POLISH MFA ON UKRAINIAN ELECTION: MIXED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000065 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE, EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/27/10 TAGS: PGOV PL PREL UP SUBJECT: POLISH MFA ON UKRAINIAN ELECTION: MIXED IMPLICATIONS REF: WARSAW 1112 Classified By: Acting DCM Michael Tulley, Reason 1.4 (b, d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. A Polish MFA official assessed the first round of Ukraine's presidential election as a "stunning success," but emphasized that Tymoshenko and Yanukovych must still be pressed to "respect the democratic process" in the second round. She also criticized Ukrainian President Yushchenko for frequently antagonizing Russia and stoking Ukrainian-Polish historical disputes. The official predicted that a Yanukovych or Tymoshenko victory would ease historical tensions between Poland and Ukraine, but Polish leaders--particularly President Kaczynski--may have a chilly relationship with the new Ukrainian President. END SUMMARY. FIRST ELECTION ROUND A SUCCESS . . . -------------- ¶2. (C) Maria Slebioda, the Head of the MFA's Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova section, told us that the MFA was pleasantly surprised at how well the first round of the Ukrainian election had been conducted. Her staff served as OSCE election monitors, and reported that the vote was free and fair. They observed that both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych's supporters occasionally abused vague election procedures, but the minor irregularities had little impact. . . . ROUND TWO PRESENTS CHALLENGES -------------- ¶3. (C) Slebioda nevertheless expressed concern that a contentious second round could unravel what has so far been a successful election -- and Ukraine's transition to a stable democracy. The MFA anticipate a close race, and Slebioda concurred with DemosEuropa analysts, who asserted that a 2-3 percent gap between Tymoshenko and Yanukovych could tempt the loser to make fraud accusations against the winner. Such a course could throw the decision to the courts, damaging already-fragile voter confidence in the electoral process. Slebioda said the U.S. and EU should send a consistent message to the candidates about respecting the will of the voters. MIXED IMPLICATIONS FOR POLAND -------------- ¶4. (C) MFA fears about a Yanukovych victory (reftel) were probably exaggerated (reftel),according to Slebioda. She argued that Poland's close ties to Ukrainian President Yushchenko as he "deliberately antagonized" Russia had complicated Poland's own goal of improving Polish-Russian relations. In contrast, Yanukovych and Tymoshenko will probably seek to "reset" Ukraine's relationship with Russia. Both candidates will also probably seek to use the EU as a means to maintain Ukraine's sovereignty and European identity, giving Brussels at least some leverage with Ukraine. ¶5. (C) Slebioda told us that Yushchenko's ouster will almost certainly ease Polish-Ukrainian historical tensions. She expressed dismay at Yushchenko's awarding the Hero's Title to Stepan Bandera--the leader of a Ukrainian nationalist group accused of murdering thousands of Poles during WWII. The move did not help Yushchenko in the elections and antagonized Ukraine's neighbors, including Poland. She asserted that neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych are likely to stoke tensions with Poland, although Yanukovych might side with Russia in ongoing historical disputes. ¶7. (C) Polish leaders will find it hard to build close personal relationships with either candidate, Slebioda said. Tymoshenko is driven by transactions rather than personal bonds, while Yanukovych--although pragmatic--must resent Poland's role in supporting Yushchenko during the 2004 "Orange Revolution." She added that FM Sikorski's December 2009 meeting with Yanukovych was cordial, but the two are not close. FUTURE ENGAGEMENT MOSTLY IN KACZYNSKI'S HANDS -------------- ¶8. (C) Although FM Sikorski met President Yushchenko several times, Slebioda emphasized that it was up to President Kaczynski to engage the next Ukrainian president. Slebioda, who has complimented her working level contacts at Kaczynski's office in the past, sharply criticized the Presidency's lack of coordination with the MFA on Ukraine WARSAW 00000065 002 OF 002 policy. She judged that Kaczynski's anti-Russian rhetoric and close personal relationship with Yuschchenko will make it difficult for him to build rapport with either Tymoshenko or Yanukovych. As for the MFA, it will focus its efforts on the next Prime Minister (if Tymoshenko is elected President) and Foreign Minister of Ukraine. FEINSTEIN