SYRIAN EXERTS PRESSURE ON LEBANESE

C O N F I D E N T I A L BEIRUT 01668 E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR TAGS: PGOV PREL LE SUBJECT: SYRIAN EXERTS PRESSURE ON LEBANESE FORCE DISSIDENTS REFS: (A) DAMASCUS 1787, (B) BEIRUT 1653, (C) BEIRUT 164 ¶1. CONFIDENTIAL ENTIRE TEXT. ¶2. SYRIA CONTINUES TO EXERT POLITICAL AND MILITARY PRESSURE AGAINST DISSIDENT ELEMENTS OF THE LEBANESE FORCES. STATEMENTS FROM DAMASCUS BY SYRIAN AND LEBANESE LEADERS HINT AT RETALIATION IF THE REVOLT CONTINUES. AFTER MEETING WITH PRESIDENT ASSAD, FORMER PRESIDENT SULEIMAN FRANJIEH MET ON MARCH 16 WITH MINISTERS BARRI AND JUMBLATT IN DAMASCUS. AFTERWARD, THEY ISSUED A STATEMENT INCLUDING A VEILED THREAT: "THE ACTION UNDERTAKEN IN CERTAIN REGIONS OF LEBANON BY A GROUP WITH SUSPECTED TIES TO ISRAEL AND SUPPORTED BY THE UNITED STATES THREATENS THE UNITY, PEACE, AND EXISTENCE OF LEBANON AND COULD LEAD TO RENEWED CIVIL WAR." THIS IS ONLY THE LATEST IN A SERIES OF MENACING STATEMENTS ISSUING FROM THE SYRIAN CAPITAL. ¶3. ON THE MILITARY FRONT, THE SITUATION DE- SCRIBED IN REFTEL B CONTINUES. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY INTENTION TO ENGAGE LF UNITS AT MADFOUN. TO THE CONTRARY, L'ORIENT- LE JOUR REPORTS PM KARAMI SAYING PRIVATELY THAT SYRIAN FORCES WOULD NOT INTERVENE WITHOUT AN OFFICIAL GOL REQUEST. ¶4. JA' JA' AND HIS DISSIDENTS ARE RESPONDING TO THIS SYRIAN INTIMIDATION. THEY SHOW GREAT CONCERN AT SYRIAN TROOP MOVEMENTS (SEPTEL). IN ADDITION, THE CHRISTIAN DECISION MOVEMENT (CDM) EMERGENCY COUNCIL STATED ON MARCH 16, FOR THE THIRD CONSECUTIVE DAY, ITS AVERSION TO THE USE OF FORCE AND ITS PREFERENCE FOR A POLITICAL ROLE. IT ALSO DECLARED ITS WILLINGNESS TO OPEN CONTACTS WITH THE SYRIANS AND ALL OTHER CONCERNED PARTIES. COMMAND COUNCIL MEMBER KARIM PAKRADOUNI HAS NOW HAD TWO CONVERSATIONS WITH SYRIAN FIRST VP KHADDAM IN WHICH HE DENIED ANY CDM TIES TO ISRAEL. THE MOVEMENT SEEMS TO BE MAKING THE MAXIMUM EFFORT TO ALLEVIATE SYRIAN CONCERNS. ¶5. IN RESPONSE TO PM KARAMI'S MARCH 15 BLAST AT THE DISSIDENTS (SEPTEL),THE JA'JA' FORCES HAVE PROPOSED THE FORMATION OF A CHRISTIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL TO SERVE AS A FORUM FOR UNIQUELY CHRISTIAN VOICES. THIS IS AN IDEA WHICH HAS BEEN DUSTED OFF AT INTERVALS SINCE 1981. ONLY TIME WILL TELL IF IT IS ONCE AGAIN A NON-STARTER. ¶6. THE SITUATION ON THE GROUND REMAINS TENSE BUT QUIET. TRAFFIC CONTINUES UNIMPEDED ALONG THE COASTAL HIGHWAY FROM BEIRUT AS FAR NORTH AS MADFOUN. AT MADFOUN, HOWEVER, WHILE NORTH- BOUND TRAFFIC IS PERMITTED THROUGH, TRAFFIC FROM TRIPOLI SOUTH TOWARD BEIRUT IS HALTED AND TURNED BACK. BARTHOLOMEW