ALEXANDRIA: A "DEEPLY DIVIDED" CITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 ALEXANDRIA 00817

PLEASE PASS USAID

E.O. 12356: DECL: OADR
TAGS: PGOV PINR EG
SUBJECT: ALEXANDRIA: A "DEEPLY DIVIDED" CITY

REFS: (A) ALEXANDRIA 435
- (B) ALEXANDRIA 535
- (C) ALEXANDRIA 771


1. (CONFIDENTIAL - ENTIRE TEXT.)


2. SUMMARY. THE JULY 2 PRESENTATION, TO THE PEOPLES
ASSEMBLY, OF THE PARLIAMENTARY INVESTIGATIVE REPORT
ON ALEXANDRIA GOVERNOR FAWZI MA'AZ'S CONDUCT OF OFFICE
DID NOT STOP THE DEBATE. INDEED, NEW CHARGES AND
COUNTER-CHARGES HAVE EMERGED DURING THE SUMMER
WHICH INDICATE THAT THIS ISSUE IS FAR FROM DEAD.
IN RESPONSE TO HIS TROUBLES, THE GOVERNOR HAD
REMOVED TWO OF ALEXANDRIA'S TOP POLITICAL OFFICIALS,
LEAVING THE CITY WITH AN EMBATTLED GOVERNOR AND TWO
NEWCOMERS TO COPE WITH ALEXANDRIA'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS.
HE HAS ALSO SUED WAFD PARTY AND NEWSPAPER LEADERSHIP
FOR LIBEL. WHILE THERE AREN'T TOO MANY HEROES IN THIS
STORY, THE EMERGING POLITICAL ROLE OF MINISTER OF
AGRICULTURE, YOUSSEF WALLY, IS WORTH NOTING. END
SUMMARY.
-
-

3. POLITICS, THIS SUMMER, IN THE VERY POLITICAL
CITY OF ALEXANDRIA, HAVE REVOLVED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY
AROUND THE PROBLEMS OF GOVERNOR FAWZI MA'AZ
(REFS A AND B). WHILE THE GOE APPARENTLY ELECTED
TO CUBBY-HOLE THE REPORT PRODUCED BY THE PARLIAMENTARY
INVESTIGATIVE COMMITTEE (REF A),THIS WAS NOT ACHIEVED
WITHOUT A SOMEWHAT TUMULTUOUS LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT--
AND AT LEAST SOME DAMAGE, WE HEAR, TO THE REPUTATION
OF PEOPLES ASSEMBLY SPEAKER, RIFAAT AL MAHGOUB.
ALTHOUGH NO PUBLISHED ACCOUNT TELLS US WHAT HAPPENED
TO THE REPORT (SOME BELIEVE IT WAS REFERRED TO THE
MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT; OTHERS THINK THE REPORT,
AND ADDITIONAL SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS, WENT TO THE
SOCIALIST PROSECUTOR),THE GOVERNMENT IS PERCEIVED
AS HAVING TAKEN NO ACTION IN THE MA'AZ CASE, AND
ATTACKS IN THE WEEKLY "WAFD" HAVE CONTINUED UNABATED.
THE GOVERNOR HAS ENMESHED HIMSELF FURTHER BY GIVING
INTERVIEWS WHICH, FAR FROM EXONERATING HIM, HAVE NOT
ONLY KEPT THE DEBATE ALIVE, BUT PROVIDED NEW
AMMUNITION FOR CHARGES AND COUNTER-CHARGES.

-- NEAR THE END OF THE SUMMER, AND BECAUSE OF PERCEIVED
WRONG ACTIONS ON THE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT, THE
SEWAGE DEBATE HAS RESURFACED, BOTH IN ALEXANDRIA AND
IN THE COLUMNS OF ALL NATIONAL DAILIES. THIS PROUD
CITY IS NOT ONLY BEING HELD UP TO NATIONAL RIDICULE,
BUT THE APPARENT DRIFT AND INDECISIVENESS--ON BOTH THE
MA'AZ CASE AND THE SEWAGE OUTFALL QUESTION--HAVE LEFT
BOTH OBSERVERS AND PARTICIPANTS WITH THE IMPRESSION
OF "A WEAK GOVERNMENT"--IN THE WORDS OF ONE OF MA'AZ'S
FELLOW GOVERNORS.


4. THE LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT: BY ALL ACCOUNT, THE
LAST DAY OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, JULY 2, WAS A LIVELY
OR "MELODRAMATIC" (IN THE WORDS OF "AL SHAAB" JULY 9)
OCCASION. THE 41-PAGE REPORT ON GOVERNOR MA'AZ
WAS DISTRIBUTED TO MEMBERS ONLY THAT MORNING. TWO
NDP AND TWO WAFD MEMBERS WERE ALLOWED BRIEFLY TO DISCUSS
THE SANITIZED (ACCORDING TO THE "WAFD," JULY 18) REPORT.
THE LAST SESSION OF PARLIAMENT, HEAVILY MANAGED
BY SPEAKER RIFAAT AL MAGHOUB, LASTED ONLY TWO HOURS
AND 20 MINUTES AND SAW THE PASSAGE OF 6 NEW LAWS
AND THE APPROVAL OF 14 REPORTS. THE MOST CONTROVERSIAL
ITEM WAS NOT EVEN ON THE AGENDA: AT THE REQUEST GOVERNOR
MA'AZ, THE NDP MOVED TO LIFT THE PARLIAMENTARY
IMMUNITY OF "WAFD" EDITOR, AND PA MEMBER FOR PORT SAID,
MOUSTAPHA SHERDY. IN ALEXANDRIA, WE UNDERSTAND
THAT GOVERNOR MA'AZ HOSTED AN INFORMAL RECEPTION
IN HIS OFFICE THAT DAY TO CELEBRATE THE EVENTS
THAT HAD TAKEN PLACE IN CAIRO. COMMENT: ANOTHER
LOCAL ECHO OF CAIRO'S DRAMATIC EVENTS WAS THAT
MA'AZ SENT HIS SECRETARY TO THE CONSULATE GENERAL
THAT DAY TO PROCURE A VISA FOR HIS SON: "HE PROBABLY
IS ASKING FOR THIS NOW, BECAUSE HE WON'T BE AROUND
MUCH LONGER," COMMENTED HIS SECRETARY. END COMMENT.


5. LIFTING SHERDY'S PARLIAMENTARY IMMUNITY: BY
MOST ACCOUNTS, INCLUDING NDP, THE SUCCESSFUL ACTION
TO LIFT SHERDY'S IMMUNITY (PROPOSED BY MA'AZ DEFENDER
FAROUK GARANA, SEE PARA 7),WAS EXTRA-PARLIAMENTARY.
IT PROVOKED A WAFD BOYCOTT OF PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S
TRADITIONAL TEA ON THE LAST DAY OF PARLIAMENT, A
ONE DAY RESIGNATION FROM THE WAFD LEADERSHIP BY
FOUAD SERAG EL DIN, AND A FIRESTORM IN NATIONAL
PRESS, MOST NOTABLY IN THE "WAFD," WHICH INTER ALIA,
CHALLENGED THE GOE TO SHOW ON TELEVISION THE
COMPLETE FOOTAGE OF THE LAST DAY OF THE PEOPLES
ASSEMBLY (A CHALLENGE NOT YET TAKEN UP). AN
UNREPENTANT SHERDY HELD FORTH IN A PAGE ONE EDITORIAL
IN THE JULY 11 EDITION OF THE "WAFD," DECRYING
MAGHOUB'S MANAGEMENT OF THE PEOPLES ASSEMBLY AND
ATTACKING THE SPEAKER IN STRONG LANGUAGE: "THE DOG
AT THE CENTER OF POWER... KNOWS HE IS NOTHING BUT
A MERE CORPSE SITTING IN THE (SPEAKER'S) CHAIR... WHOSE
PEN DISCHARGES NOTHING BUT PUS. I WOULD LIKE TO TELL
HIM THAT MY FEELING TOWARDS HIM NOW IS THE FEELING OF
PITY." THE SAME EDITORIAL ALSO (AND FINALLY) GOT TO
THE HEART OF WAFD CHARGES AGAINST MA'AZ: "MA'AZ SHOULD
NOT SLIP AWAY FROM PUNISHMENT (BUT) MA'AZ IS NOT
THE ONLY PROBLEM. THE BIG PROBLEM IS THE PROBLEM OF
CORRUPTION IN EGYPT. THE 'WAFD' BELIEVES DEEPLY
THAT THE CAMPAIGN WE ARE STARTING IN ALEXANDRIA
SHOULD TEACH THE REST (OF THE COUNTRY) A GOOD LESSON."
COUNTER-ATTACKING FOR THE GOVERNMENT, MOUSSA SABRY
(AL AKHBAR, JULY 14)WROTE A PAEAN OF PRAISE FOR
MA'AZ, REMINDED HIS READERS THAT SHERDY LIVED
"IN THE GULF COUNTRIES FOR 12 YEARS," AND ACCUSED
SHERDY OF THINKING THAT "THE PEN IS A CLEAVER IN THE
HAND OF A BUTCHER." SABRY'S EDITORIAL WAS ENTITLED
"CHAOS." MA'AZ AND ALEXANDRIA'S LOCAL POPULAR
COUNCIL PRESIDENT, EZZAT KADDOUS (REF A) SUBSEQUENTLY
BROUGHT LIBEL SUITS AGAINST WAFD PARTY LEADER
FOUAD SERAG EL DIN, AND THREE "WAFD" NEWSPAPER
STAFFERS, SHERDY, BADAWI AND THE NEWSPAPER'S
CARTOONIST. WE UNDERSTAND THAT THE.FIRST SITTING
OF THE TRIAL WILL BE IN THE GIZA DISTRICT COURT
OCTOBER 8. BECAUSE SOME HARSH FEELINGS, REGARDING
THE JULY 2 SESSION OF THE PA, REMAIN, MOST
OBSERVERS BELIEVE THAT THE GOE WILL WANT TO COMPLETE
(OR OTHERWISE GET PAST) THIS LIBEL CASE BEFORE
PARLIAMENT RECONVENES IN NOVEMBER.


6. MA'AZ, "ATTEMPTING TO SAVE HIMSELF": MA'AZ
SPENT THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH OF JULY GIVING
INTERVIEWS IN GOE-SPONSORED DAILIES AND MASS-
CIRCULATION MAGAZINES ATTEMPTING TO EXCULPATE
HIMSELF FROM THE CORRUPTION CHARGES: THE THRUST
OF THE ATTACKS AGAINST HIM HAD MOVED FROM POOR
MANAGEMENT CHOICES REGARDING DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS
(REF A) TO PROFITEERING ON LAND DEALS. AFTER
THREE TIMES, IN THE COURSE OF THESE INTERVIEWS,
ATTEMPTING TO SHIFT BLAME TO A FORMER GOVERNOR
FOR PROFITEERING ON BEDOUIN LAND IN THE BEACH
RESORT AREA OF AGAMI, THE SON OF KAMAL EL DIB
(GOVERNOR OF ALEXANDRIA UNDER NASSER AND SADAT)
STRUCK BACK. THE GOE-SPONSORED PRESS DECLINED
TO PUBLISH HIS STATEMENT, BUT ON AUGUST 28, THE
"WAFD" CARRIED A BANNER HEADLINE STORY, WHICH
INCLUDED A PHOTOCOPY OF A DEED SIGNED BY MA'AZ.
COMMENT: MOUFID EL DIB, THE SON OF THE FORMER
GOVERNOR, TOLD US THAT HE IGNORED THE FIRST MA'AZ
CHARGE, BUT AS THE GOVERNOR EMBELLISHED THE STORY
THROUGHOUT THE S, HE FELT THAT HIS DECEASED
FATHER'S HONOR, INDEED THAT OF THE WHOLE FAMILY,
WAS AT STAKE. HE ALSO TOLD US THAT THE GOE OFFICIAL
IN CHARGE OF "STATE" (BEDOUIN) LAND IN AGAMI
(THROUGH WHO MA'AZ CONDUCTED HIS LAND DEALS) WAS
RECENTLY REMOVED FROM HIS POST. TO GIVE AN IDEA
OF THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PROFITEERING, EL DIB
REPORTED THAT MA'AZ (WHILE STILL A POLICE OFFICER)
HAD PAID THE STATE 173 PIASTERS PER SQUARE METER
FOR THE LAND, BUT THAT EL DIB--NOT HIS FATHER--
HAD BOUGHT IT FROM MA'AZ AT LE 200 PER SQUARE
METER. END COMMENT. WHILE SPEAKING PUBLICLY
ABOUT THE CHARGES AGAINST HIM, MA'AZ MOVED QUIETLY
BEHIND THE SCENES TO RID HIMSELF OF TWO OF
ALEXANDRIA'S POLITICAL BARONS--MEN WHOM HE
BELIEVED, ACCORDING TO OUR CONTACTS, HAD NOT
SUPPORTED HIM SUFFICIENTLY IN HIS TIME OF NEED.
IN SO DOING, HE HAS REMOVED FROM THE LOCAL SCENE
TWO OF THE MOST DYNAMIC, WELL-KNOWN NATIONALLY,
AND (BY MOST ACCOUNTS) EFFECTIVE, POLITICAL
LEADERS IN ALEXANDRIA: ALEXANDRIA$S SECRETARY
GENERAL (NUMBER TWO PERSON IN THE GOVERNORATE
AFTER MA'AZ HIMSELF),SHAKER ABDEL SALAAM, AND
LOCAL NDP PARTY HEAD, MOHAMED ABDELLAH.


7. NDP PARTY LEADERSHIP: A SMALL PAGE ONE
ANNOUNCEMENT, IN "AL AHRAM" AUGUST 12, INFORMED
READERS THAT MAHMOUD DAOUD, HEAD OF EGYPT'S
COTTON BOARD AND MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE UNDER
SADAT, HAD REPLACED MOHAMED ABDELLAH AS NDP
PARTY CHIEF IN ALEXANDRIA. WHILE THE BUSY ABDELLAH,
CHAIRMAN OF THE PA FOREIGN RELATIONS COMMITTEE,
AND PARLIAMENTARY DELEGATION LEADER FOR ALEXANDRIA,
HAD FOUR TIMES ATTEMPTED TO SUBMIT HIS RESIGNATION
FROM THE ALEX PARTY POST, HE WAS ACTUALLY FIRED
BY SOBHI ABDEL HAKIM, SHURA COUNCIL SPEAKER AND
SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE NDP. AT (WE ARE TOLD)
MA'AZ'S INSTIGATION, A TEN-PERSON DELEGATION
COMPRISED OF PA AND SHURA COUNCIL MEMBERS FROM
ALEXANDRIA, AND LED BY PA MEMBER (AND MA'AZ ALLY)
FAROUK GARANA, SOUGHT A MEETING WITH SOBHI TO
COMPLAIN ABOUT ABDELLAH'S NUMEROUS ABSENCES FROM
ALEXANDRIA, AND PARTY DRIFT HERE. MUCH OF THE
SESSION HARKED BACK TO THE TUMULTUOUS MEETING AT
NDP ALEX HEADQUARTERS IN APRIL (REF A). ABDELLAH,
IN TRUE ALEXANDRIAN FAS MANAGED TO HAVE
SEVERAL SUPPORTERS INCLUDED IN THE DELEGATION--WHO
SOUGHT TO EXPLAIN THE STEPS ABDELLAH HAD TAKEN SINCE
THAT TIME TO HEAL PARTY WOUNDS, AND MA'AZ'S
REFUSAL TO COOPERATE WITH ABDELLAH. THE FACT OF
ABDELLAH'S FREQUENT ABSENCES FROM ALEXANDRIA,
HOWEVER, COULD NOT BE DISPUTED, AS HE HAD JUST
RETURNED FROM PA TRIPS TO BOTH THE PRC AND THE
USSR (REF C). ABDELLAH MAINTAINS HE WAS CONSULTED
ON HIS OWN OUSTER AND WAS GIVEN THE COURTESY OF
A PRIORI VETOES ON THREE POSSIBLE SUCCESSORS
(NOTABLY, GARANA). MOST ACCOUNTS HOLD THAT IT
WAS ACTUALLY YOUSSEF WALLY, GOE MINISTER OF
AGRICULTURE AND ASSISTANT SECRETARY GENERAL OF
THE NDP, WHO SUGGESTED DAOUD AS THE NEW PARTY
LEADER FOR ALEXANDRIA--NOT ABDELLAH, AS ABDELLAH
NOW TRIES TO CLAIM. ACCORDING TO DAOUD, HIS
COURTESY CALL ON NDP CHAIRMAN, PRESIDENT MUBARAK,
REVOLVED LESS AROUND ALEXANDRIA'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS,
THAN AROUND MUBARAK'S HORTATORY (AND SOMEWHAT
MISPLACED, GIVEN THE MOODS IN ALEXANDRIA) COMMENTS
TO DAOUD TO BREATHE LIFE BACK INTO THE PRIVATE
SECTOR IN ALEXANDRIA. AT DINNER THE WEEK OF
HIS SELECTION, THE SOMEWHAT ELDERLY DAOUD
ACKNOWLEDGED THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS HE FACES
HERE, AND SAID HIS FIRST PRIORITY MUST BE TO HEAL
THE WOUNDS IN THIS "DEEPLY DIVIDED CITY."


8. THE SECRETARY GENERALSHIP: THE FORMER
CLOSENESS OF FAWZI MA'AZ AND SHAKER ABDEL SALAAM
(BOTH POLICE GENERALS) CANNOT BE EXAGGERATED.
THEY APPEARED EVERYWHERE TOGETHER AND ALL THE
CITY'S PROBLEMS WERE ADDRESSED, IN A FASHION, BY
MA'AZ NAMING SHAKER TO HEAD A"STUDY COMMITTEE."
SHAKER EVEN GAINED NATIONAL PROMINENCE AS HEAD
OF THE COORDINATING COMMITTEE FOR USAID'S SUCCESSFUL
NEIGHBORHOOD URBAN SERVICES (NUS) PROJECT IN THE
THREE URBAN GOVERNORATES OF CAIRO, GIZA AND
ALEXANDRIA. SHAKER'S DOOR AT THE GOVERNORATE
WAS ALWAYS OPEN TO CALLERS, WHEREAS THE ALOOF
MA'AZ HOLDS ONLY TST PERFUNCTORY (AND
GENERALLY NON-SUBSTANTIVE) COURTESY SESSIONS
WITH VISITORS. WE HAD EARLIER SPECULATED ON (WHAT
WAS VIEWED LOCALLY AS) THE NEAR MIRACLE THAT
SHAKER'S NAME WAS NEVER ASSOCIATED WITH THAT OF
MA'AZ IN THE NUMEROUS "WAFD" ARTICLES, ALTHOUGH
SHAKER WAS PERCEIVED LOCALLY AS HEAVILY INVOLVED
IN PRIVATE BUSINESS DEALS, WHEREAS MA'AZ (UNTIL
RECENTLY) WAS NOT. WE ALSO RECEIVED INFORMATION
FROM VARIOUS ALEXANDRIANS THAT SHAKER WAS QUIETLY
BETRAYING THE GOVERNOR, IN AN ATTEMPT TO SAVE
HIMSELF; THESE SAME SOURCES REPORTED THAT THEY
HAD TOLD THE GOVERNOR THE SAME THING. ALTHOUGH
THE ACTUAL CAUSE FOR SHAKER'S SUDDEN TRANSFER TO
THE MINISTRY OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN CAIRO REMAINS
UNKNOWN, IT IS CLEAR THAT HE WAS PUT OUT TO
PASTURE BY MINISTER OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT (AND
ANOTHER FORMER POLICE GENERAL) ABU BASHA--AT THE
REQUEST OF MA'AZ. ALLEGEDLY FURIOUS AT HIS
TRANSFER TO THE NON-POSITION OF "SPECIAL ASSISTANT
TO THE MINISTER," SHAKER REPORTEDLY HAS RESIGNED
FROM THE GOVERNMENT. COMMENT: MA'AZ APPEARS DETERMINED
TO KEEP UP APPEARANCES IN THE MIDST OF THIS
TURMOIL: IN A MEETING WITH VISITING USG
OFFICIALS AUGUST 21, MA'AZ POINTEDLY TOLD US
THAT SHAKER HAD RECEIVED A "BIG PROMOTION."
THE SAME DAY, THE GOVERNOR LED THE DELEGATION
TO THE FUNERAL IN ALEXANDRIA OF SHAKER'S MOTHER.
END COMMENT. ACCORDING TO ABDELLAH, A DISHEARTENED,
AND INCREASINGLY ISOLATED, MA'AZ TOLD THE MINISTER
TO "NAME ANYONE" TO REPLACE SHAKER--A HIGHLY
UNUSUAL POSITION FOR ANY SENIOR MANAGER REGARDING
THE SELECTION OF HIS DEPUTY. BUT, THAT IS WHAT
THE MINISTER DID: FAYEZ OSMAN, FORMER HEAD OF THE
EASTERN ALEXANDRIA DISTRICT, IS ALEXANDRIA'S
NEW SECRETARY GENERAL. A FORMER ARMY OFFICER
WHO LOST HIS RIGHT HAND IN THE 1956 WAR, THE
CONGENIAL AND LOW-KEY OSMAN IS DUE FOR RETIREMENT
IN A YEAR OR SO. THIS LEAVES THIS TROUBLED CITY
WITH AN EMBATTLED AND ISOLATED GOVERNOR, A
CARETAKER SECRETARY-GENERAL--AND A POLITICALLY
AWARE LOCAL POPULATION DRAWING UNFORTUNATE CONCLUSIONS
ABOUT ITS CENTRAL NMENT.


9. "MASSIVE" POLICE TRANSFERS: WHILE EVERYONE
LOCALLY ASSOCIATES THE EARLY AUGUST TRANSFER OUT
OF ALEXANDRIA OF 132 POLICE OFFICERS ("THE
LARGEST SHAKEUP IN POLICE ANNALS" ACCORDING TO
THE "WAFD," AUGUST 22, AND CONFIRMED BY LOCAL
SOURCES) WITH THE GOVERNOR'S PROBLEMS, WE HAVE
BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH ANY DIRECT LINK--OTHER
THAN THE OBVIOUS ONE THAT, AS A RESPECTED FORMER
POLICE GENERAL, MA'AZ MUST HAVE BEEN CONSULTED.
HOWEVER, RUMORS ALSO ABOUND THAT HIS CLOSEST
ALLIES IN THE POLICE FORCE WERE AMONG THOSE
TRANSFERRED. A GOVERNOR OF ANOTHER DELTA
GOVERNORATE HAS EVEN MADE THE PRIVATE SUGGESTION
THAT THE ACTIVIST MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR, AHMED
ROUCHDY, WAS PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION ON "THE
MESS IN ALEXANDRIA," EVEN IF THE MINISTER OF LOCAL
GOVERNMENT, ABU BASHA, WAS (OR COULD) NOT. A
FINAL TWIST TO THE SPECULATION IS THAT THE MOI
WAS UNHAPPY WITH HOW THE SECURITY FORCES IN
ALEXANDRIA WERE COPING WITH THE FUNDAMENTALISTS'
CHALLENGE HERE (SEE ALEX 546 AND 587). COMMENT:
WE EARLIER REPORTED ON THE REMARKABLE DIFFERENCE IN
BEHAVIOR OF BOTH THE FUNDAMENTALISTS AND THE
SECURITY FORCES AT THE RECENT KURBAN BAIRAM, AS
COMPARED TO THE RAMADAN BAIRAM (ALEX 799).
END COMMENT.


10. HOW MUCH LONGER WILL MA'AZ REMAIN? WHILE
THERE ARE SOME LOCAL NOTABLES WHO CONTINUE TO
DEFEND MA'AZ (USUALLY HARKING BACK TO HIS
ACKNOWLEDGED EXCELLENCE AS A POLICE GENERAL),
THERE IS A GENERALIZED LOCAL SENTIMENT THAT HE
MUST GO: HE HAS BEEN TOO DEBASED BY THE MONTHS-
LONG CAMPAIGN IN THE "WAFD" (ON WHICH THE GOE
HAS BEEN PUBLICLY SILENT) AND PERCEIVED INACTION
ON THE CITY'S MOUNTING PROBLEMS (LED BY GARBAGE
AND SEWAGE QUESTIONS),TO BE ABLE TO LEAD THIS
RATHER RAMBUNCTIOUS CITY. PRESIDENT MUBARAK'S
POSITION ON THE MA'AZ TROUBLES REMAINS SOMEWHAT
OPAQUE: WHILE WE HAVE HAD REPORTS (REF B) THAT
HE INTENDS TO LET THE GO TO TRIAL, HIS
REMARKS EARLIER THIS SUMMER TO THE AMBASSADOR
TENDED TO INDICATE THAT HE CONTINUES TO HAVE
CONFIDENCE IN MA'AZ. SINCE THAT TIME, HOWEVER,
NEW CHARGES HAVE EMERGED (SUCH AS IN PARA 6),PLUS--
AND IMPORTANTLY-- THE PRESIDENT HAS SPENT THE
SUMMER IN ALEXANDRIA. WHILE HE HAS NOT BEEN
SEEN SOCIALLY, MRS. MUBARAK HAS BEEN VISIBLE AT
(AND KNOWN TO HAVE COMPLAINED ABOUT) THE CITY'S
BEACHES, AND IN AGAMI. AT THIS POINT, DECENCY
WOULD SEEM TO REQUIRE THAT MA'AZ BE PERMITTED HIS
DAY IN COURT (PARA 4),BUT WE SUSPECT THAT HE WILL
BE REMOVED BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR, PROBABLY
IN A CAMOUFLAGED TRANSFER OF SEVERAL GOVERNORS.
IF HE IS NOT, THE GOE, AND SPECIFICALLY PRESIDENT
MUBARAK, WILL FACE INCREASING CHARGES OF NEGLIGENCE
OF EGYPT'S SECOND CITY, AND LOUDER COMPLAINTS THAN
WHAT WE ARE ALREADY HEARING THAT MA'AZ IS BEING
PROTECTED BECAUSE HE IS FROM MENOUFIA (REF A),
AND HAS FAMILY TIES TO MUBARAK'S PRIVATE SECRETARY,
ZAKI.


11. A FEW (INTERIM) CONCLUSIONS:

-- WHILE TEMPERS ARE RISING HERE, PARTICULARLY IN
REGARD TO THE SEWAGE ISSUE, THE GOE HAS PROBABLY
DISCOUNTED SOME OF THE GRIPES AS THEY COME FROM
A CITY WHICH TRADITIONALLY IS ON DIFFICULT TERMS
WITH THE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT. NEVERTHELESS, THE
IMPRESSION OF WEAKNESS, OR NEGLIGENCE, OF THE
CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REMAINS. AND, ALEXANDRIA'S
PROBLEMS--FOLLOWING THE ANNUAL SUMMER SOJOURN
HERE OF THE POLITICAL AND JOURNALISTIC LEADERSHIP
OF CAIRO--CAN NO LONGER BE CALLED "LOCAL."
INDEED, ALEXANDRIA AND ITS PROBLEMS, HAVE BEEN
REPEATEDLY FEATURED IN THE COLUMNS THIS SUMMER
OF ALL THE NATIONAL DAILIES AND HAVE APPEARED, AS
WELL WE UNDERSTAND, IN THE INTERNATIONAL
ARABIC LANGUAGE MEDIA.

-- THE POLITICAL CHANGES WHICH HAVE OCCURRED
HERE (PARAS 7-8),PARTIALLY AS A RESULT OF THE
GOVERNOR'S PROBLEMS, HAVE BEEN NEGATIVE:
APPARENT WEAK MEN HAVE REPLACED STRONG, NATIONAL
FIGURES. WHILE DAOUD HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE
LEADER OF THE COTTON INDUSTRY, HE HAD A MIXED
REPUTATION AS MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE. LOCALLY,
HE IS KNS INTELLIGENT, BUT A HEAVY DRINKER,
AND SOMEONE POOR ENOUGH (UNLIKE ABDELLAH) TO BE
TEMPTED BY PATRONAGE HE WILL NOW CONTROL.
THE NEW SECRETARY GENERAL WILL LIKELY BE NON-CORRUPT,
BUT NOT DYNAMIC ENOUGH TO DEAL WITH THE CITY'S
MOUNTING PROBLEMS, WHILE MA'AZ CONCENTRATES ON
HIS LEGAL DEFENSES.

-- AS IS ITS WONT, THIS CITY HAS ALSO HAD AN
IMPACT ON THE REPUTATION OF SEVERAL NATIONAL
LEADERS. DUE NOT ONLY TO HIS MANAGEMENT OF THE
PEOPLES ASSEMBLY, BUT TO HIS PERSISTENT REPUTATION
LOCALLY AS A NASSERIST, RIFAAT AL MAGHOUB IS
VIEWED IN ALEXANDRIA AS ALMOST OUT OF THE RUNNING
TO REPLACE KAMAL HASSAN ALI AS PRIME MINISTER.
ON THE OTHER HAND, YOUSSEF WALLY, WHOSE ROLE
IN KING-MAKING IS KNOWN (IN ADDITION TO SELECTING
ABDELLAH'S REPLACEMENT, WALLY IS ALLEGED PERSONALLY
TO HAVE PICKED THE NEW GOVERNOR OF DAMIETTA, AS
WELL AS SEVERAL OF THE MINISTERS IN MUBARAK'S
CURRENT CABINET) AND HE IS NOW VIEWED LOCALLY AS
THE FRONT RUNNER AMONG THOSE LIKELY TO BECOME PM.
ADDITIONALLY, WALLY IS GENUINELY POPULAR IN THE
AGRICULTURAL DELTA. FINALLY, AS HEAD OF GOVERNMENT,
THE OTHERWISE POPULAR KAMAL HASSAN ALI, HAS NOT
EARNED ANY KUDOS HERE THIS SUMMER--EITHER FOR HIS
LACK OF ACTION ON THE MA'AZ CASE, OR FOR HIS MIS-
HANDLING OF THE CITY'S SEWAGE PROBLEMS. THAT TOPIC
WILL BE THE SUBJECT OF A SEPTEL ABOUT THE TROUBLED
SUMMER IN THIS CITY.


COOK