LITHUANIA SKEPTICAL ON FURTHER ENGAGEMENT WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L VILNIUS 000059 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2020 TAGS: PREL XH RU BO LH SUBJECT: LITHUANIA SKEPTICAL ON FURTHER ENGAGEMENT WITH BELARUS AND RUSSIA REF: VILNIUS 55 Classified By: DCM Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Ministry of Foreign Affairs Director of Eastern Neighborhood Policy, Jonas Grinevicius, discussed current Lithuanian policy toward both Belarus and Russia with Embassy officers January 25. He stressed that President Grybauskaite and the GOL are "very much on the same page." They view relations with Belarus and Russia as functional and necessary but that there is not a lot of energy to push relations further than where they are now. Despite this skepticism, however, Grinevicius stressed that there is no need to be "loudly negative" either. End Summary. -------------- BELARUS -------------- ¶2. (C) According to Grinevicius, both President Grybauskaite and the GOL are "disappointed" in Belarus -- in particular with the potential Lithuania-Belarus border treaty agreement. He said Lithuania "broke spears and twisted arms" to bring an agreement to the table only to see it whither because of Belarusian inaction on earlier promises of openness. ¶3. (C) Grinevicius said there is no energy in the President's office or the GOL to push the agreement further at this time for several reasons. One, the requirement that Lithuanians register with local police authorities once they get across the border is too onerous; and two, there is concern that once a Lithuanian gets a successful business or business relationship up and running, the Government of Belarus will step in and drive it out. He also said he suspects the Belarusian KGB had a hand in vetoing any movement toward an agreement fearing Lithuanian influence, business or otherwise, inside its borders. ¶4. (C) In addition, Grinevicius revealed the Lithuanian MFA's own concern about increased business ties with Belarus. He said there is a worry that Lithuanian businessmen might bring back from Belarus the old Soviet mentality or method of conducting business, i.e. bribes and corruption as common practice. ¶5. (C) Grinevicius said another obstacle to improved bilateral ties is the lack of cooperation on the case of Vladimir Uskhopchik, whom the Lithuanians want to extradite from Belarus for his involvement in the attempted January 13, 1991 overthrow of the new Lithuanian independent government. Legally, Grinevicius admitted, Lithuania does not have a case, but he said the extradition of Uskhopchik is the "right thing to do." -------------- RUSSIA -------------- ¶6. (C) Grinevicius also discussed the current state of Lithuania-Russia relations, again stressing that President Grybauskaite and the GOL are in agreement. Lithuania is not "loudly negative" about the relationship but neither is there much enthusiasm to push it further. He said the Lithuanians do not appreciate Russian media attempts to portray the Baltic states as "hysterical" and a burden to both the EU and NATO. ¶7. (C) Grinevicius characterized Prime Minister Putin and President Medvedev not as leaders of separate "camps" but instead as spokesmen to different facets of Russian society. Putin speaks to 80% of the Russian people -- the older, less sophisticated mass that still view the Soviet days fondly. Medvedev speaks to the other 20% -- educated, perhaps English speaking, younger -- who want to engage with the West. It's not a mixed message, just a different audience. Putin is still firmly in command and still driving toward Russian dominance of its neighbors. ¶8. (C) Comment: Grinevicius commented several times on the close alignment of the President's office and the MFA regarding Lithuanian foreign policy. When discussing possible replacements for FM Usackas, he made clear that whoever it is will be the "President's man." (Note: MP Audronius Azubalis was nominated to the Foreign Minister position on January 26 (reftel)). DERSE