Cameroon: Minister of Territorial Administration

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000105 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE PASS TO AMEMBASSY MALABO E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/19 TAGS: PGOV PHUM CM KCOR PTER PINR SUBJECT: Cameroon: Minister of Territorial Administration Increasingly Worried CLASSIFIED BY: Ticknor, PE Chief; REASON: 1.4(D),(E) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 9 meeting with Ambassador, Minister of Territorial Administration and Decentralization (MINATD) Marafa Hamidou Yaya was very discouraged about the ability of the Electoral Commission (ELECAM) to run a good election. Recently named ELECAM officials were incompetent and corrupt, he said, adding that a failed election in 2011 could result in major civil unrest. The government's anti-corruption campaign ("Operation Epervier") is making senior officials nervous and has a definite political element, Marafa said. The Minister thought GRC decentralization efforts were being implemented slowly and meeting substantial resistance from some officials. He worried that Islamic extremism may be growing, especially in the north and in Douala. End summary. Elections ¶2. (C) Marafa was very discouraged about the status of the Electoral Commission, ELECAM, saying it was "running into a wall," with the recent naming of "incompetent" ELECAM officials whose primary motivation was making money out of elections. The ELECAM Council and Director General of Elections are "in open war," with Council members actively trying to sell off the equipment recently transferred to the Council from the former Elections Observatory (ONEL, which used to be run out of MINATD). "I'm scared," Marafa said repeatedly, noting the likely international criticism of a failed election, and the possible ensuing "blood bath from full blown civil unrest." Marafa was critical of Biya's delays in creating ELECAM and said the President was embarrassed about the institution's flaws. Marafa had submitted two drafts of a new electoral code to President Biya, one with elections run by ELECAM and one run by a hybrid of ELECAM and MINATD. Because he thought ELECAM would not be ready, Marafa dismissed the possibility of elections before the scheduled 2011 date. If ELECAM proves incapable of running an election in 2011 and Biya's mandate runs out, he will be an illegitimate ruler, Marafa added. Decentralization ¶3. (C) Decentralization is off to a slow start, with a lot of the legal structure yet to be put in place and resistance from locally based central government officials, according to Marafa. Marafa thought effective decentralization could result in 30-40% savings in government spending, but cautioned that he had discovered embezzlement in the Douala Council and elsewhere that pointed to the possibility decentralization could fuel corruption. Marafa hoped to form a decentralization advisory committee to help the process. (Note: Over the past year, the GRC has been talking more seriously about decentralizing political and fiscal authority. In his recent New Year's address, President Paul Biya mentioned decentralization as a goal for 2010. End note.) Fighting Corruption ¶4. (C) When asked about President Biya's aggressive anti-corruption campaign called "Operation Sparrowhawk" ("Epervier" in French),Marafa half-joked, "I might wind up in jail." Epervier was making many senior officials nervous, he said, adding that even those who recently gave their stolen money back to the government in exchange for staying out of prison fear that they could be jailed at a later date. He criticized the lack of professionalism in implementing Epervier, acknowledging some truth in criticism that Biya is using Epervier to get rid of his opponents, although "this is not 100% of the story." Islamic Extremism ¶5. (C) Marafa was very concerned about Islamic extremism in Nigeria and Cameroon. There were a lot of desperate people among the Muslim communities in the north and Douala, in particular, and some of them had unexplained money. The GRC didn't have enough means to monitor the situation, he worried. Comment ¶6. (C) Marafa is one of the more open, astute, and powerful ministers, in addition to being a Politboro Member of the ruling Cameroon People's Democratic Movement (CPDM) party. He is a Muslim from the north and well plugged into the Islamic community. He is spearheading decentralization and seems committed to it. His candid view of this slow process is discouraging but not surprising. We expect continued resistance from Yaounde- and locally- based central government officials. He was visibly nervous about Epervier. Several days after the meeting, a judge prevented him and several others from leaving Cameroon because of their need to depose in the "Albatross" airplane corruption YAOUNDE 00000105 002 OF 002 scandal. (The travel ban was subsequently lifted and Marafa later told the Ambassador he wasn't worried. Nonetheless, his picture linked to Albatross on the front page of newspapers was no doubt unsettling for him.) ¶7. (C) Marafa has always opposed ELECAM, which may in large part reflect the fact that his ministry lost control over elections when ELECAM was created. As a result, his view of ELECAM may be overly negative and dramatic. However, ELECAM has a long way to go to convince even senior government/CPDM officials. As reported reftel, President Biya also admitted to wringing his hands over ELECAM's challenges. The electoral code was cooked up within the government with no outside consultation, and none of our civil society or diplomatic contacts has seen a draft. Many observers share Marafa's conclusion that failed elections in 2011 could be followed by widespread civil unrest. GARVEY