SYRIA AND IRAN IN LEBANON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 033 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PREL SY IR LE IS SUBJECT: SYRIA AND IRAN IN LEBANON REFTEL: DAMASCUS 3747 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. WE READ WITH CONSIDERABLE INTEREST REFTEL ON THE JOCKEYING OF SYRIAN AND IRANIAN INTERESTS IN LEBANON. EMBASSY BEIRUT, HOWEVER, MIGHT WELL EMPHASIZE DIFFERENT POINTS IN JUDGING THE STATUS OF SYRIAN, IRANIAN, AND ISRAELI POLICY IN LEBANON. ¶3. WE JUDGE THAT SYRIA AND ISRAEL ARE IN A CLASS BY THEMSELVES IN TERMS OF ABILITY TO EXERCISE POWER IN LEBANON. THEY BORDER ON LEBANON; THEY CONTINUOUSLY PROJEC CONVENTIONAL MILITARY POWER INTO LEBANON; AND, THEY BOTH HAVE ESTABLISHED NETWORKS OF LEBANESE FRIENDS AND ALLIES. OF THESE THREE INGREDIENTS OF POWER IRAN HAS ONLY A LESS EXTENSIVE, BUT GROWING, NETWORK OF FRIENDS AND ALLIES. ¶3. WE AGREE WITH DAMASCUS REFTEL THAT THE ASPIRATIONS OF FUNDAMENTALIST IRAN AND SECULAR SYRIA IN LEBANON ARE IN CONFLICT. PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE, HOWEVER, THE IRANIANS ARE PLAYING CATCH-UP BALL AGAINST SUBSTANTIAL SYRIAN ADVANTAGES. FOR EXAMPLE, OUR INTERPRETATION OF SEVERAL RECENT PHENOMENA WOULD BE DIFFERENT: --THE TRUCE IN THE CAMPS WAR ARRANGED BY IRANIAN DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER BESHARATI WAS EXCEPTIONALLY TRANSITORY; IT LASTED ONLY LONG ENOUGH TO EVACUATE A HANDFUL OF PALESTINIANS FROM THE CAMPS. GIVEN IRAN'S LACK OF LEVERAGE OVER AMAL AND THE PALESTINIANS, THE SIGNIGICANCE OF THIS TRUCE WAS HEAVILY DISCOUNTED BEFORE IT WENT INTO EFFECT. --ALTHOUGH THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION MAY BE THE MOST DYNAMIC MOVEMENT IN THE MIDDLE EAST OVER THE PAST DECADE, IT IS OUR FIRM IMPRESSION THAT A MAJORITY OF LEBANESE SHIA CONSIDER IT TO BE MORE THREATENING THAN ALLURING. OF COURSE IT HAS ALLURE FOR THE MORE FUNDAMENTALIST ELEMENTS, BUT THEY ARE STILL A MINORITY. EVEN HIZBALLAH'S SHAYK FADLALLAH MAINTAINS THAT IRAN'S REVOLUTION CANNOT BE DUPLICATED IN LEBANON. --SYRIA'S FORBEARANCE IN NOT CLAMPING DOWN ON IRANIAN ACTIVITIES IN LEBANON SEEMS TO BE A PRODUCT OF SYRIAN CONFIDENCE IN ITS ABILITY TO DO SO AND ITS SENSITIVITY REGARDING IRANIAN-SYRIAN TIES. WE DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT IS BROUGHT ABOUT BY A LACK OF CAPACITY. MCNAMARA