"NO NASSERISM, ONLY NASSERISTS"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 26111



E.O.: 12356: DECL:OADR

TAGS: PREL, PGOV, PINS, EG, US

SUBJ: "NO NASSERISM, ONLY NASSERISTS"



REF: CAIRO 22742



1. C - ENTIRE TEXT.



2. SUMMARY. "NASSERISM" HAS GAINED PUBLICITY AND

TOPICALITY IN RECENT MONTHS (REFTEL),BUT NEITHER A

COHERENT IDEOLOGY NOR A BROAD BASED POLITICAL MOVEMENT HAS

EMERGED TO GIVE DEFINITION TO THE TERM. THE MOST CREDIBLE

ATTEMPT TO FORM A MOVEMENT IS THE SQUARELY ANTI-U.S.,

ANTI-ISRAEL "ARAB SOCIALIST NASSERIST PARTY" (ASNP),NOW

IN THE LEGAL LIMBO OF "PARTY UNDER ESTABLISHMENT." A NEW

WEEKLY NASSERIST NEWSPAPER CLAIMS INDEPENDENCE FROM THE

ASNP, BUT CLEARLY HAS LINKS TO IT OF DUBIOUS LEGALITY.

MUBARAK HAS TOLERATED BUT CAREFULLY CIRCUMSCRIBED THE

RE-EMERGENCE OF NASSERIST VISIBILITY. THE NASSERISTS

CLEARLY POSE NO IMMEDIATE THREAT TO THE REGIME, AND ARE

LOCKED IN HOSTILE COMPETITION WITH ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS IN

THE ATTEMPT TO BEND POPULAR ECONOMIC DISSATISFACTION INTO

POLITICAL SUPPORT. THE NASSERISTS' PRIMARY SIGNIFICANCE

IS THEIR THEORETICAL POTENTIAL TO INCITE OPPOSITION TO

ECONOMIC REFORM, ADDING TO MUBARAK'S CAUTION IN ECONOMIC

DECISIONS. END SUMMARY.



3. NASSER'S GHOST: REFTEL REPORTED DIVERSE ELEMENTS OF

AN APPARENT RE-EMERGENCE OF "NASSERIST " POLITICAL

ACTIVITY, NOTABLY: MOHAMMED HASSANEIN HEIKAL'S

RE-APPEARANCE IN PRINT; ESTABLISHMENT OF A PLAINLY

NASSERIST WEEKLY NEWSPAPER; PROMINENT OFFICIAL

COMMEMORATION ON 30TH ANNIVERSARY OF NASSER'S

NATIONALIZATION OF THE SUEZ CANAL AND HIS SUBSEQUENT

EMERGENCE AS A NATIONAL HERO IN THE 1956 WAR; AND

ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES OF A PROSPECTIVE NEW NASSERIST

POLITICAL PARTY. THERE IS LINGERING, PERHAPS EVEN

MARGINALLY REVIVED POPULAR NOSTALGIA FOR ELEMENTS OF

NASSER'S LEGACY. NEVERTHELESS, THIS SELECTIVE NOSTALGIA

IS VOICED MAINLY AMONG INTELLECTUALS AND THE LOWER MIDDLE

CLASS PUBLIC SECTOR AND GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES, WHO

PROSPERED UNDER NASSER. EVEN THE DEMAGOGIC LEFTIST

OPPOSITION HAS AVOIDED PROMINENT PLAY OF NASSERISM AND THE

BRUITED NASSERIST REVIVAL.



4. MUBARAK AND REVISIONIST NASSERISM: IN HIS SPEECHES IN

SEPTEMBER AROUND THE ANNIVERSARY OF NASSER'S DEATH,

MUBARAK LAID CLAIM AS THE TRUE HEIR OF NASSERIST

NATIONALISM AND INDEPENDENCE FROM SUPERPOWER DOMINATION,

BUT DISTINGUISHED HIS OWN APPROACH FROM NASSER'S IN KEY

AREAS (PEACE WITH ISRAEL, DEMOCRACY, ECONOMIC REFORM).

BESIDES REVISING THE VALUES OF NASSERISM, THE MUBARAK

GOVERMENT IS TOYING WITH THE NEW "NASSERISTS." IT

EFFECTIVELY HAS LURED THEM ABOVE GROUND BY PERMITTING

PRE-ORGANIZATIONAL POLITICAL ACTIVITIES AND PRESS

INTERVIEWS, WHILE ARRESTING SOME ACTIVISTS AND WARNINQ AT

LEAST ONE WOULD-BE LEADER OF THE LIMITS ON HIS

ACTIVITIES. THE NASSERISTS ARE THEMSELVES (UNADMITTED)

REVISIONISTS, CLAIMING TO PROMINENT PROSPECTIVE RECRUITS

THAT THEY HAVE DISCARDED NASSER'S AUTHORITARIANISM.

EVIDENTLY THEY RECOGNIZE THAT THE MEMORY OF NASSER'S

OPPRESSION ALSO REMAINS VIVID FOR SOME.



5. NASSERISTS VS NASSERISM. NASSER CONFIDANT AND

CHRONICLER MOHAMMED HASSANEIN HEIKAL APTLY HAS

CHARGED IN PUBLISHED INTERVIEWS AND PRIVATE CON-

VERSATIONS THAT THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS "NASSERISM,

BUT ONLY NASSERISTS" TAKING PERSONAL INITIATIVES.

ABSENT THE GREAT HERO HIMSELF OR A BODY OF SEMINAL

PUBLICATIONS TO GUIDE HIS HEIRS, NO COHERENT POLITICAL

PHILOSOPHY EXISTS TO UNIFY THEM. COMPETING

NASSERISTS ARE ALLEGEDLY ACTIVE IN EACH OF THE

ESTABLISHED POLITICAL PARTIES; THE REMNANTS OF THE

DORMANT "EGYPT PARTY"; A PROSPECTIVE NEW NASSERIST

PARTY; A NEW WEEKLY NEWSPAPER; AND EVEN AMONG

ISLAMIC ACTIVISTS. THE TERM "NASSERIST" IS

USED LOOSELY AND DISPARAGINGLY: THE FREE-MARKET

WAFDISTS, LIBERALS, AND MEMBERS OF THE CONSERVATIVE

SIDE OF THE NDP REGULARLY ACCUSE MUBARAK OF TOLER-

ATING NASSERISTS (IF NOT OUTRIGHT MARXISTS) AMONG

HIS SENIOR ADVISORS, USING AS EXAMPLES (WITHOUT

EXPLANATION) OSAMA AL BAZ AND SPEAKER OF

PARLIAMENT RIFA'AT MAHGOUB. THE RIGHT SUSPECTS

NEW PM ATIF SIDQI FOR HIS PAST ASSOCIATION WITH

NASSER THROUGH MAHGOUB. ONE WELL-CONNECTED, INDE-

PENDENT POLITICAL SCIENTIST CLAIMED THAT THE NASSER-

ISTS ARE DELIBERATELY PURSUING THEIR OBJECTIVES IN

MULTIFARIOUS CHANNELS, NOT QUITE AT ODDS WITH EACH

OTHER BUT NOT QUITE COOPERATING EITHER, AS A

MEANS TO EVADE GOVERNMENT PRESSURE.



6. FARID ABDEL KARIM AND THE ASNP: THE MOST PRO-

MINENT OF THE NASSER REVIVALISTS -- AND PERHAPS

LEAST LIKELY TO FAIL -- IS CONTROVERSIAL LAWYER

FARID ABDEL KARIM, THE "DEPUTY" OF THE NEW "ARAB

SOCIALIST NASSERIST PARTY" (ASNP). THE ASNP IS NOW

IN THE LEGAL LIMBO DEFINED AS "UNDER ESTABLISHMENT."

THAT GIVES THE ASNP THE DISADVANTAGES OF BEING OUT

IN THE OPEN, AND HENCE EASY MONITORING BY THE GOVERN-

MENT -- WITHOUT THE ADVANTAGES THAT GO WITH BEING

COMPLETELY LEGAL: HAVING A REGULAR PUBLIC VOICE (SEE

PARA 8),OR UNRESTRICTED ORGANIZATIONAL ACTIVITIES.

ABDEL KARIM TOLD POLOFF THAT THERE ARE ONLY TWO IMPORTANT

POLITICAL FORCES IN EGYPT TODAY: NASSERISM AND ISLAM,

NEITHER OF WHICH ARE REPRESENTED BY POLITICAL PARTIES.

ABDEL KARIM CLAIMS THE NASSERISTS BELIEVE IN TRUE

DEMOCRACY, AND THAT THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD PERMIT

ALL THOSE DESIRING POLITICAL PARTIES TO FORM THEM.

IN THIS CASE, THE ISLAMIC ELEMENTS WOULD QUICKLY

LOSE THEIR POPULARITY IN THEIR FRACTIOUSNESS. ON

THE OTHER HAND, THE OVERWHELMING POPULAR SUPPORT

FOR NASSERISM -- ABDEL KARIM CLAIMS 100,000 FOUNDING

MEMBERS -- WOULD ASSURE THE PRIMACY OF HIS PARTY.

ABDEL KARIM SAID THE ASNP AIMS NOT TO TAKE POWER,

BUT TO UNITE THE NASSERISTS ONLY TO LEAD THE LEGI-

TIMATE OPPOSITION THROUGH PEACEFUL MEANS. HE PRO-

FESSED SATISFACTION AT THE RECENT GOVERNMENT PRESSURE

ON HIMSELF AND OTHER NASSERISTS, CLAIMING THAT THIS

IS A POWERFUL UNIFYING FACTOR. HE EXPLAINED THAT HE

USES THE TITLE "DEPUTY" ("WAKEEL") -- ALTHOUGH HE

IS THE FOUNDER AND LEADER OF THE NEW PARTY, BECAUSE

NO FORMAL ELECTION OF A PRESIDENT CAN BE HELD UNTIL

THE PARTY EMERGES FROM "UNDER ESTABLISHMENT."



7. FOREIGN POLICY: AS IN HIS PUBLISHED INTERVIEWS, ABDEL

KARIM MADE CLEAR THAT TWO KEY ELEMENTS OF ASNP POLICY ARE

OPPOSITION TO U.S. "INFLUENCE" IN EGYPT AND TO PEACEFUL

EGYPTIAN-ISRAELI TIES. HE CHARGED US PRESSURE IS THE

PRIMARY REASON THAT THE GOVERNMENT STILL HAS NOT PERMITTED

FULL ESTABLISHMENT OF THE ASNP AND HAS SUSPENDED ITS

PUBLICATION, "AL ISHTIRAKI", AFTER ONLY TWO ISSUES

(PHOTOCOPIES POUCHED INR). NONETHELESS, HE WELCOMED THE

OPPORTUNITY FOR A DIALOGUE, AND CLAIMED MANY PERSONAL

FRIENDSHIPS WITH AMERICANS. HE ALSO IMPLIED THAT HE

OPPOSES U.S. INFLUENCE IN EGYPT PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF HIS

MANIFEST HATRED FOR ISRAEL, RATHER THAN FOR ANY PURELY

NATIONALIST OR IDEOLOGICAL MOTIVATION. ABDEL KARIM DENIED

LINKS BETWEEN THE NASSERISTS AND QADDAFI, CHARGING THAT

QADDHAFI IS NASSERISM'S WORST ENEMY. HE SAID QADDHAFI

SEEKS ALLIANCE WITH NASSERISM TO DOMINATE IT, BUT THE

NASSERISTS REFUSE HIS BLANDISHMENTS.



8. "SAWT AL ARAB": AN EXAMPLE OF THE CONFUSED AND

COMPETING RELATIONSHIPS AMONG LEADING NASSERIST LIGHTS IS

THE CASE OF THE RECENTLY ESTABLISHED "SAWT AL ARAB"

NEWSPAPER AND ITS FOUNDER-EDITOR, ABDEL AZIM MANAF, WHO

HAS AVOIDED EMBASSY CONTACT. HEIKAL (FOR ONE) DENIED THAT

"SAWT AL ARAB" IS A NASSERIST ORGAN, CHARGING (AS DO MANY

OF OUR INTERLOCUTORS) THAT MANAF IS ON THE LIBYAN

PAYROLL. ONE OF MANAF'S FORMER UNIVERSITY MENTORS SAID

MANAF IS A "FANATIC," BUT FIRMLY DENIED THE PREVALENT

BELIEF THAT MANAF GETS LIBYAN FUNDING, CLAIMING SAWT AL

ARAB IS INSTEAD SUPPORTED BY THE SONS OF NASSER. FOR HIS

PART, FARID ABDEL KARIM DENIES LINKS WITH MANAF OR HIS

NEWSPAPER; HE ALSO DENIES THAT MANAF HAS POLITICAL

CONNECTIONS WITH LIBYA OR THE SONS OF NASSER. THE OFFICE

OF SAWT AL ARAB ALSO DENIES CONNECTIONS WITH ABDEL KARIM'S

ASNP, ALTHOUGH THE PAPER HEAVILY COVERS ABDEL KARIM AND

TOUTS A NASSERIST LINE. THE PRACTICAL BUT UNOFFICIAL LINK

BETWEEN THE ASNP AND SAWT AL ARAB IS DARING, BECAUSE UNTIL

THE ASNP IS FORMALLY ESTABLISHED IT MAY NOT LEGALLY

PUBLISH A REGULAR NEWSPAPER. MININT ZEKI BADR COULD CLOSE

BOTH ORGANIZATIONS AT HIS PLEASURE ON THIS LEGAL BASIS.





9. COMMENT. WE DETECT NO CONSENSUAL UNDERSTANDING OF

WHAT THE TERM "NASSERISM" MEANS, AND NO POPULAR BASIS FOR

A REVIVAL OF NASSERISM AS A POLITICAL MOVEMENT,

PARTICULARLY IN THE ABSENCE OF A SIMILARLY CHARISMATIC

NATIONAL HERO. AS HEIKAL SUGGESTED, THE ESSENCE OF

NASSERISM, AND THAT FOR WHICH SOME NOSTALGIA REMAINS, WAS

THE MAN AND HIS IMAGE, RATHER THAN ANY COHERENT BODY OF

IDEAS. MANY PUBLIC SECTOR WORKERS AND GOVERNMENT

EMPLOYEES PROBABLY DO SHARE LEFTIST INTELLECTUALS'

RESENTMENT AT THE PERCEIVED U.S. PRESSURE ON MUBARAK AND

HIS GOVERNMENT TO ADOPT ECONOMIC MEASURES THEY CONSIDER

INIMICAL TO THEIR INTERESTS. MANY EGYPTIANS NO DOUBT ALSO

SHARE THE NASSERISTS' BITTER ANTI-ISRAELI ATTITUDES, BUT

SUCH ATTITUDES ARE ALSO HELD BY ISLAMIC OPPONENTS OF

NASSERISM, AND DO NOT DETERMINE AN INDIVIDUAL'S

IDENTIFICATION AS A "NASSERIST." THE CHIEF IMPLICATION OF

LATTER DAY NASSERISM FOR U.S. INTERESTS IS ITS POTENTIAL

TO DIMINISH POPULAR SUPPORT, OR AT LEAST TOLERANCE, FOR

THE ECONOMIC REFORMS REQUIRED FOR EGYPTIAN STABILITY.

THEY LACK ORGANIZATION AND MASS APPEAL, SO THEIR

EFFECTIVENESS IN ACTUALLY INCITING THE PEOPLE AGAINST

ECONOMIC REFORMS PROBABLY WOULD BE ONLY MARGINALLY

INCREASED IF THEY EVENTUALLY ARE PERMITTED TO FORM A

LEGITIMATE PARTY (OR PARTIES) UNDER THE CURRENT INFORMAL

LEADERSHIP. END COMMENT.





WISNER