PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS; CANDIDATES PRESENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 000014 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV HR SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL RACE TIGHTENS; CANDIDATES PRESENT DISTINCT PROFILES REF: A. ZAGREB 000765 ¶B. ZAGREB 000006 ZAGREB 00000014 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Ivo Josipovic, candidate of the main opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP),and independent candidate Milan Bandic, who is the mayor of Zagreb, are competing in the January 10 presidential run-off election. They share similar positions on key foreign policy issues, such as the importance of NATO and eventual EU membership, but present starkly different styles and images. Recent tightening in the polls, however, suggests that Croatians are increasingly split on who they will choose. We expect that the recent turmoil in the ruling Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) may work to the detriment of Bandic because local media have speculated that Bandic might utilize the unpopular Sanader as an informal advisor. Recent polls notwithstanding, we judge that Josipovic has the edge in becoming Croatia's third president. END SUMMARY COMMON POLITICAL HERITAGE; SIMILAR ON POLICY ¶2. (U) Both Bandic and Josipovic began their political careers in the Zagreb branch of the SDP. They both joined the Communist Party in the 1980s, but they only became active in politics after the communist party reformed itself into a modern social-democratic political movement in the early 1990s. (NOTE: Bandic is running as an independent candidate only because the SDP expelled him from the party once he decided to challenge the party's official candidate, Josipovic, in the election.) True to their SDP heritage, both candidates have shown a liberal stance on most social issues--legalized abortion, gay-rights, and secular education. However, the pious Bandic struggled at times on the campaign trail to articulate a clear position on more socially contentious issues. They have both emphasized their support for Croatia's membership in NATO and Croatia's role in NATO-led operations. Bandic has gone further, indicating that Croatia should consider increasing its presence in Afghanistan if the NATO alliance made a formal request for additional troops. On Bosnia, Bandic has recently been the more strident of the two candidates in his statements of support for Bosnian Croats and the notion of a third entity. However, Josipovic's statements on the campaign trail, particularly in Herzegovina, have been fairly similar to Bandic's and represent a departure from the SDP's traditional lack of interest in Bosnian-Croat issues. STARKLY DIFFERENT STYLES; CAMPAIGN THEMES ¶3. (SBU) Josipovic is a well-respected legal scholar who tends to come across as a dry-as-dust law professor rather than a politician with a common touch. Although he can be very articulate in both Croatian and English, he is regarded by the public as boring and lacking in charisma. Croatians tend to view him as a secular Zagreb sophisticate; not surprisingly he has trouble connecting with the country's less educated, non-urban population. Josipovic is both an accomplished legal scholar and classical composer, but his political resume is undeniably thin, and this election represents his first real electoral campaign. Josipovic actually left the SDP in the mid-1990s to pursue his legal career, but appeared on the SDP ticket in 2003 and 2007 parliamentary races as a non-party candidate. He did little formal campaigning during this period and only officially rejoined the SDP in 2008. His presidential campaign has been almost exclusively focused on touting his anti-corruption credentials and "clean hands" reputation. After the first round results, President Mesic provided some tepid support to Josipovic's campaign by characterizing Bandic as being poorly suited for the office of the president. Nevertheless, Mesic fell short of formally endorsing Josipovic. ¶4. (SBU) Bandic, on the other hand, is a strong and experienced campaigner, and while he, at times, can come across as unpolished, he has an exceptional ability to connect with everyday folk. Unrelenting in his emphasis on his Roman Catholic faith and his resume of accomplishments as the four-term mayor of Zagreb, Bandic consistently highlights his humble roots and the long hours he puts in on the job for the betterment of Zagreb's working class. His populist campaign seems to be winning the support of the center right and rural voters despite persistent allegations of corruption and cronyism within his city administration. Under fire for an apparent lack of transparency in campaign finances, Bandic brushed off all hints of impropriety and noted that prosecutors have never brought any charges against him. The Catholic Church has provided some support for Bandic's candidacy, most notably when Cardinal Bozanic favored the candidate with a two-hour meeting following the first round results. However, in a prominent editorial the Church-based ZAGREB 00000014 002 OF 002 newspaper, Glas Koncila, dismissed both candidates as being ill-suited to bring about the "positive changes" Croatia needed. POLLS TIGHTENING AS BANDIC SPENDING SURGES ¶5. (U) Recent polls show a tightening race, with Josipovic consistently receiving about 55 percent of the vote in Croatia proper and Bandic now earning about 40 percent. Bandic's poll numbers have risen over the past ten days going from the low 30s to approximately 40 percent. One poll this week indicates Josipovic's lead is less than 10 percentage points, with Josipovic likely to receive about 55 percent of the vote and Bandic about 45 percent. Meanwhile, preliminary results for a media-monitoring study conducted by the democracy-oriented NGO (partially funded by post) indicate that Bandic has more than doubled what Josipovic spent on his campaign since the presidential contest began in November. Turnout was low in the first round race at 44 percent and is projected to increase slightly, up to 50 percent for the second round. This moderate turnout should favor Josipovic, who can count on the SDP's party machinery to turn out its base, and several polls have indicated that Josipovic is getting the preponderance of the traditional left-of-center SDP voters. (reftel A) The polls, however, do not capture the votes of the diaspora, which are expected to go overwhelmingly to Bandic and, depending on turnout, will probably provide Bandic with 4 to 5 additional percentage points. ¶6. (SBU) COMMENT: The recent turmoil in the HDZ, which resulted in former HDZ chairman and Prime Minister Ivo Sanader's expulsion form the party, may work to the detriment of the Bandic campaign. (reftel B) Sanader, who has experienced a dramatic loss of public support, has chosen to back Bandic and called on the HDZ to support him. However, HDZ leaders have refused to go along. Moreover, local media have reported that Bandic is likely to be a conduit for the return of Sanader's influence to politics. Some media have speculated that Bandic would go so far as to make Sanader an advisor in the realm of foreign policy, an area where Bandic has little experience. Despite the narrowing gap between the two candidates in the poll, we judge that a solid turnout of the SDP base for Josipovic and the liability that Sanader represents for Bandic is likely to give Josipovic the edge in becoming Croatia's third president. END COMMENT WALKER