DOES ILL WILL BETWEEN PRESIDENT, FOREIGN MINISTER

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 VILNIUS 000003 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/04/2020 TAGS: PGOV LH SUBJECT: DOES ILL WILL BETWEEN PRESIDENT, FOREIGN MINISTER PRESAGE CABINET CHANGE? REF: VILNIUS 716 Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Damian R. Leader for reasons 1.4 (b) a nd (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Growing public disagreement between President Dalia Grybauskaite and Foreign Minister Vygaudas Usackas has prompted speculation by government officials, political analysts and the media that Usackas may lose his job in a Cabinet reshuffle that is expected early in 2010. End summary. ¶2. (U) Following the December 22 release of a parliamentary commission's report of its investigation into the alleged existence of a CIA prison in Lithuania, Grybauskaite was publicly and sharply critical of Usackas' interpretation of the commission's findings, which appeared to contradict her assertion that the report vindicated her earlier suspicions that such a prison existed. Usackas had said that the most important message was that the commission did not find conclusive evidence that CIA detainees were transported to or through Lithuania. Grybauskaite told journalists on December 28, "If Mr. Usackas knows better than the commission's investigation and is very certain, I sincerely wish him good luck." She did not answer questions about whether she could continue to work with the Foreign Minister. ¶3. (U) Political analysts, noting that Usackas' characterization of the report's findings was accurate, said Grybauskaite's criticism appeared to stem more from the fact that his public comment differed from hers. Media are treating the spat seriously, with one newspaper predicting that "a change of management at the MFA is in the cards for the coming year." ¶4. (C) There have been other public disagreements between the two. Earlier in December, Usackas said he planned to appoint a former aide to ex-President Valdas Adamkus, Valteris Baliukonis, to head Lithuania's "special mission" to Afghanistan. In October, Grybauskaite had rejected Baliukonis' appointment as ambassador to Spain, saying "I have no intentions of appointing this person anywhere...I know him...and from my personal experience I will definitely not appoint such a person." Ambassadorial appointments are made by the President on the recommendation of the government. Because the Afghanistan position is not an ambassadorship, Grybauskaite has no formal say in whether Baliukonis can be assigned. When Ambassador Derse asked well-connected Lithuanian diplomat Zygimantis Pavilionis whether Usackas had cleared Baliukonis' Afghanistan appointment with Grybauskaite's office, Pavilionis shook his head and talked of a "growing incompatibility" between the president and foreign minister, which he said is "likely to worsen, and not to the benefit of my Minister." . The MFA's Deputy Head of the Transatlantic Relations Department, Jonas Daniliauskas, told us December 18 that Usackas knows he cannot appoint Baliukonis to be an Ambassador because Grybauskaite would never agree. But because the position in Afghanistan is not technically an ambassadorship, though Baliukonis would head the mission there, the MFA does not need Presidential approval. ¶5. (S) While Usackas has come across as less than adroit in his dealings with the president, he has provided logical explanations for his positions in both of these cases. Concerning the prison reports, Usackas told Ambassador Derse on December 28 that he was concerned about media coverage of the commission report, and especially of Grybauskaite's remarks that the report "confirmed" her indirect suspicions about the existence of a prison. Usackas said he felt he had to speak out because following Grybauskaite,s remarks, now the man on the street believes that there was a prison and prisoners held there." His comment did not dispute the report's finding that "conditions were created" for a prison, but only that it did not confirm that any such facilities were ever used. ¶6. (C) Simonas Satunas, a Lithuanian diplomat now detailed to the State Department, told us December 30 after speaking with Usackas the Minister believed it important to speak out because he thought Grybauskaite's assumptions would hurt U.S.-Lithuanian ties. Usackas said he expected the public difference of opinion between him and Grybauskaite on this topic would continue. ¶7. (C) On the Baliukonis appointment to Afghanistan, Usackas said he was following the recommendation of a Foreign Ministry commission that looks at possible assignments for career diplomats. Baliukonis had been Lithuania's acting consul general in the United Arab Emirates and served as charge d'Affaires to Argentina and five other South American countries before becoming Adamkus' diplomatic advisor. VILNIUS 00000003 002 OF 002 Before Grybauskaite objected, Baliukonis' appointment as ambassador to Spain had been approved by the parliamentary foreign affairs committee and the Cabinet of Ministers, as well as having received agrement from Spain. ¶8. (U) Usackas similarly voiced objections to Grybauskaite,s recall of Mecys Laurinkas, Lithuania,s Ambassador to Georgia and former head of the State Security Service (VSD),after he publicly questioned the existence of secret prisons in Lithuania, saying Laurinkas was only defending his own position. ¶9. (C) Logic is unlikely to provide much protection for Usackas in a personality conflict with Grybauskaite, who won a resounding election victory last spring and continues to enjoy approval ratings of up to 80 percent. Even in areas where Lithuania's Constitution give the president little or no authority, she has been able to use her immense popularity as a lever to advance her agenda. And this is one area where the president has real power: the Constitution says that the president decides the basic issues of foreign policy and, together with the government, conducts foreign policy. ¶10. (C) Usackas has said that he expects tension with Grybauskaite to continue, and also told us that Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who brought Usackas into the Cabinet, is "mediating" between him and the President. (Asked by reporters on December 30 about the quality of Usackas' work, the Prime Minister said that in foreign policy "Lithuania was really quite successful in pursuing the goals it had set for itself over this year.") ¶11. (C) Despite these disagreements, Grybauskaite's foreign policy staff works very smoothly with their MFA counterparts. The policy differences between the principals are not dramatic. Usackas is more zealous in supporting Georgia and Ukraine's EuroAtlantic aspirations, while Grybauskaite is more skeptical of the internal leadership of both countries. Both favor more pragmatic relations with Russia. Usackas more openly advocates close ties with the United States whereas Grybauskaite's first impulse is to look to Brussels, but that distinction should not be overdrawn. Both are leaders the Embassy works well with and expects to continue to do so regardless of how the present struggle plays out. ¶12. (C) Some changes in the Cabinet are expected in coming weeks because of possible shifts in the makeup of the governing coalition. A non-coalition parliamentary faction threw its support to the government in the recent vote on the 2010 budget, and Kubilius and others have said it is possible that faction will be given the right to name a Cabinet minister. If the 11-member faction, Lithuania United, succeeds in negotiations and formally joins the coalition, further redistribution of Cabinet posts might well occur. In the discussion about which Cabinet positions might be ripe for change because of those party politics, the Foreign Minister's job has not been mentioned. But the timing could then be fortuitous to make simultaneous changes for other reasons, too. ¶13. (C) MFA Chancellor Kestutas Jankauskas told us half the MFA staff expect Usackas to be out of a job very soon, while the other half think he might be protected by the fact that Grybauskaite has recently forced out the head of the State Security Service (VSD),and that promptly doing the same to the foreign minister could be seen as an unseemly power play. ¶14. (C) Usackas, former ambassador to both the United States and the United Kingdom, was mentioned as a possible presidential candidate earlier this year, though he did not publicly encourage such speculation and in the end did not run. Should he lose his current job, many expect him to turn his considerable talents to politics. There has never been any chemistry between Grybauskaite and Usackas, and he is considered a political rival and potential challenger, even though the next presidential election will not be until 2014. Jankauskas told us December 30 he thought it is Grybauskaite's political advisors who are encouraging the President to push Usackas out of government, specifically because they see him as a potential challenger. So another factor in Grybauskaite's political calculations could be whether she is better served politically by keeping Usackas on the inside, rather than giving him the freedom to act from the outside. LEADER