A BAD WEEK FOR BEIRUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 04802



E.O. 12356: OADR: DECL

TAGS: PTER PGOV LE

SUBJECT: A BAD WEEK FOR BEIRUT



1.(U) SUMMARY. THE WEEK AUGUST 11-18 WITNESSED THE WORST

OUTBREAKS OF VIOLENCE IN BEIRUT SINCE THE IMPLEMENTATION

OF THE SYRIAN SECURITY PLAN FOR WEST BEIRUT. TWO MASSIVE

CAR BOMBS ROCKED EAST BEIRUT ON AUGUST 14 AND 17, AND

SHELLING ACROSS THE GREENLINE INTENSIFIED UNTIL A

FRAGILE CEASEFIRE WAS PUT BACK IN PLACE ON AUGUST 15.

OTHER VIOLENCE WAS REPORTED IN ZAHLE, NEAR THE PALESTINIAN

CAMPS, AND IN TYRE. MEANWHILE THE INABILITY OF THE

CABINET TO MEET SYMBOLIZED THE CONTINUED STALL IN THE

POLITICAL PROCESS. END SUMMARY.



2.(U) EARLY IN THE WEEK BLIND SHELLING ACROSS THE

GREEN LINE RESUMED, CULMINATING IN A SIX HOUR EXCHANGE

OF HEAVY ARTILLERY AND ROCKET FIRE ON AUGUST 15 THAT

ENDED FINALLY AT THE FOURTH ATTEMPT TO IMPOSE A CEASE-

FIRE. INTERMITTENT SHELLING HAS SINCE OCCURED, BUT AT

A REDUCED RATE. A WEDNESDAY NOON CAR BOMB IN SADD AL

BASHURIYAH CAUSED 13 DEATHS.



3.(U) SATURDAY'S CAR BOMB, OUTSIDE A BUSY SUPERMARKET

ON THE MAIN COASTAL ROAD IN ANTILYAS, CAUSED 67 DEATHS

AND 122 WOUNDED. MOST OF THE DEATHS WERE CAUSED BY THE

FIRE THAT TRAPPED SHOPPERS AND EMPLOYEES INSIDE THE

BOMBED BUILDING, BUT THE BLAST ITSELF, ESTIMATED AT THE

FORCE OF 1,000 KILOS OF TNT, WAS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO HURL

FIVE BODIES ACROSS THE COASTAL HIGHWAY AND INTO THE SEA.

ACCORDING TO THE PRESS AGENCY "MARKAZIA" RESPONSIBILITY

FOR THE BOMB HAS BEEN CLAIMED BY A GROUP CALLING ITSELF

"THE RED HAND - BRIGADE OF SADR."



4. (U) DURING THE WEEK ZAHLE HAS BEEN SUBJECTED TO

EARLY MORNING ATTACKS THAT HAVE CAUSED ONLY MATERIAL

DAMAGE. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, LF LEADER ELIE

HOBAYKA AGREED AT A FRIDAY MEETING WITH A LOCAL GREEK

CATHOLIC DELEGATION TO CLOSE PHALANGE OFFICES IN THE

CITY AND TO WITHDRAW LF MILITIAMEN.



5. (U) IN OTHER EVENTS THERE WAS AN ATTACK ON AMAL OFFICES

IN TYRE ON AUGUST 15. LEBANESE STATE TV REPORTED FIRST

THAT THIS ATTACK HAD BEEN COMMITTED BY HIZBALLAH FORCES

TO PROTEST AMAL RESTRICTIONS ON HIZBALLAH ACTIVITIES IN

THE SOUTH AND THEN SUGGESTED THAT THE FIRE COULD HAVE

COME FROM A ISRAELI PATROL VESSEL. ON AUGUST 17 THERE

WAS A CLASH USING AUTOMATIC WEAPONS AND RPG'S BETWEEN

AMAL AND PLO FORCES OUTSIDE THE SABRA CAMP. PALESTINIANS

CLAIMED THAT AMAL WAS HOLDING MOUSTAPHA DIAB, AKA

ABOUL FATEH, HEAD OF THE ARAFAT FORCES IN LEBANON. AN

AUTHORIZED AMAL SPOKESMAN SAID THAT AMAL WAS NOT NOW

HOLDING ANY PALESTINIANS.



6. (U) THE WEEK ALSO FAILED TO REGISTER ANY FORWARD

PROGRESS IN POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS. IN FACT AFTER THE

ANTILYAS CAR BOMB PRIME MINISTER KARAME WAS QUOTED AS

SAYING HE "DIDN'T KNOW WHAT TO DO, WHETHER TO RESIGN OR

TO CONTINUE ON." SHIITE CABINET MINISTERS USAYRAN AND

BARRI, AFTER ANNOUNCING THAT THEY WOULD ATTEND A MEETING

OF MUSLIM CABINET MINISTERS ON AUGUST 19, STATED THAT

"IT IS TIME THAT THE SECURITY CONDITION IMPROVES AND THAT

SYRIA CONTRIBUTES TO AN IMPROVEMENT ON THE GROUND." FOR

ITS PART THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE LF ISSUED A

STATEMENT "PROMISING TO TAKE REVENGE FOR INNOCENT

VICTIMS AND TO UNDERTAKE A RESPONSE AT A LEVEL COMMEN-

SURATE WITH THE CRIME."



7. (C) COMMENT. LAST WEEK'S EVENTS HAD NO POSITIVE ASPECT.

LITTLE IS EXPECTED TO COME FROM TODAY'S MEETING OF

MUSLIM CABINET MINISTERS, FROM WHICH THE TRAVELING

WALID JUMBLATT WILL BE ABSENT. ON THE CHRISTIAN SIDE

CONSULTATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PREPARATION

FOR FRANJIYYAH'S RELEASE ON SEPT. 1 OF HIS PROPOSALS

FOR REFORM. ON THE SECURITY FRONT THERE ARE TOO MANY

FLASHPOINTS - ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER STRIP, NEAR THE

PALESTINIAN CAMPS, ALONG THE GREEN LINE, IN ZAHLE OR

IN TRIPOLI, TO PREDICT A QUIET WEEK AHEAD.





BARTHOLOMEW