AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000087 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2020 TAGS: PGOV EAID ECON GA AM SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S MEETING WITH ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK REF: YEREVAN 71 YEREVAN 00000087 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Ambassador Marie L. Yovanovitch. Reason 1.4 (b/d) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During a meeting with the Ambassador on February 11 Areg Barseghian, the head of the Asian Development Bank's Armenia office, outlined for the Ambassador the ADB's current projects in Armenia. The GOAM plans to manage the largest road project -- the North-South Corridor -- through a parallel structure that would bypass the dysfunctional Ministry of Transport, one of several recent instances where the GOAM's response to poor governance has been to create a workaround rather than reforming the institution. Barseghian said he had not heard of rumored plans by the Government of Georgia to cancel a planned road that would connect the North-South Corridor to the Georgian port of Batumi, and insisted that ADB remains committed to the project. Separately, the Georgian Ambassador told us that the GoG will build the road, but does not want to term to project "regional." End Summary. ADB PROJECTS -------------- ¶2. (C) Meeting with the Ambassador on February 11, ADB Senior Country Coordination Officer Areg Barseghian outlined some of the ADB's current projects in Armenia, which will amount to nearly $1 billion spread over about seven years. These include $40 million in co-financing (with the EBRD and Germany's DEG) of a new terminal at Zvartnots Airport and $48 million for construction of 220 km of rural roads, a project which Barseghian said is now 95 percent complete and should be finished this year (Note: Construction on the Zvartnots facility is well under way, though the ADB board has yet to formally approve its part of the financing. End Note). ADB is also providing $36 million for water infrastructure, and smaller amounts for regional development projects and technical assistance. ¶3. (SBU) ADB is also financing the Yerevan Urban Transport Project, a total of $200-300 million over 7-10 years. This would consist of new roads, an extension of the metro and new parking facilities. The main feature would be three bypass roads that would allow freight to avoid having to pass through Yerevan, where it currently must often negotiate narrow and congested streets not properly designed for large vehicles. Financing will be provided through a multi-tranche facility, and Barseghian said ADB may disburse a first tranche of $50 million by the end of 2010. NORTH-SOUTH ROAD -------------- ¶4. (C) ADB's current major project is the North-South Corridor, a road that will run from Iran to the Georgian border, and has an estimated price tag of $900 million, of which ADB is financing approximately $500 million. This project envisions the creation of a "Class A" four-lane (in most cases),dual-carriage road. This is about a seven-year project that will be done in phases: The first stage will upgrade the existing highway north from Yerevan to Ashtarak, then to Gyumri, and eventually to Bavra, near the Georgian border. South of Yerevan, it would connect to Kapan, near the Iranian border, and would be built largely in a new corridor, with fewer curves, in order to facilitate cargo traffic. Bargseghian said that work on the road north from Yerevan will be done first, due to greater near-term economic potential along that route, even though it is in much better shape than the roads south to the Iranian border. ¶5. (C) The project will be financed in tranches - the first one, for Yerevan-Ashtarak, will be about $70 million. The parliament recently voted to approve the multi-tranche financing facility and to accept the first tranche, which carries a concessional interest rate (subsequent tranches will carry commercial rates). ADB will make subsequent tranches available as the projects are ready; Yerevan-Ashtarak is projected to take three years to complete. ADB expects to lend about $150 million for the Ashtarak-Gyumri leg, construction on which could run concurrently with the Yerevan-Ashtarak segment. Barseghian says it could be approved before the end of 2010. ¶6. (C) In order to oversee the North-South corridor, the GOAM plans to bypass the Ministry of Transport, which has recently come in for serious criticism for mismanaging various projects. Instead, the current plan is to create a new YEREVAN 00000087 002.2 OF 002 Governance Council, chaired by the Prime Minister, to oversee the project, and a Project Management Unit to implement it. The GOAM has delayed approval of this unit, causing a delay in the start of work on the corridor's first phase. ¶7. (C) Appearing to contradict the recent assertions of Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian (reftel), Barseghian indicated that he has not heard of any plans by the Georgian government to withdraw its support for construction of the road from Bavra to Batumi, which would connect the North-South Corridor to a more direct route to Georgian ports. Kocharian believed that the GOG's lack of support could endanger ADB funding for the North-South Corridor as the project would no longer be considered "regional." Barseghian confirmed that ADB remains fully committed to the North-South corridor, and separately, the Georgian Amassador told us that the GoG will do "all that is required" to build their portion of the road. He said that the GoG does not want to call the road a "regional project" because it will then become the highest priority, limiting Georgian flexibility on allocation of funds. IF THE BORDER OPENS -------------- ¶8. (C) According to Barseghian, there is flexibility in the ADB's $500 million loan for the North-South corridor that would allow the GOAM to divert funds toward roads connecting to Turkey in the event of a border opening. Instead of the Gyumri-Bavra road, for example, the GOAM would be free to construct or upgrade a road to the Turkish border, connecting most likely to Kars. COMMENT -------------- ¶9. (C) Armenia is in desperate need of the infrastructure these projects will provide, and the construction activity will provide some helpful economic stimulus during a severe economic crisis. While the nearly $1 billion of borrowing these projects will entail will combine with loans from the World Bank, IMF and Russia to increase significantly the GOAM's indebtedness, many of these loans are concessional and the ADB so far appears confident that servicing the debts will not cripple the country's budget; the IMF, however, has characterized the ADB loans as "reckless." Perhaps more worrisome is that, in the case of the North-South Corridor, the GOAM yet again seems to be addressing problems of corruption and inept governance not by reforming a problematic agency (or dismissing its head),but by creating a parallel structure or process to bypass the problem. The solution to every governance or corruption problem cannot be to create a committee chaired by the Prime Minister. END COMMENT. YOVANOVITCH