HIZBALLAH ON THE MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIRUT 01014

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PINT LE
SUBJECT: HIZBALLAH ON THE MOVE


1. C-ENTIRE TEXT.


2. BEGIN SUMMARY: SOME WEEKS AGO, IN A MESSAGE ON
POTENTIAL NEW HIZBALLAH TACTICS IN THE WAKE OF THE
JENCO KIDNAPPING AND THE MURDER OF TWO FRENCH MILITARY
OBSERVERS, EMBASSY BEIRUT SPECULATED THAT HIZBALLAH IS
BEGINNING TO SHIFT TOWARD A MORE PUBLIC, VISIBLE STANCE,
PARTLY BECAUSE WE THOUGHT THEY FELT STRONG ENOUGH. WE
NOW HAVE MORE EVIDENCE OF THIS. FIRST, ON FEBRUARY 16
HIZBALLAH ISSUED ITS FIRST PUBLIC PROGRAMMATIC MANIFESTO
(BEIRUT 1013),INTER ALIA, CALLING FOR THE DEPARTURE OF
THE US, FRANCE AND THEIR ALLIES FROM LEBANON AND THE
ESTABLISHMENT OF AN ISLAMIC REGIME. SECOND, ON
FEBRUARY 18, ARMED HIZBALLAH DEMONSTRATORS, VARIOUSLY
NUMBERED AT 1500-12,000, WERE BUSSED TO SIDON FROM BEIRUT
AND CONTROLLED THE CITY'S STREETS FOR A DAY AS ARMY
STOOD BY. THIS WAS AN OMINOUS DEMONSTRATION OF STRENGTH
AND WILL AND ABILITY TO ACT THAT WILL SHARPEN EXISTING
BATTLE LINES AND TENSIONS IN LEBANON. END SUMMARY.


3. BUSLOADS OF HEAVILY ARMED HIZBALLAH DEMONSTRATORS,
BOTH MEN AND WOMEN AND ESTIMATED BY WESTERN NEWS AGENCIES
TO NUMBER 1500-12,000, DROVE FROM BEIRUT TO SIDON ON
FEBRUARY 18 TO MARCH THROUGH CITY STREETS, BURNING THE
LEBANESE FLAG AND SHOUTING SLOGANS AGAINST PRESIDENT
GEMAYEL. SOME 20 SHOPS SELLING ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
WERE SACKED. AS SIDON RESIDENTS AND LAF TROOPS LOOKED
ON WITHOUT INTERVENING, DEMONSTRATORS ARMED WITH AK-47S
AND ROCKET-PROPELLED GRENADES RALLIED IN CITY SQUARES,
SHOUTING SLOGANS SUCH AS "DEATH TO GEMAYEL," "SIDON IS
MUSLIM AND CANNOT BE RULED BY A MARONITE," AND "GEMAYEL
IS AN AGENT." DEMONSTRATORS WAVED IRANIAN AND HIZBALLAH
FLAGS AND CARRIED PICTURES OF AYATOLLAH KHOMEINI. A
SMALLER GROUP OF AMAL MEMBERS CONDUCTED THEIR OWN
DEMONSTRATION SEPARATE FROM THAT OF HIZBALLAH. (AMAL
LATER ISSUED A STATEMENT DENOUNCING THE HIZBALLAH RALLIES
AND CONDEMNING THE VIOLENCE.)


4. ACCORDING TO PRESS REPORTS, AT THE ARMY CHECKPOINT AT
KHALDE, LAF TROOPS CHEERED AND WAVED THE BUS CONVOY
THROUGH, WHILE PSP MILITIAMEN FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
WELCOMED IT.


5. IN AN INTERVIEW WITH THE DAILY STAR, SIDON DEPUTY
NAZIH BIZRI, A SUNNI, EXPRESSED DISMAY THAT THE
MILITIAMEN IGNORED THE AGREEMENT REACHED BY SIDON'S
LEADERS NOT TO ALLOW THE BEARING OF ARMS IN THE CITY. HE
SAID THAT THE PEOPLE OF SIDON WERE CROSS AND ANGRY, BUT
THAT THE INCIDENT WILL NOT SPOIL THE UNITY OF THE CITY.
HE SAID THAT THE ARMY DID NOT INTERVENE IN ORDER NOT TO
PROVOKE A CLASH. ON MONDAY, A GROUP OF SIDON SUNNI
NOTABLES ISSUED A COMMUNIQUE CONDEMNING MONDAY'S "ARMED
AND MASSIVE" DEMONSTRATION. "WE WILL NOT ALLOW ANYONE,
REGARDLESS OF FACTION, TO VIOLATE THE DECISION TO BAN
ARMS FROM THE LIBERATED CITY, OTHER THAN THOSE OF THE
ARMY AND THE ISF."


6. COMMENT: THE FEBRUARY 16 MANIFESTO AND MONDAY'S
DEMONSTRATION MARK A NEW STEP BY HIZBALLAH TOWARDS BE-
COMING AN ACTIVE POLITICAL MOVEMENT OVERTLY DECLARING
AND PURSUING ITS GOAL OF THE ISLAMICIZATION OF LEBANON.
AT A MINIMUM, THIS MEANS THAT THE TENSIONS AND BATTLE
LINES AMONG COMPETING FORCES IN LEBANON WILL BE MUCH
MORE SHARPLY DRAWN:


A. WITHIN THE SHIA COMMUNITY. THE MONDAY DEMONSTRATIONS
PROVIDED GRAPHIC EVIDENCE OF AMAL-HIZBALLAH RIVALRY.
PRESS REPORTS SPOKE OF EVIDENT DISPLEASURE ON THE PART
OF AMAL DEMONSTRATORS, WHILE AMAL'S LATER DENUNCIATION
OF THE DEMONSTRATION IS THE FIRST EXPLICIT DISAPPROVAL OF
THIS TYPE THAT WE CAN RECALL. MOREOVER, HIZBALLAH HAS
CLEARLY MARKED OUT ITS FUTURE POLITICAL IDENTITY IN
LEBANON--IN THE SIDON RALLIES, ITS SLOGANS SUPPORTING
AN ISLAMIC REPUBLIC TOOK PRIDE OF PLACE OVER AMAL'S
CALLS FOR THROWING THE ISRAELIS OUT OF THE SOUTH.


B. SUNNI-SHIA. HIZBALLAH'S RALLY IN THE VERY HEART
OF THE SUNNI CAPITAL OF THE SOUTH RECALLS THE WORST FEARS
OF THE SUNNIS, AS EVIDENCED BY THEIR COMMUNIQUE. IN
FURTHER SUNNI REACTION, A DELEGATION FROM THE SUNNI
CHARITABLE ORGANIZATION MAQASSAD (WHICH IS HEADED BY
SAIB SALAM'S SON TAMAM) IS TRAVELLING TO SIDON ON
TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF REPORTS THAT A PTT EMPLOYEE HAS
BEEN KILLED BY ARMED MEN NEWLY APPEARING ON CITY STREETS.


C. THE CHRISTIAN COMMUNITY. THE MONDAY DEMONSTRATIONS
WILL ALSO EVOKE THE WORST FEARS OF THE CHRISTIAN
COMMUNITY, FURTHER PROVOKING A DEFENSIVE, SEIGE
MENTALITY AND PUTTING MORE OBSTACLES IN THE WAY OF THE
POLITICAL PROCESS. WE ARE STRUCK, FOR EXAMPLE, BY
HIZBALLAH'S SINGLING OUT THE PHALANGE IN ITS WEEKEND
COMMUNIQUE AND BY ITS ATTACKS ON GEMAYEL. THIS,
TOGETHER WITH JUMBLATT'S HEATED RHETORIC AGAINST THE
REGIME AND MIMICKING OF THE ISLAMIC CAUSE OVER THE
WEEKEND (BEIRUT 0993),WILL HARDLY ENCOURAGE ANY
CHRISTIAN TENDENCIES TOWARD FLEXIBILITY.

D. SECURITY AND THE ROLE OF THE ARMY. THE LIMP
AND EVEN HARMFUL PERFORMANCE OF THE ARMY ON MONDAY HAS
ABRUPTLY NULLIFIED THE EUPHORIA OF THE SIDON CITIZENRY
AS A RESULT OF THE LAF'S TRIUMPHAL ENTRY INTO THE CITY
ON SATURDAY. PRECISELY WHEN IT WAS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ORDER AND TO SUPPORT SIDON NOTABLES' CALLS FOR
"DISARMAMENT," THE LAF FAILED ITS FIRST, AND PERHAPS
MOST CRUCIAL, TEST.


7. IN ONE SENSE, IT CAN BE ARGUED THAT THE MORE
HIZBALLAH COMES OUT OF THE WOODWORK AND BATTLE LINES
ARE DRAWN, THE BETTER THE SITUATION IS IN TERMS OF
GALVANIZING BARRI (WHOM WE HAVE BEEN WARNING ON THIS
VERY TOPIC FOR SOME TIME) AND THE SUNNIS, AT LEAST
IN SIDON. ONE THING IS CLEAR: FEW LEBANESE OF ANY
COMMUNITY OR PERSUASION WANT TO LIVE IN AN ISLAMIC
REPUBLIC. (THE BULK OF THE SHIA DO NOT FOLLOW THIS LINE
YET, ALTHOUGH IT MAY HAVE CONSIDERABLE LATENT STRENGTH.)
IN ANY EVENT, ON THIS POINT, THERE IS A TIE THAT BINDS
THE GREAT MAJORITY OF MUSLIMS TO THE GREAT MAJORITY
OF CHRISTIANS. ACCORDINGLY, IT SHOULD BE POSSIBLE TO
FIND A BASIS FOR CHRISTIAN-MUSLIM COOPERATION IN MEETING
A THREAT TO ALL OF THEM WHICH IS GREATER THAN ANY
DIFFERENCES THAT MAY SEPARATE THEM. THEN AGAIN, THIS
IS LEBANON. IN ANY CASE, WE WILL BE CLOSELY TRACKING
THE REACTION TO THE SIDON DEMONSTRATIONS, PARTICULARLY
ON THE PART OF THE MODERATE SHIAS.

BARTHOLOMEW