CONFLICT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LEBANESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 01023 SIPDIS E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PINR LE SUBJECT: CONFLICT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LEBANESE COMMUNIST PARTY REF: BEIRUT 1006 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. DURING BRIEF CONVERSATION WITH POLOFF ON FEBRUARY 26, DR. JAMIL NAHMI, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF PUBLIC SECURITY (SURETE GENERALE),OFFERED HIS ANALYSIS OF THE RECENT CLASHES IN WEST BEIRUT BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND LEBANESE COMMUNIST PARTY(LCP) MILITIAS. ¶3. NAHMI FIRST NOTED THE DEEP IDEOLOGICIAL DIVIDE WHICH SEPARATES RELIGIOUS FUNDAMENTALISM AND COMMUNIST DOCTRINE. UNLIKE MANY OTHER OPPOSING MILITIAS IN LEBANON WHICH MAINTAIN SOME CONTACTS DESPITE THEIR ANIMOSITIES, THE IDEOLOGICAL DIVIDE BETWEEN HIZBALLAH AND THE LPC WAS SO DEEP THAT IT HAD PRECLUDED ANY WORKING CONTACTS BETWEEN THE TWO ORGANIZATIONS. ¶4. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, NAHMI SITUATED THE ORIGIN OF THE CURRENT HIZBALLAH/LPC CONFLICT IN SOUTH LEBANON. HE ASSERTED THAT OVER THE PAST TWO MONTHS AMAL HAD SUCCEEDED IN REDUCING SSNP AND LPC PRESENCE IN SOUTH LEBANON AND THAT MANY COMMUNIST MILITIAMEN HAD MIGRATED TO WEST BEIRUT. SIMULTANEOUSLY, A SIGNIFICANT NUMBER OF HIZBALLAHI HAD ALSO COME TO WESMV BEIRUT FROM THE SOUTH. THUS, NAHMI EXPLAINED, THESE TWO FUNDAMENTALLY OPPOSING MILITIAS FOUND THEMSELVES CONCENTRATED IN WEST BEIRUT, WHICH IS A RELATIVELY SMALL AREA. THIS CONCENTRATION OF FORCES IN WEST BEIRUT, THE GENERAL LAWLESSNES AND DISORDER THERE, AND THE LACK OF ADEQUATE COUNTERVAILING SECURITY FORCES HAD PROVIDED FERTILE GROUND FOR A HIZBALLAH/LPC CONFLICT. THE CLASHES HAD APPARENTLY ERUPTED AT THE STREET LEVEL AND SIMPLY ESCALATED. ¶5. ASKED ABOUT REPORTS (REFTEL) THAT SHIITE AND SUNNI MUSLIM FUNDAMENTALISTS WERE COOPERATING IN WEST BEIRUT AGAINST THE COMMUNISTS, NAHMI RESPONDED THAT THERE WAS SOME "COINCIDENCE OF OBJECTIVES" BETWEEN PRO-IRANIAN FUNDAMENTALIST GROUPS, BE THEY SHIITE OR SZNNI. THEY BOTH TOOK GUIDANCE FROM TEHRAN, WHOSE OWN RELATIONS WITH SYRIA HAVE DETERIORIATED, AND THEY BOTH HAD THEIR OWN REASONS TO OPPOSE PRO-SYRIAN LEFTIST GROUPS SUCH AS THE LCP AND THE SSNP. SUNNI FUNDAMENTALISTS SUCH AS THE TAWHIID MOVEMENT REMAINED BITTER OVER THEIR DEFEAT IN TRIPOLI LAST FALL BY SSNP XD LCP FORCES BACKED BY SYRIA. THE SHIITE FUNDAMENTALISTS SUCH AS HIZBALLAH WERE NOW DETERMINED TO OPPOSE MORE DIRECTLY PRO-SYRIAN LEFTIST GROUPS, BOTH BECAUSE OF THE RELIGIOUS-VERSUS-SECULAR IDEOLOGICAL SPLIT AND BECAUSE OF THEIR DETERIORATING RELATIONS WITH SYRIA ITSELF. NAHMI PREDICTED, HOWEVER, THAT THE TRADITIONAL RIFT BETWEEN SHIITE AND SUNNI FUNDAMENTALISTS WOULD QUICKLY REAPPEAR WHEN THEY NO LONGER FACED A COMMON ENEMY. ¶6. IN A BRIEF ASIDE, NAHMI MENTIONED THAT HE HAD MET SEPARATELY WITH PSP LEADER JUMBLATT AND AMAL LEADER BARRI OVER THE PAST TEN DAYS. HE SAID JUMBLATT SEEMED TO KNOW WERE HE STANDS WITHIN HIS COMMUNITY AND SPOKE WITH SOME CONFIDANCE AND AUTHORITY. BARRI, HOWEVER, SEEMED "EXTREMELY ILL AT EASE" ABOUT HIS POSITION AND ACTED AS IF HE WERE "WALKING ON SHIFTING SANDS." UNFORTUNATELY, THE CONVERSATION WAS PREEMPTED AT THIS POINT, AND WE CALD NOT DRAW NAHMI M FURTHER ON HIS ASSESSMENT OF BARRI'S POSITION WITHIN THE SHIITE COMMUNITY. ¶7. BIOGRAPHIC NOTE. JAMIL NAHMI HAS A DOCTORATE IN INTERNATIONAL LAW AND WAS THE DIRECTOR OF THE LEBANESE UNIVERSITY LAW SCHOOL. A STAUNCH GEMAYEL LOYALIST, NAHMI WAS ALSO AFFILIATED WITH THE "HOUSE OF THE FUTURE," THE PRESIDENT'S THINK TANK AND PUBLISHING HOUSE. ALTHOUGH A PHALANGIST, NAHMI COMES FROM KFAR AKKA NEAR AMIUN IN NORTH LEBANON, I.E., FROM THE FRANJIYYAH HEARTLAND. BARTHOLOMEW