MFA SPECULATION ON MOTIVES FOR NEVE SHALOM

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANKARA 09557 E.O. 12356: DECL/OADR TAGS: PREL PTER TU IS SUBJECT: MFA SPECULATION ON MOTIVES FOR NEVE SHALOM ATTACK ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. DURING A LUNCHEON ON SEPTEMBER 15, MFA OFFICE DIRECTOR FOR THE LEVANT AND NORTH AFRICA, SOLMAZ UNAYDIN, OBVIOUSLY STILL APPALLED AT THE WANTON SLAUGHTER, TOLD POLOFF THAT THE MFA IS AT A LOSS TO EXPLAIN THE MOTIVES FOR THE NEVE SHALOM MASSACRE. CONSIDERING THE PECULIAR AWFULNESS IN MUSLIM EYES OF KILLING PEOPLE AT PRAYER, SHE SAID, IT WAS HARD TO UNDERSTAND WHAT ANY ARAB OR OTHER MUSLIM GROUP COULD HAVE HOPED TO GAIN. THE OFFICIAL ADMITTED THAT IT WAS POSSIBLE THAT SOME MILITANT GROUP COULD HAVE WISHED TO EMBROIL TURKEY IN THE MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT, BUT SHE BELIEVED THAT THIS WAS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN ONLY A SUBSIDIARY MOTIVE. SIMILARLY, SHE ARGUED THAT IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN PARTLY AN ATTEMPT TO SEPARATE TURKEY FROM THE UNITED STATES OR--LESS LIKELY--ISRAEL. THIS WAS NOT THE MOST PROBABLE THEORY, SHE CONTENDED, BECAUSE THE PREDICTABLE NET EFFECT WOULD HAVE BEEN WHAT IN FACT TRANSPIRED, INCREASED COOPERATION AGAINST TERRORISM AMONG THE THREE NATIONS, AND A GREATER IMPETUS TOWARD SIMILAR COOPERATION BETWEEN TURKEY AND THE WESTERN EUROPEAN STATES. ¶3. MRS. UNAYDIN BELIEVES THAT IT IS MOST SIGNIFICANT THAT WITHIN ONLY A FEW DAYS BOTH TURKEY AND PAKISTAN, THE MOST STABLE AND MODERATE MUSLIM ALLIES OF THE UNITED STATES IN THE REGION, SHOULD HAVE BEEN ATTACKED IN THIS WAY. SHE SPECULATED THAT THE TERRORIST ACTS MIGHT HAVE BEEN DESIGNED TO EMBARRASS THE TWO STATES, AND TO CONSTITUTE SOME SORT OF WARNING AGAINST THEIR INVOLVEMENT IN THE PEACE PROCESS OR AGAINST ANY ACTIONS CONTRARY TO THE INTERESTS OF MILITANT MUSLIMS. ¶4. WHILE SHE COULD NOT SAY WHO WAS RESPONSIBLE, UNAYDIN ASKED POLOFF WHETHER THE UNITED STATES HAD ANY BETTER INFORMATION THAN TURKEY ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT ABU NIDAL HAD BEEN BEHIND THE TWO EVENTS. THEY BOTH SEEMED TO BEAR HIS GROUP'S HALLMARKS: CAREFUL PLANNING AND EXECUTION. STRAUSZ-HUPE