PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSIPOVIC REVIEWS FOREIGN POLICY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000049

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SCE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT-ELECT JOSIPOVIC REVIEWS FOREIGN POLICY
PRIORITIES IN INITIAL MEETING WITH AMBASSADOR

Classified By: Vivian S. Walker, Deputy Chief of Mission, for reasons 1
.4 (b) & (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a January 21 meeting with Ambassador
Foley, Croatian president-elect Ivo Josipovic reviewed the
foreign policy priorities for his mandate. Beginning with an
affirmation of Croatia's excellent relationship with the US
as a NATO ally, Josipovic went on to express his appreciation
for the "good will" and friendship that has characterized the
"historic relationship" between the two countries. Among the
foreign policy issues that will shape the opening months of
his mandate, Josipovic highlighted Croatia's continued
cooperation with ICTY and regional issues, including
Croatia's relationship with Serbia and recent efforts to
improve bilateral relations, as well as the situation in
Bosnia. Josipovic acknowledged that all of these issues will
have an impact on what is arguably Croatia's most important
foreign policy objective, EU accession. Ambassador Foley
expressed US appreciation for Croatia's contribution to ISAF
and affirmed the USG's intention to support the security
relationship and look for ways to be helpful as Croatia
tackles the challenges of economic reform and improving its
business climate. End Summary.


2. (C) During an evening meeting on January 19 in the
president-elect's former campaign headquarters, Ambassador
Foley sat down with Josipovic to lay the foundation for a
working relationship, starting with a review of his key
foreign policy priorities. Josipovic had just met with a key
Croatian businessman and was on his way to a late evening
dinner before departing for Zadar early the next morning for
a working visit, returning to Zagreb for another round of
meetings over the weekend. Clearly Josipovic, who claims to
require very little sleep, is already in full transition
mode. Beginning the dialogue with an affirmation of
Croatia's excellent relationship with the US as a NATO ally,
Josipovic went on to express his appreciation for the "good
will" and friendship that has characterized the "historic
relationship" between the two countries.


3. (C) Ambassador Foley began by reinforcing the need for
Croatia's full and continued cooperation with the war crimes
tribunal in the Hague. Foley confirmed that the British are
now willing to acknowledge the progress the Croatians have
made recently in the effort to locate or otherwise explain
the absence of key documents requested by ICTY Special
Prosecutor Serge Brammertz. However, Foley warned Josipovic
that the Netherlands continues to share Brammertz's negative
assessment of Croatia's cooperation, and he urged Josipovic
to reach out personally to the Dutch leadership early on if
they continued to block the opening of Chapter 23 in
Croatia's EU accession process. Josipovic responded that as
a lawyer and a professor of law, he has had a "long
relationship" with the Hague. In fact, he noted that he had
been criticized in the 1990s for his cooperation with the
tribunal. However, he added, he was "not convinced of the
quality of the trials in the Hague," and was concerned that
"some indictees are still heroes" in their own countries.
Nevertheless, he felt strongly that the GoC had done
everything in its power to identify the missing documents and
said that it would be "illogical for Croatia to imperil its
future in Europe" by failing to cooperate fully with the ICTY
after having handed over General Gotovina for prosecution.
He then wondered whether there was "a political reason behind
all this," i.e. whether the Dutch (and previously British)
position was being driven by geopolitics rather than by the
letter of the law.


4. (C) Turning to bilateral relations with Serbia, Josipovic
expressed his disappointment in President Tadic's failure to
accept his personal invitation to his February 18
inauguration in Zagreb and over what he perceived as a lack
of positive response from Belgrade to his public statements
favoring improved relations. Ambassador Foley praised
Josipovic for the positive tone and flexibility that he had
publicly signaled toward resolution of the key open issues
between the two countries and cautioned that Josipovic should
not expect progress overnight. Josipovic responded by noting
that he and Prime Minister Kosor plan to work together to
address relations with Serbia and affirmed that
"consolidation of the region is a priority for all" in the
pursuit of peace, security and economic growth. He noted
there were no shortages of regional concerns: "Serbia is
putting itself into isolation over Kosovo," while Bosnia is
"a disaster." He expressed particular concern for the fate
of those Bosnian Croats who, rightly in his view, see the
third entity as a threat to their political status in Bosnia.
"They don't need a third entity; they need a functioning
state....(in which) the three nations must share equal
rights."

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5. (C) Ambassador Foley reiterated USG support for resolving
these and other regional problems, noting that progress will
be important in the context of Croatia's EU accession. Foley
cited Slovenia's effort to block Croatia's EU accession over
a long-standing border dispute as an example of the potential
for unresolved issues to affect the accession process and
added that European capitals will be keen to avoid a repeat
of this experience, however unfair this may seem to Croatia.
Josipovic responded by arguing that all border disputes in
the region should be adjudicated by the International Court
of Justice. Foley acknowledged that this may be a solution,
but went on to highlight the dispute between Croatia and
Serbia over refugee compensation as another complicating
factor in the accession process. Here Josipovic demonstrated
some emotion. Claiming that he did not see the connection
between the refugee issue and EU accession, Josipovic said
that Croatia did not intend to be "blackmailed by non members
as well." "Everyone has the right to return," he said, adding
that Croatian compensation for refugees unwilling to return
was unthinkable unless Serbia was ready to compensate Croatia
for war damages. Foley gently reinforced the point that
while the EU did not support Serbia's maximalist position
demanding compensation for refugees, nevertheless the absence
of resolution of the refugee question could "complicate" the
EU process. Josipovic did not dispute this but noted the
importance of determining who (and how many) actually still
met the legal definition of a refugee in Serbia.


6. (C) The meeting concluded with a brief discussion of
President Obama's Afghanistan strategy in which Foley
reiterated the USG's appreciation for Croatia's sustained and
effective support of ISAF operations, and responded to
Josipovic's question about the prospects for success. Foley
affirmed the USG's intention to support the security
relationship and offered to look for ways to be helpful as
Croatia tackles the challenges of economic reform and the
needed improvements in its business climate.


7. (C) Comment: An important first step in what we hope will
be a regular dialogue on key bilateral and regional issues,
this meeting demonstrated Josipovic's default mode as a legal
scholar and lawyer as well as his keen intelligence and
command of English. His first recourse is to the law, and he
retains enormous faith in the power of the law to distinguish
right from wrong. The sometimes messy compromises required
by diplomacy are new to him, as demonstrated by his reaction
to the observation that the outcome of the refugee issue may
be dictated by the demands of the accession process rather
than according to a strict legal framework. Nevertheless,
Josipovic's strong ethical bent and legal competence may
prove helpful as Croatia strives to fight corruption at home
and to complete its EU accession and stabilize relations with
its neighbors.
FOLEY