LIBYAN ACTIVITY IN AFRICA: SOMALIA

S E C R E T MOGADISHU 01292



E.O. 12356: DNG: OADR

TAGS: PGOV, PREL, PINT, SO

SUBJ: LIBYAN ACTIVITY IN AFRICA: SOMALIA



REFS: STATE 7202





1. (SECRET - ENTIRE TEXT).



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2. THE FOLLOWING IS IN RESPONSE TO THE QUESTIONS

POSED IN PARAGRAPH FIVE OF REFTEL.



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3. CURRENTLY THERE IS NO LIBYAN PRESENCE IN SOMALIA.



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4. SOMALIA HAS NO OFFICIAL RELATIONS WITH LIBYA.

THE GSDR VIEWS QADHAFI AS AN ENEMY BECAUSE HE

SUPPORTS THE SOMALI DISSIDENT ORGANIZATIONS TRYING

TO BRING DOWN THE SOMALI GOVERNMENT. THERE HAVE

BEEN RUMORS RECENTLY OF TENTATIVE CONTACTS BETWEEN

SOMALIA AND LIBYA ABOUT RESTORING RELATIONS.

ITALIANS HAVE TOLD US THAT DISCUSSIONS ARE UNDER

WAY ABOUT PLACING A SOMALI DIPLOMAT IN THE ITALIAN

EMBASSY IN TRIPOLI AND A LIBYAN DIPLOMAT IN THE

YUGOSLAV EMBASSY IN MOGADISHU. IT SEEMS LIKELY,

IF TRUE, THAT PRESIDENT SIAD WILL TRY TO USE THE

LIBYANS' DESIRE FOR IMPROVED RELATIONS AS A LEVER

TO PERSUADE THEM TO STOP SUPPORTING THE DISSIDENTS.



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5. OVERT OPPOSITION TO THE SIAD REGIME IS CENTERED

ON TWO DISSIDENT GROUPS, THE SOMALI NATIONAL

MOVEMENT (SNM) AND THE SOMALI DEMOCRATIC SALVATION

FRONT (SDSF),WHICH ARE HEADQUARTERED IN ADDIS

ABABA AND OPERATE AGAINST SOMALIA OUT OF ETHIOPIA.

WE UNDERSTAND LIBYA HAS BEEN SUPPORTING THESE GROUPS

FOR SEVERAL YEARS.



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6. LIBYAN SUPPORT FOR THE DISSIDENTS HAS BEEN

CONSTRAINED ON OCCASION BECAUSE OF THE MOVEMENTS'

RELUCTANCE TO MERGE AS QADHAFI DESIRES OR TO FOLLOW

A MORE RADICAL IDEOLOGICAL LINE.



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7. AT THE PRESENT TIME, THE GSDR IS UNLIKELY TO

SUPPORT LIBYAN SUBVERSIVE ACTIVITIES ANYWHERE IN

AFRICA EXCEPT AGAINST ETHIOPIA. OVER THE PAST

YEAR, SOMALIA PUBLICLY HAS CRITICIZED LIBYAN

ACTIVITIES IN CHAD AND ELSEWHERE IN AFRICA, AS WELL

AS LIBYAN SUPPORT FOR THE SNM AND THE SDSF.

HOWEVER, SOMALIA DOES NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES TO

ASSIST ANY COUNTRY THREATENED BY THE LIBYANS.



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8. THE FACT THAT SOMALIA AND LIBYA ARE BOTH ISLAMIC

COUNTRIES IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN THEIR

RELATIONS WITH EACH OTHER.



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9. ARMED CONFLICT BETWEEN SOMALIA AND LIBYA IS

POSSIBLE IF LIBYAN FORCES WERE TO BE SENT TO

ETHIOPIA AND TOOK UP POSITIONS ALONG THE BORDER

WITH SOMALIA. WE BELIEVE THAT FULL-SCALE WAR

BETWEEN SOMALIA AND ETHIOPIA IS UNLIKELY. CROSS

BORDER SKIRMISHES, HOWEVER, ARE RECURRENT AND

POSSIBLE LIBYAN INVOLVEMENT CANNOT BE EXCLUDED,

ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD MEAN ADDING A NEW ELEMENT

TO THE CURRENT SOVIET/CUBAN MILITARY INVOLVEMENT

IN ETHIOPIA.



BRIDGES