POLAND - WILL PM TUSK RUN FOR PRESIDENT?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 WARSAW 000017 SIPDIS STATE FOR EUR/CE E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/07/2020 TAGS: PGOV PREF PL SUBJECT: POLAND - WILL PM TUSK RUN FOR PRESIDENT? REF: KRAKOW 49 Classified By: DCM William A. Heidt for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Donald Tusk has said his Civic Platform (PO) party will not decide until March on its candidate for the fall 2010 presidential elections. Although he is the overwhelming favorite, Tusk is seen to be buying time to help assure victory, having lost the presidential election in 2005 in an upset to President Lech Kaczynski. Tusk,s inclination to delay a formal announcement has caused consternation within PO ranks, where there is concern about PO,s prospects in the unlikely event Tusk were to bow out. END SUMMARY. TUSK'S CANDIDACY WIDELY ASSUMED, BUT NO COMMITMENT ¶2. (C) Since PM Tusk became Prime Minister in 2007, his interest in running for president in the fall of 2010 has been judged a foregone conclusion. President Lech Kaczynski narrowly defeated Tusk in the last presidential election in 2005 even though polls predicted a Tusk victory. The presidency, while less powerful than the prime minister position, is still the most coveted political office in Poland. Over the past two years, Tusk has declined to commit to a presidential run, saying he would support any candidate who shared his views and could win. PO members regularly say that Tusk will run only if he believes victory is assured. ¶3. (C) The presidential race is beginning to take shape. On December 19, the Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) named its Deputy Chair and Sejm Deputy Speaker, Jerzy Szmajdzinski, as its candidate. Szmajdzinski is backed by former President Aleksander Kwasniewski, and is considered a long shot. Former Foreign Minister and PO co-founder, Andrzej Olechowski, announced his intention to run on December 21. Olechowski was expected to run as the candidate of the Democratic Party (SD),an outside parliament fringe party, but is running as an independent instead. Many of Olechowski,s potential supporters are also PO supporters and if he made it into a second round runoff with Tusk, the Polish Left might support Olechowski. Tusk's chief rival, however, is President Kaczynski, who is expected to run for re-election. LOOKING FOR A WAY OUT? ¶4. (C) On November 21, Tusk publicly floated a proposal to amend the constitution which would diminish the powers of the presidency, while expanding those of the prime minister. The �0A;proposal was received poorly, contributed to Tusk's declining poll numbers, and fueled speculation about Tusk,s motivations. Tusk,s proposed amendments would eliminate the presidential veto and provide for election of the president by a national assembly, rather than through direct popular vote, as is now the case. The move surprised even members of Tusk,s Party as well as his coalition partner, the Polish People's Party (PSL). To many, the proposal seemed dead on arrival, since it lacks the support of the main opposition party, Law and Justice (PiS),which is needed to attain the two-thirds supermajority needed to amend the constitution. Despite the negative public reaction and questions about his intent, Tusk said the initiative was "not a PR maneuver," and that he continues to support it. ¶5. (C) Tusk,s proposal to weaken the powers of the office he has been widely believed to seek sparked speculation about whether he is now considering remaining as prime minister. His present term could last until 2011. Janusz Palikot of PO, a Member of Parliament who is a candidate to succeed Tusk as party leader if Tusk runs for president, said publicly that Tusk might be looking for a way out of the race, to avoid opening a succession dispute for party leader and the premiership within PO. In a recent meeting with Krakow CG (see reftel),Member of Parliament, Jaroslaw Gowin, said Tusk remains the only feasible PO candidate for president because he is the only member of the party able to capture the support of competing PO factions. WHY NOT RUN? ¶6. (C) First among the reasons why Tusk may opt out is that he will have to run on his government's track record, which thus far has not lived up to high expectations. Although recent opinion polls indicate Tusk would defeat all comers -- last autumn's corruption scandal notwithstanding -- a drawn-out campaign might change that dynamic. Tusk has said publicly that the fruits of his government's modernization and infrastructure programs will not be visible until 2011 at the earliest. The government has completed preparations and signed contracts for large-scale highway WARSAW 00000017 002 OF 002 construction projects, but most work will not begin until 2010 or 2011. In November, as PO marked two years in office, PiS and media critics blasted Tusk for failing to deliver on a long list of campaign promises. While Tusk's personal popularity remains high -- he recently topped the list of an annual survey of "Poland's Politician of the Year" -- his government is much less popular. In a separate poll, almost half of those questioned said they would not like to see PO govern for a second four-year term. ¶7. (C) Politics aside, Tusk seems to enjoy being Prime Minister. After two years, many within PO feel he has grown into the position. "Tusk simply likes governing" and increasingly realizes that as President his influence in Polish politics would be more limited than it is now, according to PO parliament member, Michal Szczerba, who is close to the Prime Minister. Tusk's adept handling of last October's corruption scandal, dubbed "Gamble-gate," enhanced his reputation as a skillful political leader, even as it eroded support for his party. Tusk also seems more comfortable taking a hard line in party politics. When reporters asked Tusk for his reaction to a tell-all interview with former Deputy Prime Minister Grzegorz Schetyna, whom Tusk demoted, the Prime Minister said, "Boys don't cry." WEIGHING THE RISKS ¶8. (C) Despite his rivalry with Tusk, Schetyna has acted in his new role as parliamentary caucus chair to reinforce party discipline. He has created incentives for MPs to improve their performance, and now disseminates rapid-reaction talking points to ensure MPs stay on message. With party unity stronger and his own position unquestioned, there is a growing sense in PO that Tusk is unwilling to take the risk that his party apparatus might collapse as he shifts focus to the presidential campaign. ¶9. (C) If Tusk were to decide to shun a presidential campaign, he could ask other prominent PO personalities to run, such as Sejm Speaker Bronislaw Komorowski, a former Solidarity activist who went underground during Martial Law. Former PM Jan Krzysztof Bielecki, who is very close to Tusk, is another name frequently mentioned. Press speculation focused on Bielecki after his recent announcement that he would step down from his position as head of the Italian-owned Polish Bank Pekao in January 2010. Former PM Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz, who was a Democratic Left Alliance candidate for President in 2005, is another possible presidential candidate, although Tusk recently asked him to head his team of foreign policy advisors, probably in an effort to sideline him from the presidential race. (Cimoszewicz has not yet responded to the PM,s offer. Some pundits speculate that the post might not be sufficient to entice the former PM, who was reported as initially demanding a deputy prime minister position. If Cimoszewicz accepts the position, it could create tensions between him and FM Radoslaw Sikorski.) With a like-minded and compliant ally in the presidential palace -- instead of Kaczynski -- Tusk would be able to advance PO's modernization and reform agenda and set up his government's re-election in 2011. Such a move would also avoid what some describe as the Blair-Brown scenario, in which a less popular successor would preside over the decline of the party. By staying on as Premier, Tusk would not have to step down as party chair and could remain firmly in control of the party and the government. COMMENT: TUSK'S ELECTORAL CALCULUS ¶10. (C) If elected President, Tusk would be likely to hand the reins of the party to another PO notable, perhaps Speaker Komorowski or Schetyna. Tusk might ask Bielecki or Komorowski to take over as interim PM until the 2011 parliamentary elections. If the election calculus changes and Tusk makes the surprise decision not to run, he would likely ask Komorowski to run as PO's candidate against Lech Kaczynski. Komorowski would be the heavy favorite in a one-on-one against the incumbent Kaczynski. A three-way race, however, could split the anti-Kaczynski vote, the factor that at this time tips the balance in favor of a decision by Tusk to run for president, as most expect. The entry into the race of the charismatic Olechowski, whose PO roots threaten both Kaczynski and Tusk, may have already sealed Tusk,s decision to make a second presidential run. HEIDT