POLAND'S PM TUSK - NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L WARSAW 000062 NOFORN SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/FO, EUR/CE NSC FOR HOVENIER E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/28/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREL PL SUBJECT: POLAND'S PM TUSK - NOT RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT REF: A. WARSAW 17 ¶B. WARSAW DAILY REPORT 01/20/2010 Classified By: Ambassador Feinstein for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) In a hastily arranged press conference this morning, Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Platform, PO) announced he will not run for president. Pundits and party insiders had speculated for some time that Tusk was reconsidering a second run for the presidency (reftel),after his defeat to incumbent President Lech Kaczynski (Law and Justice, PiS) in ¶2005. Kaczynski has not announced whether he will run for re-election, but is widely expected to do so. ¶2. (SBU) In announcing his decision, Tusk cited the need to maintain Poland's economic stability as the main reason. He also said that he needed to remain in his current position to govern effectively and that a presidential campaign would distract attention and energy from his reform agenda. Tusk said he will remain chairman of the PO. LET THE RACE BEGIN ¶3. (C) Tusk did not announce the PO's replacement candidate for president. Tusk's Number Two in the party hierarchy, Grzegorz Schetyna, told the press that PO's governing board would announce a candidate soon. Some PO members have publicly called for primary elections. Media speculation has focused on Sejm Speaker Bronislaw Komorowski and Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski. Deputy Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak said privately last week that Komorowski was the leading replacement (ref daily report). Two other popular candidates, European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek and Warsaw Mayor Hanna Gronkiewicz-Waltz, have said publicly that they are not interested in the job. KOMOROWSKI VS. SIKORSKI ¶4. (C/NF) Komorowski and Sikorski are both members of the PO. Sikorski only joined the party after being named foreign minister in 2007. Party insiders say Sikorski's status as a party outsider weakens his chances, even though he regularly polls as one of Poland's most popular politicians. His previous PiS membership could also be a negative. ¶5. (C) Komorowski is a nationally-known figure with an aristocratic pedigree -- still a plus for most Poles. He was a Solidarity activist who went underground during Martial Law. He is also a founding member of PO with a reputation for rising above politics. WEIGHING THE RISKS ¶6. (C) Tusk is one of Poland's most skilled politicians. As the odds-on favorite, he did not step away from the race for fear of losing. The main factor was the feared consequences for the fractious PO party if he left the job. FEINSTEIN