JA'JA'-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT

S E C R E T BEIRUT 01952 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV LE SUBJECT: JA'JA'-PHALANGE STALEMATE DRAGGING OUT ¶1. S-ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. PHALANGE POLITBURO MEMBER ALFRED MAHDI, WHO REMAINS PERSONALLY CLOSE TU JA'JA', 29 MARCH PROVIDED CHARGE WHAT WE SENSE IS ACCURATE WRAP-UP OF CURRENT STATE OF PLAY BETWEEN JA'JA' FORCES AND PHALANGE. ¶3. MAHDI SAID CURRENT INTERMINABLE DISCUSSIONS ABOUT REORGANIZED PHALANGE PARTY, ENLARGED LEBANESE FRONT, AND NEW CHRISTIAN COUNCIL REPRESENT DESIRE OF BOTH CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT (CDM) AND PHALANGE TO STRING OUT NEGOTIATIONS. ¶4. PHALANGE SEES TIME AS BEING ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPT TO EXPLOIT DISAFFECTION AND SPLITS IN CDM RESULTING FROM GROWING AWARENESS OF LACK OF SPECIFIC REALISTIC POLICIES AND OF DANGERS CDM HAS CREATED OF SYRIAN INTERVENTION AND WEAKENED CHRISTIAN UNIT. ¶5. CDM SEES TIME ON ITS SIDE AS IT ATTEMPTS TO SEDUCE REMAINING GEMAYEL BACKERS AMONG LF IN METN, TO REASSURE SYRIANS WHILE OPENING UP DIRECT CONTACT WITH THEM (NUMEROUS SOURCES REPORT HOBEIKA HAS REGULAR CONTACT WITH RIFFAT),AND TO STRENGTHEN ITS APPEAL AT GRASSROOTS LEVEL. (WITNESS JA'JA'S SFEECH TO STUDENTS BEIRUT). ¶6. MAHDI BELIEVES THAT TIME IS RUNNING OUT FOR THIS SPARRING AND STALLING AND THAT TWO SIDES MUST NOW BEGIN TO GRAPPLE WITH REAL PROBLEMS AND SEEK GENUINE SOLUTIONS. HE SAID THAT ALTHOUGH HE HAS NOT SEEN GEMAYEL SINCE MARCH 14, HE BELIEVES GEMAYEL SHARES HIS VIEW THAT TWO SIDES MUST SERIOUSLY PURSUE RESOLUTION OF THEIR DIFFERENCES. IF NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE TO DRAG ON UNCONCLUSIVELY, MAHDI SAID, ALL DANGERS PREDICTED BY BOTH SIDES WILL COME TRUE -- SYRIAN INTERVENTION, WEAKENED AND DIVIDED CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY, SHARP MUSLIM REACTION, ETC. IN ADDITION, MAHDI SAID INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS SITUATION IN SOUTH, CUTTING OFF OF NORTH, AND DEGRADATION OF SECURITY IN WEST BEIRUT, CREATES BACKDROP OF EVENTS WHICH REQUIRES THAT RESOLUTION OF THIS INTERNAL CHRISTIAN QUARREL COME RAPIDLY. ¶7. COMMENT: MAHDI'S COMMENTS EXPLAIN IN PART LIMITED PROGRESS MURR/HASHIM/PAKRADUNI COMMITTEE HAS MADE IN LAST WEEK, AND OFFER LITTLE OPTIMISM FOR NEAR TERM PROGRESS. LYNE