CAMEROON: BIYA OFF TO A BUSY NEW YEAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000078

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: CM ECON KCOR PGOV PHUM PREL
SUBJECT: CAMEROON: BIYA OFF TO A BUSY NEW YEAR

REF: A. YAOUNDE 1046

B. YAOUNDE 1095


1. (SBU) Summary: President Biya set the tone for a busy
year with an uncharacteristically active January. In his
annual New Year's address, Biya focused on the economy and
the need to forge greater national unity as Cameroon enters
its fiftieth anniversary of independence. He praised the
Obama administration's consultative style and highlighted his
international engagement in a New Year's speech to the
diplomatic corps. In January, the government took small
steps to boost the economy, made a new round of
corruption-related arrests under "Operation Sparrowhawk,"
transferred equipment and the electoral roll to the Electoral
Commission (ELECAM) and moved forward on a new electoral
code. Speculation about early (2010) elections has reduced,
despite continued signs that the ruling CPDM party is in
campaign mode. Encouraged by these latest developments, the
European Union and UNDP are preparing to support ELECAM.
Like most Cameroonian political observers, we remain
skeptical of Operation Sparrowhawk and ELECAM but the events
of January suggests Biya may be more active in the year
ahead. End summary.

Biya's New Year's Messages
--------------


2. (U) In his annual New Year's address, Biya highlighted
Cameroon's declining economic growth resulting from the
global economic crisis. Although the economy "weathered the
storm with limited damage," he acknowledged "we fell short in
our objectives, particularly in the energy sector." For
2010, the President saw the need to stimulate industrial
production and anticipated the launch of a number of major
infrastructure projects, including the Lom-Pangar
hydroelectric dam, the Kribi deep sea port, the Memve'ele
dam, the Kribi natural gas power plant, the Mekin mini
hydroelectric power station on the Dja river, the
rehabilitation and extension of water supply systems, and the
modernization of roads. He also promised to speed up the
launching of cobalt, bauxite, gold and other ongoing mining
projects. He pointed to new investments in the social
sector, including three billion CFA (about $7 million) of
financial support to Cameroon's best university students.


3. (U) In addition to boosting the economy, Biya pointed to
strengthening democracy as "one of the two major thrusts of
our policy of greater achievements." The Electoral
Commission (ELECAM) "may require some adjustments," he said,
asserting that "ultimately we will have an electoral
mechanism that will make the results of upcoming polls
unchallengeable." He promised further progress in
decentralization and said "we have paved the way" for the
creation of the Senate. The war against corruption and
efforts to combat banditry would continue. Biya concluded by
proclaiming that 2010 would be a year to celebrate Cameroon's
fiftieth anniversary of independence, proclaimed on January
1, 1960, and its achievements, "foremost among which are
national unity and peace". Somewhat ominously, Biya also
denounced "systematic contestation by a minority of our
compatriots who would readily resort to lie-telling and
slander" and "would rather see our country plunged into all
forms of chaos for them to achieve their aims."


4. (U) In his New Year's address to the diplomatic corps,
Biya once again highlighted the global economic crisis and
its impact on Cameroon. He noted signs of a "new era in
international relations," marked by more extensive and
equitable global consultation on the world's major
challenges. He praised what he saw as the Obama
administration's willingness to "follow the path of dialogue
and consultation," with a more constructive approach to the
Arab-Israeli conflict, and closer collaboration with the
United Nations. Biya highlighted his participation at the
UN, the Copenhagen summit, and in meetings of the CEMAC, as
well as hosting visits to Yaounde in 2009 of the Presidents
of Gabon, Chad, Central African Republic, the Prime Minister
of France and Pope Benedict XVI.

Off to an Active Start
--------------


5. (U) Over the past month, the government has projected
forward movement on the economy. The GRC signed 250 billion
CFA ($530 million) of new water investment deals, hosted a
major water and energy conference, and named a new Agency for
the Promotion of Investment. The Minister of Finance
publicly announced 200 billion FCFA ($425 million) of
borrowing to cover budgetary gaps (ref B). Biya announced in
his New Year's address that the GRC would organize an
agricultural fair in Ebolowa, capital of the South Region

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(Biya's home area),which has not had such an event in twenty
years.


6. (SBU) "Operation Epervier" (Operation Sparrowhawk),
Biya's roundup and arrests of senior corrupt officials, was
launched in 2007 and has led to a number of high level
arrests. After a lull, on January 6-8, 2010 Epervier struck
again, with the arrests of Ntongo Onguene, former director of
the Airports of Cameroon (ADC),Haman Adama, former minister
of basic education, Catherine Abena, former Secretary of
State for Secondary Education, and about a dozen other more
junior officials, including several city mayors. On January
21, former Minister of Economy and Finance Polycarpe Abah
Abah, in prison on corruption charges since 2008, was
indicted on another count of corruption. Sources tell us
that at least ten more sitting and former ministers will soon
be arrested for corruption, possibly followed by a Cabinet
shuffle and more arrests, likely including former Prime
Minister Ephraim Inoni and the current Minister of Secondary
Education. The Minister of Finance recently announced plans
to investigate 100 officials in his ministry for corruption.
The government has also recently been more actively
discussing lifting immunity from prosecution for
parliamentarians, which is expected to lead to more
corruption-related arrests.


7. (U) Also on January 21, the Ministry of Territorial
Administration and Decentralization (MINADT) signed documents
officially transferring all electoral material to the
Elections Commission (ELECAM),including computer equipment,
software, voting materials, and the electoral register.
Speaking to the media, MINADT Minister Marafa Hamidou Yaya
said he had submitted a new Electoral Code to the Prime
Minister; Director General of ELECAM Mohan Sani Tanimou said
that the institution had identified 70 percent of its staff
and acquired a substantial amount of the property it needs
throughout the country.

Early Elections?
--------------


8. (SBU) Contacts have speculated for several months that
Biya might call early presidential elections in 2010, a year
before the constitutionally mandated date. This speculation
was fueled by a Presidential letter to the people, Biya's
active international engagement, an ambitious 2010 budget and
a growing chorus of support from CPDM militants (reftels).
Further supporting this speculation was the high profile
December 21 launch of a new book, "Paul Biya: The People's
Call," the first of two volumes of letters from supporters
calling on Biya to run as the ruling Cameroon People's
Democratic Movement (CPDM) party's presidential candidate in

2011. Preparations are also underway for Biya to travel in
the near future to Bamenda in the Northwest, the anglophone
heart of the main opposition party, to celebrate the fiftieth
anniversary of the armed forces. Other possible domestic
presidential travel is being discussed in the media. Biya
has not traveled within the country outside of Yaounde and
his village Mvomeka, for many years, making this Bamenda trip
appear to be a further sign that the electoral campaign has
begun.


9. (SBU) While contacts agree the CPDM is in election mode,
many seem less convinced than they were several months ago
that Biya will call early polls. Several civil society
contacts recently argued to Pol/Econ Chief that they saw no
reason why Biya would advance elections. In a recent
conversation with Pol/Econ Chief, Minister Delegate to the
Presidency in charge of Relations with the Assemblies and
Deputy Secretary General of the CPDM Gregoire Owona said he
personally did not expect early elections, although he
conceded "only the boss knows". "We're not in the business
of politics for politics sake," he continued, asking "why
would we move the election forward?" When Pol/Econ Chief
pointed to increased electoral campaigning by the CPDM, Owona
responded cryptically "we're always in campaign mode,"
denying that the current level of activity was unusual. He
saw no urgency in organizing a long-anticipated CPDM Congress
(which hasn't occurred in twelve years).

Comment
--------------


10. (U) Many Cameroonians remain highly skeptical of
ELECAM, pointing to its continued partisan leadership (10 out
of 12 Council members are from the ruling party). There is
also widespread cynicism about Epervier. Critics note that
endemic corruption continues, that none of those arrested
recently under Epervier have gone to trial and that the
government recently granted several of the victims of
Epervier pre-trial bail in exchange for paying back their

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stolen proceeds. Many see Biya's activism on ELECAM and
Epervier as an attempt to placate the international
community. The President's New Year's speech was criticized
by anglophones who pointed out that 2010 was only the
independence anniversary for francophones (anglophone regions
only became part of a federated Cameroon in 1961).
Furthermore, the speech offered none of the clues about early
elections that many Cameroonians expected.


11. (SBU) Whether or not Biya will move elections forward,
he continues to take steps to leave all his options open. By
transferring electoral materials to ELECAM and heightening
the Epervier anxiety within his government, he is signaling
that major change could be in the wind. Cameroonians have
been absorbed with the Africa Cup over the past month and the
loss of the Indomitable Lions soccer team has also defused
speculation that Biya might use a victory to advance the
election. The President's focus on investment and the
economy makes economic sense but it is also good politics.
The recent moves have encouraged the UNDP and European Union
to move forward with plans to provide ELECAM with technical
support, although the UN is still consulting and planning for
a final evaluation of electoral assistance in July.


12. (SBU) Epervier is no doubt a mix of corruption-fighting
and domestic politics, keeping potential rivals locked up and
others on their toes. The fact that Biya threatened
potential opponents while at the same time praising democracy
in his New Year's speech suggests we won't see more tolerance
for dissent in 2010. Biya deserves credit for continuing to
arrest accused corrupt officials, an aggressive approach
which is not in place in many other African countries.
However, we share the skepticism of many Cameroonian
observers about Epervier,s motives and their concerns about
the lack of an accompanying legal process. We are also more
cautious than the UN and EU about ELECAM since there has been
no movement to make the leadership less political.
Nonetheless, we are encouraged that a President and
government known for inertia, poor governance and slow
decision-making seem to be grabbing the new year by the
horns, especially on the economic front. While hoping to
strengthen his legitimacy and his bargaining position within
the CPDM (which appears to be showing more fissures),Biya
may also be thinking about his legacy. We expect to see a
continued heightened political and economic pace in the
coming few months, leading into the March parliamentary
session.
GARVEY