SERBIAN AMBASSADOR OUTLINES PLANS ON UPCOMING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000088 NOFORN SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO EUR/SCE AND PRM DAS ROBINSON; BELGRADE FOR REFCOORD; GENEVA FOR MULREAN AND PITOTTI E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2020 TAGS: PREF PREL UNHCR HR SR SUBJECT: SERBIAN AMBASSADOR OUTLINES PLANS ON UPCOMING VISITS AND ON REFUGEE MINISTERIAL REF: A. 09 ZAGREB 0746 ¶B. ZAGREB 0055 Classified By: Peter D'Amico, Pol Officer, for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Serbian Ambassador to Croatia says Belgrade is looking to improve relations with Zagreb. Planned parliamentary visits could help improve the dialogue. GoS is proposing March 25 for regional ministerial on refugees, but projects that agreement on better data regarding refugees may only be reached in six months. Ambassador Foley cautioned against trying to hold the ministerial before adequate preparations had been made. The US is willing to urge Croatia to be flexible in trying to meet people's humanitarian needs, but first there needs to be agreement on the numbers involved. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Serbian Ambassador to Croatia Stanimir Vukicevic on February 4 told the Ambassador that he spoke with President Tadic in December, and that the Serbian side was ready to get work to improve relations with Croatia. The election of and positive messages from President-elect Josipovic, with whom Tadic already has good relations, as well the pragmatic style of PM Kosor, meant that the GoS believed there was a good opportunity for both sides to move forward. Upcoming Visits ¶3. (C) As part of the effort to improve relations a Serbian "friends of Croatia" parliamentary delegation is scheduled to come to Zagreb on February 22 to meet with various officials. Vukicevic was also looking into having a Croatian parliamentary delegation visit Belgrade soon. In addition, the Serbian Speaker of the Parliament, Slavica Dejanovic, would be in Croatia on March 1 for a regional parliamentary meeting, and would seek appointments with Croatian leaders. Vukicevic was still looking to arrange a visit on the PM or presidential level in the near future. He did not, however, know who, if anyone, would represent the GoS at Josipovic's inauguration on February 18. ¶4. (C) The Ambassador agreed that it was high time for relations between Croatia and Serbia to improve and that the moment was indeed propitious. However, both sides needed to be willing to make hard decisions to find compromises. The Ambassador noted that the negotiations would be tough but that it would be easier if they were done in private and not via public statements such as took place over Tadic's potential attendance at the inauguration. GoS Plans on Refugee Ministerial ¶5. (C) Vukicevic noted that the GoS had recently officially proposed having a regional ministerial on refugee issues on March 25 in Belgrade (ref A) and that they were waiting for the GoC's response to that date, as well as to the agenda proposed by the Serbian side. The last working level conference in Zagreb in January had gone better than the previous one in Belgrade, and they had agreed to have an expert group work out more exact numbers on the refugees in question. Vukicevic said that the process of determining the new numbers would take about six months. The Ambassador questioned whether the timing of the ministerial meeting would be helpful in moving towards a solution since it would be extremely difficult for the ministers to reach any concrete decisions without having updated statistics on the size and characteristics of the refugee population. A ministerial that did not have sufficient preparatory work would achieve very little and might even set back efforts to address the refugees' humanitarian needs as well as harm efforts to improve bilateral relations. ¶6. (C) The Ambassador noted that while the GoC would not accept a legal obligation to compensate refugees who would not return to Croatia and avail themselves of the housing care program, the GoC had privately indicated a willingness to resolve outstanding refugee problems flexibly and pragmatically (ref B),and the USG was prepared to press Croatia in this regard. But finding a compromise would require agreement on the numbers, and likely quiet diplomacy outside the framework of a conference. Vukicevic stated that the two lead MFA negotiators had good personal relations and that perhaps they could hold private talks to seek common ground. The Ambassador thought this would be a good idea. He also suggested it would help if Belgrade could allay Croatian fears that Serbia was seeking to create a new benchmark on refugees for Croatia's EU accession process. ZAGREB 00000088 002 OF 002 FOLEY