SWAPO CRUSHES OPPOSITION AGAIN IN OKAHANDJA BY-ELECTIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 WINDHOEK 000166 SENSITIVE SIPDIS AF/S FOR SUSIE PRATT, USAID PRETORIA FOR MONICA MOORE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PGOV WA SUBJECT: SWAPO CRUSHES OPPOSITION AGAIN IN OKAHANDJA BY-ELECTIONS REF: A) 09 WINDHOEK 414; B) 09 WINDHOEK 453 ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Three months after Namibia's contested National Assembly and presidential elections, residents of the Okahandja constituency returned to the polls on February 24 to vote for a regional councilor. In another year, this by-election for a small constituency would have passed without notice, but given the attention on the embattled Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) and a dynamic roster of candidates, the by-election was a symbolic test of the state of political affairs in Namibia. Preliminary results from the ECN indicate that Steve Biko Boois, the SWAPO candidate, received more than twice the number of votes of his closest competitor, Christophine Paulus, who represented a coalition of opposition parties. End summary. -------------- The Rematch -------------- ¶2. (U) On February 24, residents of the Okahandja constituency, which includes a town of 20,000 people and nearby commercial farms, voted for a regional councilor. (Note: Regional councilors sit in Namibia's upper house of parliament, the National Council. End note.) The by-election was called after the previous councilor died in office in December 2009. Early figures released by the ECN show an average voter turnout in Okahandja. The numbers surprised many political analysts, who had predicted large crowds after the race became labeled a "rematch" between the ruling South West African People's Organization (SWAPO) and the Rally for Democracy and Progress (RDP). ¶3. (SBU) Although SWAPO easily claimed Okahandja in last November's general elections, its candidate in Okahandja, Steve Biko Boois, faced a significant challenge from both a coalition of seven opposition parties, which backed the RDP's Christophine Paulus, and from Ben Katamila, a popular community activist, who was expelled from SWAPO when he disagreed with its endorsement of Boois. Katamila was, in fact, Namibia's first ever independent candidate to seek national office. The fourth candidate, Ehnfried Muroua of the South West African National Union (SWANU),was largely ignored; analysts agreed that he was not expected to pose a real threat to Boois. ¶4. (SBU) Much has been made of the opposition parties' ability to pull together an alliance, an outcome they have rarely achieved in the past. In the general elections, 14 political parties ran for seats in the National Assembly, and 12 parties presented presidential candidates. Analysts compared this unlikely coalition to the opposition's successful efforts in October to overturn a decision made by the ECN to give the tender to print ballots for the general elections to a SWAPO-owned company (ref A). Not taking any chances, SWAPO dedicated considerable time and resources to the campaign in Okhandja, including arranging for President Pohamba and former president and founding father Sam Nujoma to address its final political rally on February 21. ¶5. (SBU) The Okahandja constituency has been controlled by SWAPO since the first regional elections in 1992. Nevertheless, the opposition was optimistic it could exploit growing voter frustration over a lack of water, sanitation, electricity, land, healthcare, and job opportunities, and it made those concerns the central theme of Paulus's campaign. Katamila, the independent, started his campaign strongly, but his support dwindled in recent weeks as his supporters appeared increasingly uncomfortable supporting an individual over a party. ¶6. (U) On February 25, the ECN announced preliminary results from the by-elections, giving a handy victory to Boois with 3,158 votes. The opposition coalition came in second, with Paulus winning 1,551 votes. Katamila won 480, and SWANU's Muroua won 51. WINDHOEK 00000166 002 OF 002 -------------- -------------- Litmus Test for the Electoral Commission of Namibia -------------- -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The Okahandja by-election was not only a face-off between SWAPO and the RDP, but also a test for the ECN. The electoral body is being challenged in Namibia's High Court by nine opposition parties, including the RDP, which dispute both the results of the November 2009 National Assembly and Presidential Elections and the ECN's administrative handling of those elections (Ref B). Some political analysts argued the by-elections were a chance for the ECN to redeem itself after months of criticism by the opposition. (Note: The case is expected to be heard on March 3 and 4, at which time the High Court has said it will announce its decision to order a recount; call for fresh elections; or accept the November results. End note.) ¶8. (SBU) The allegations made in the court challenge led several opposition parties, including the Democratic Turnhalle Alliance (DTA),to boycott the Okahandja elections. One DTA leader told Poloff that his party could not justify participating in the by-elections when the ECN had done nothing to rectify its mistakes from the November elections. Although the ECN was criticized during the pre-election phase in Okahandja for bungling the voters' roll and for deciding to again use "verification centers" to tabulate results, it has not been condemned for its overall handling of the Okahandja by-elections. In fact, one RDP supporter told Poloff on February 25 that his party was "happy" with the ECN's efforts. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Okahandja by-election was the first electoral face-off between SWAPO and the opposition since the elections in November. Expectations were high that the opposition-- this time working as a coalition-- might have a chance to defeat SWAPO, which would have led credence to its claims that the general elections were flawed. The clear win for Boois, however, seems to confirm SWAPO's continuing strength. The opposition is likely to re-strategize before regional and local authority elections take place later this year, although its unclear at this point if they will revisit the coalition approach. MATHIEU