LITHUANIA AND UKRAINE WILL REMAIN STRATEGIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000086 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2020 TAGS: PREF PHUMS XH UP LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIA AND UKRAINE WILL REMAIN STRATEGIC PARTNERS REGARDLESS OF ELECTION OUTCOME Classified By: Charge d'Affairs Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) an d (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: MFA Head of Ukraine and Moldova Division Dainius Zickevicius emphasized to Embassy February 2 two points regarding Lithuanian policy toward Ukraine: first, the GOL considers it a victory in and of itself that the first round of the Presidential election corresponded to international standards; and second, regardless of the result of the February 7 run-off, Lithuania will remain a strategic partner to Ukraine and the GOL will actively support its European and Euro-Atlantic integration. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Zickevicius said the GOL is not forecasting a winner but if current Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko prevails, he predicts an end to a period of political instability in Ukraine. If Tymoshenko loses, she will no doubt lead a powerful coalition in opposition to the new president, Viktor Yanukovych. Zickevicius also speculated that if Yanukovych does win, he may call a parliamentary election as early as May 2010 in an attempt to bolster his power. He added that Yanukovych would have very little to lose with such a move because once elected, he would already be facing a potent opposition. ¶3. (C) Zickevicius also confirmed media reports that the Lithuanian embassy in Kyiv contacted Yanukovych's campaign headquarters and requested that the campaign publicly deny the false allegations that election monitors from Georgia, Lithuania, and Poland intend to destabilize the situation in Ukraine following a Yanukovych victory. A spokesman for Yanukovych reciprocated by labeling the Lithuanian request a "provocation," without providing any explanation. Zickevicius stressed that the GOL and its embassy in Kyiv will abstain from further actions or comments in regard to this election run-off. They have no interest in getting involved in this campaign or being part of any election story. ¶4. (C) Comment: Our conversation with Zickevicius indicated that Lithuania views the Ukraine election very much in terms of how it would affect the future of Yulia Tymoshenko -- if she wins, she will be President; if she loses, she will lead a powerful opposition. The Lithuanians view her as a more practical and pragmatic politician than Yanukovych both in dealings with Russia and Euro-Atlantic institutions. The overall thrust of our discussion revealed the Lithuanian view (or hope) that the future of Ukraine inevitably lies in the west, not the east, even if Viktor Yanukovych is elected President. LEADER