FALLOUT FROM SIDON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 02486

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PREL LE
SUBJECT: FALLOUT FROM SIDON

REF: BEIRUT 2456


1. C-ENTIRE TEXT.


2. CONFUSION CONTINUES ABOUT EXACT SITUATION IN VILLAGES
EAST OF SIDON (REFTEL) WITH BEIRUT PARTIES PLAYING USUAL
ROLES IN GREEK CHORUS ON SIDELINES. PALESTINIAN AND
FUNDAMENTALIST MUSLIM FORCES APPARENTLY CONTINUE TO OCCUPY
SEVEN CHRISTIAN TOWNS THEY SEIZED EAST OF SIDON. REPORTS
FILTER IN ABOUT SOME 25,000 TO 75,000 CHRISTIAN REFUGEES
FROM REGION FLEEING TO EITHER JEZZIN OR BEIRUT.


3. MEANWHILE, ESLEWHERE:
- ASL COMMANDER LAHAD REPORTEDLY ISSUED STATEMENT 26
APRIL THREATENING TO SHELL SIDON UNLESS PALESTINIANS AND
MUSLIM MILITIA CEASE OFFENSIVE. HE ALSO IS QUOTED AS
WARNING LAF AGAINST SENDING TROOPS TO JEZZIN "BEFORE
BRINGING THE SECURITY SITUATION IN SIDON UNDER CONTROL AND
FORCING THE PALESTINIANS BACK INTO THEIR CAMPS."

- PRESIDENT GEMAYEL TELEPHONED SYRIAN PRESIDENT ASSAD TO
BRIEF HIM ON DEVELOPMENTS IN SIDON; TWO LEADERS AGREED
TO KEEP IN TOUCH.

- CHRISTIAN RELIGIOUS LEADERS MET 26 FRIDAY AND DEPLORED
SITUATION IN SIDON, CALLED ON FRIENDLY COUNTRIES
("PARTICULARLY SYRIA"),"ALL FREE NATIONS", AND POPE TO
HELP. OTHER CHRISTIAN LEADERS, LED BY CAMILLE CHAMOUN,
ISSUED SIMILAR STATEMENTS

- GEMAYEL, PARLIAMENT SPEAKER HUSSEINI, AND PM KARAMI
MET 26 APRIL TO REVIEW SITUATION. KARAMI AFTER MEETING
COMMENTED IN PART THAT RECENT ATTACKS IN SIDON WERE
"REACTIONS WHICH EXPOSED OUR BROTHERS...TO WHAT HAD
HAPPENED TO THEIR BROTHERS IN SIDON", COMMENT WHICH
SPARKED SHARP CHRISTIAN REACTION AGAINST WHAT THEY
VIEWED AS EXAMPLE OF KARAMI'S LACK OF CONCERN FOR
CHRISTIANS WOES. REMAINDER OF KARAMI'S REMARKS AND THOSE
OF HUSSEINI AND OTHER MUSLIM LEADERS WERE DUTIFULLY
SOLEMN.

- SIDON DEPUTY NAZIH BIZRI ISSUED A STATEMENT
CONGRATULATING THE INHABITANTS OF SIDON FOR
THEIR, "VICTORY AGAINST THE LEBANESE FORCES AND
THE AGENTS OF ISRAEL." ACCORDING TO BIZRI,
"WHAT HAS COME TO PASS IS THE WORK OF
SIDONIANS," NOT OF ARAFAT PALESTINIANS. HE
CALLED THE EXODUS OF CHRISTIAN VILLAGERS AN
"ISRAELI PLOT," AND CALLED ON THE REFUGEES TO
RETURN TO THEIR HOMES.

- JA'JA'S CALL FOR A GENERAL STRIKE IN EAST
BEIRUT FOR APRIL 27 AS A PROTEST AGAINST SIDON
EVENTS, A CALL IN WHICH THE PHALANGE PARTY
JOINED 26 APRIL, HAS PROVED SUCCESSFUL, WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL GAS STATIONS, BAKERIES, MOM AND
POP CORNER GROCERY STORES, PHARMACIES, AND
SIDEWALK NEWSTANDS OPERATING.

- CHRISTIAN STUDENT DEMONSTRATORS 26 APRIL
NUMBERING AN ESTIMATED 500 STUDENTS, MOSTLY FROM
THE SOUTH, MARCHED ON THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE TO
CRITICIZE THE FAILURE OF LAF TO DEPLOY TO
PROTECT THE VILLAGES AFTER THE WITHDRAWAL OF THE
LEBANESE FORCES. DELEGATIONS OF DEMONSTRATORS
MET WITH LAF COMMANDER GENERAL A'OUN. THE ONLY
LAF REACTION THUS FAR HAS BEEN A CALL BY GENERAL
A'OUN FOR LAF SOLDIERS IN THE SIDON REGION TO
REPORT TO THEIR UNITS.

- ANOTHER DEMONSTRATION BY SOUTHERNERS
RESIDING IN BEIRUT OCCURRED 26 APRIL ON THE
AUTOSTRADE NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL, WITH
DEMONSTRATORS BLOCKING ROADS, BURNING TIRES, AND
FIRING IN THE AIR. OTHER DEMONSTRATIONS IN EAST
BEIRUT ARE REPORTEDLY SCHEDULED FOR APRIL 27.

- APPARENTLY AS THE RESULT OF AMAL LEADER
BARRI WORKING WITH CHRISTIAN LEADERS, AMAL HAS
REPORTEDLY DEPLOYED IN STRENGTH OUTSIDE THE
CHRISTIAN VILLAGE OF MAGHDUSHAH (POP. 8000) NEAR
MIYAH MIYAH TO PROVIDE PROTECTION TO THE VILLAGE
AGAINST ADVANCING PALESTINIAN/MUSLIM FORCES.
MAGHDUSHAH REMAINS CALM AND SECURE 27 APRIL.


4. COMMENT. ESTIMATES OF NUMBERS OF REFUGEES
APPEAR EXAGGERATED, AS DO LOCAL STORIES OF
"PALESTINIAN HORDES LOOTING AND BURNING."
NONETHELESS, THIS PERSPECTIVE REFLECTS DEEP
CHRISTIAN ANXIETY OVER THE SIDON EVENTS. THE
MAIN TARGETS FOR CHRISTIAN REACTION ARE LAF, FOR
ITS FAILURE TO DEPLOY AS AGREED TO REPLACE
DEPARTING LF FORCES, AND MUSLIM LEADERS FOR
"FAILING TO KEEP THEIR WORD" TO PROTECT
CHRISTIANS IN THE SOUTH AS AGREED ALSO AS THE
PRICE OF LF PULLOUT. BARRI'S AMAL GETS GRUDGING
CREDIT FOR DEPLOYING OUTSIDE MAGHDUSHAH.


5. LAF DEPLOYMENT AWAITS "POLITICAL COVER"
WHICH A'OUN TRIES TO INSIST ON BEFORE ACTING.
SATURDAY, APRIL 27, IS FULL OF MEETINGS,
CONSULTATIONS, TRAVELS, ETC., TRYING TO SET UP
BACKSTAGE ARRANGEMENTS WHICH WOULD PROVIDE SUCH
COVER.


6. SOME CHRISTIANS INTERPRET THE ABSENCE OF
"POLITICAL COVER" FOR LAF DEPLOYMENT AS A
REFLECTION OF AN AGREEMENT TO COMPENSATE THE
SUNNIS IN SIDON FOR WHAT THEY LOST IN WEST
BEIRUT. THE MAIN WINNER THUS FAR, HOWEVER,
APPEARS TO BE THE ARAFATI PLO, WHICH HAS
EXPANDED ITS CONTROL AND STRENGTHENED ITS
POSITION AROUND THE CAMPS, A RESULT WHICH
PRESUMABLY WILL NOT WARM ASSAD'S HEART.


7. THE PHALANGE'S JOINING IN THE CALL FOR A
GENERAL STRIKE IN PROTEST AGAINST THE SIDON
EVENTS AND GOVERNMENT/LAF INACTION MAKES IT MORE
DIFFICULT TO PORTRAY BEIRUT DEMONSTRATIONS AS
LF-INTIFIDA ALONE DEFENDING CHRISTIAN INTERESTS,
BUT FASTER REACTION WOULD HAVE GAINED THEM MORE
CREDIT. END COMMENT.

BARTHOLOMEW