIBYAN LEADER
MO'AMMAR QADHAFI'S LATEST BLAST CONDEMNING AMAL.

--

6. AS WE UNDERSTAND IT, NOT ALL THE LEBANESE GATHERED
HERE ARE IN FULL SUPPORT OF SYRIA EITHER. WHILE NONE
WANT TO SEE THE RECREATION OF THE PALESTINIAN "STATE-
WITHIN-A-STATE" IN LEBANON, FEW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
SYRIA THAT THIS TYPE OF MILITARY ACTION AGAINST THE CAMPS
IS IN THE INTERESTS OF THE LEBANESE. AS THEY SEE IT,
LEBANESE MILITIAS ARE BEING ASKED TO DO SYRIA'S WORK FOR
IT AND TO SHOULDER THE BLAME WITHIN THE ARAB COMMUNITY.
DRUSE LEADER WALID JUMBLATT, ACCORDING TO REPORTS, FEELS
PARTICULARLY SQUEEZED. AMAL'S SH'IA RIVALS, HIZBALLAH,
ARE NOT PARTICIPATING IN NEGOTIATIONS, AND, AS IN THE
PAST, HAVE REFRAINED FROM GETTING INVOLVED IN THE
FIGHTING. AT THE SAME TIME, HIZBALLAH'S IRANIAN MENTORS
ARE PARTICULARLY ACTIVE HERE. OF INTEREST, PALESTINIANS
TOLD OUR JORDANIAN SOURCE THAT SHAYKHOLESLAM EXPRESSED
DEEP SYMPATHY FOR THE PALESTINIAN POSITION WHEN MEETING
WITH PNSF LEADERS ON NOVEMBER 24. ON THE EVENING OF
NOVEMBER 27, HOWEVER, SHAYKHOLESLAM RETURNED TO THE
PALESTINIAN LEADERSHIP COLDLY BEARING BERRI'S PROPOSALS.
WE DO NOT, NEVERTHELESS, BELIEVE THAT IRAN'S BASIC
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SYRIAN STRATEGY TOWARDS LEBANON
HAS CHANGED IN ANY WAY. THEY WANT TO TAKE ASAD'S
"LEBANESE CARD" AWAY FROM HIM.


7. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT THE PNSF LEADERS BLINDLY LOYAL
TO DAMASCUS DO NOT HAVE ANY REAL ABILITY TO DELIVER THE
PALESTINIAN FIGHTERS IN THE TYRE, SIDON, OR BEIRUT
CAMPS. WHAT IS NOW AT STAKE FOR DAMASCUS IS NOT MERELY
AN EMBARRASSMENT THROUGH A MILITARY DEFEAT FOR ITS
LEBANESE SURROGATES. RATHER, SYRIA IS FACED WITH BITTER
DIVISIONS WITHIN ITS OWN UMBRELLA PALESTINIAN ORGANIZA-
TION THAT COULD FINALLY TEAR IT APART, LEAVING A RUMP OF
"YES-MEN" WITH NO BROAD PALESTINIAN POPULAR SUPPORT.
SYRIA COULD LOSE ITS "PALESTINIAN CARD."

--

8. THIS PARALLELS THE CURRENT STAGES OF THE PALESTINIAN
RECONCILIATION EFFORT, WITH PFLP LEADER GEORGE HABASH
NOW IN THE THIRD ROUND OF NEGOTIATIONS WITH FATAH
NUMBER TWO MAN KHALIL AL-WAZIR IN ALGIERS. ALTHOUGH
HABASH CONTINUES TO HOLD OUT FOR HIS DEMANDS THAT
INCLUDE PRIOR ABROGATION OF THE AMMAN ACCORDS,
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE ADEN-ALGIERS AGREEMENTS, AND PLO
BREAKING OFF ITS CONTACTS WITH EGYPT, THE FACT THAT THE
NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE IS DEEPLY DISTURBING TO DAMASCUS.
KHALID FAHOUM HAS TOLD WESTERN DIPLOMATS THAT THE SYRIANS
HAVE INFORMED THE DAMASCUS-BASED PALESTINIANS THAT ANY
OF THEM ATTENDING AN ALGERIAN PNC WILL NOT BE PERMITTED
TO RETURN TO SYRIA.


9. COMMENT: THE CAMPS WAR REPRESENTS A MULTIFACETED,
COMPLEX DILEMMA FOR DAMASCUS. ITS IMPACT IS NOT MERELY
ONE OF SYRIAN PRESTIGE AND SUPPORT OF ITS AMAL ALLY.
IT HAS SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS FOR ASAD'S PALESTINIAN
POLICY, HIS IMAGE WITHIN THE ARAB WORLD, AND HIS PERSONAL
RELATIONS WITH ARAB AND OTHER INTERNATIONAL - INCLUDING
SOVIET - LEADERS. CLOSER TO HOME, WE BELIEVE THAT THERE
IS INTENSE INTERNAL DEBATE AMONG ASAD'S LIEUTENANTS
AS TO HOW TO DEAL WITH BOTH THE CAMPS WAR AND LEBANON
AS A WHOLE. THUS FAR, ASAD DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GRIP
ON THE SITUATION. THE LONGER THIS REMAINS THE CASE, THE
MORE ROOM HIS LIEUTENANTS WILL HAVE TO MANEUVER AND TO
INTRIGUE AGAINST ONE ANOTHER. SEVERAL KEY SYRIAN
OFFICIALS, AMONG THEM VICE PRESIDENT KHADDAM AND MILITARY
INTELLIGENCE CHIEF ALI DUBA, HAVE GREAT PERSONAL
INVOLVEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF SYRIA'S LEBANESE AND
PALESTINIAN POLICIES. FAILURE IS NOT USUALLY PERMITTED
BY DAMASCUS UNDER ASAD. HOWEVER, AS WE LOOK AROUND HERE,
FAILURE SEEMS TO BE BECOMING AN INCREASING PHENOMENA
WITHIN SYRIAN INTERNATIONAL AND DOMESTIC POLICY.


10. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.

RANSOM