UPDATE ON ARMENIA-TURKEY PROTOCOLS AND DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 000084 SENSITIVE SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL AM SUBJECT: UPDATE ON ARMENIA-TURKEY PROTOCOLS AND DRAFT AMENDMENTS TO THE LAW ON INTERNATIONAL TREATIES YEREVAN 00000084 001.2 OF 002 (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please protect accordingly. ¶1. (SBU) On February 12 the Turkey-Armenia protocols were submitted to the National Assembly and subsequently sent to the Committee on Foreign Relations for discussion. It is unclear when the Committee will discuss the protocols and when (or if) the Parliament will vote on them. The draft amendments to the Law on International Treaties that vest in Armenia's executive the authority to suspend or halt the process of entering into a treaty were submitted to the National Assembly on February 17. END SUMMARY. PROTOCOLS SUBMITTED -------------- ¶2. (SBU) On February 12 President Sargsian officially submitted the Armenia-Turkey protocols to the National Assembly for ratification. The protocols were sent to the Committee on Foreign Relations, but it is yet unclear when the Committee, headed by Armen Rustamian of the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun) - the main opponent of the protocols - will start its discussions. There seems to be no deadline for international treaties to be discussed in the committee, and no deadline for a vote by Parliament. "There are agreements that entered the National Assembly Agenda four years ago and are still waiting for discussion and ratification," Rustamian told Poloffs. "We are in no hurry to start discussing them in the Committee." Davit Harutyunian, head of the Committee on State Legal Issues, told us, however, that based on past practice, bills and treaties typically stay in committees no longer than a month. Interlocutors think the Committee will start the discussion whenever it is instructed to do so by the Presidency. ¶3. (SBU) Meanwhile, Dashnaktsutyun and the opposition Heritage Party continue their campaigns against ratification of the protocols. "Another hearing on the issue is necessary", Arstvik Minasian, a Dashnak MP, told us. The Dashnaks have also initiated a petition campaign against the protocols. Their volunteers told Poloff that they already have collected 60,000 signatures against opening the border, and will send the signatures to the National Assembly as soon as they reach 80,000. ¶4. (SBU) The leadership of the ruling coalition has sent mixed signals regarding the timing for National Assembly consideration and possible ratification. "The protocols will not be debated in the National Assembly until Turkey's parliament ratifies them," Galust Sahakian, the parliamentary leader of the governing Republican Party of Armenia, reaffirmed in an interview with RFE/RL on the day of submission. However, on February 16, Vice Speaker Samvel Nikoyan stated in a press conference that Yerevan must take the initiative by starting the process of ratification. In his opinion, Armenia should remain proactive in the Armenian-Turkish process, specifically by beginning the discussion of the protocols in the foreign relations committee. Nikoyan argued that the Armenian initiative to normalize relations with Turkey has enhanced its image in the eyes of the international community. "The continuation of this policy initiative will strengthen the position of Armenia," Nikoyan said. However, he added that the specific timing of ratification should be dictated by the logic of the process. ¶5. (SBU) On the day after his intereview, however, Nikoyan confided to us that his forward-leaning position was not welcomed by the Presidency.He said he would publicly make it clear that he had only expressed a personal preference for early discussion in the Committee of Foreign Affairs, and was not advocating an early move toward final ratification. (He did so February 17 on Shant TV.) NEW AMENDMENT CLARIFIES WITHDRAWAL PROCEDURES -------------- ¶6. (SBU) On February 17, the government submitted proposed amendments to the Law on International Agreements which, if approved, will make it easier for Armenia to walk away from the deal. "We are now establishing that before the entry into force of an international treaty, Armenia may stop participating in it," Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian said during a cabinet meeting. President Sargsian announced his intention to enact such amendments in December in response to Turkish leaders' continuing statements making the ratification of the Turkish-Armenian protocols conditional on the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. He made clear that Yerevan will annul the deal if Ankara fails to implement it within a "reasonable" time frame. ¶7. (SBU) Sargsian reaffirmed his position during a visit to London on February 10. "If, as many suspect, it is proven that Turkey's goal is to protract, rather than to normalize relations, we will have to discontinue the process," he warned during his Chatham House speech. Sargsian stressed at the same time that Armenia's National YEREVAN 00000084 002.2 OF 002 Assembly, dominated by his loyalists, will promptly ratify the protocols in the event of their endorsement by the Turkish parliament. ¶8. (SBU) "These changes [amendments to the law on international treaties] are mainly a political trick with which the authorities are trying to show Turkey that they have such an option and thereby to prod Turkey to ensure quick protocol ratification," said Artsvik Minasian, a Dashnak MP. Armen Rustamian labeled the changes as "cosmetic." Deputy Foreign Minister Shavarsh Kocharian confided to us that initially the authorities were inclined to come up with much more radical amendments to enable signature withdrawal, but subsequently, in the light of a more positive tone from Turkey, decided to move forward with a "softer version." He implied that since the President had declared his intent to initiate some kind of amendments to the law, the government had to come up with something, even if only to articulate steps already available to the government. ¶9. (SBU) The amendments clarify the mechanisms for terminating or suspending the procedures for entering into an international treaty. According to contacts, the right to terminate the process is already granted to a party by the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties. Regarding suspension, the bylaws of the National Assembly provide ample mechanisms to delay indefinitely the ratification process. Thus, interlocutors view the submission of the draft amendments as purely a signal to the Turks and the international community that Armenia will pull out of the process if the Turks show no indication of moving to closure. MYOVANOVITCH