AMBASSADOR RICE MEETS NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 USUN NEW YORK 000104 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2020 TAGS: PREL PARM MNUC UNSC IR RP SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR RICE MEETS NPT REVIEW CONFERENCE PRESIDENT CABACTULAN Classified By: Ambassador Susan E. Rice for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador Rice on February 22 met with Filipino Ambassador Libran Cabactulan, President-elect of the Review Conference (RevCon) of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) to be held in May, ¶2010. Cabactulan said he is gauging expectations of the States Parties to the NPT, and based on his meetings said he is cautiously optimistic that the RevCon can achieve success in strengthening the NPT regime. The flexibility of the United States, he said, drives part of his optimism and is a key to the success of the RevCon. Moreover, he said expectations center on the nuclear-weapon states (NWS) making clear and transparent progress on nuclear disarmament, without which progress in other areas will be difficult. In addition to nuclear disarmament commitments, Cabactulan said progress on implementing the 1995 NPT RevCon resolution on the Middle East will be key to success in May. Regarding Iran, Cabactulan remarked that states should not overestimate Iran's ability to negatively influence NAM countries, but he also said many NAM states sympathize with Iran as a developing country with ambitions for peaceful nuclear energy. Despite some NAM countries' judgment that Iran could undermine the RevCon, he assessed that many in NAM do not consider Iran's enriching uranium to 20% as problematic since that level still falls within the parameters of peaceful uses. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Ambassador Rice on February 22 met with Filipino Ambassador Libran Cabactulan, President-elect of the NPT Review Conference (RevCon) to be held in May, 2010. Ambassador Rice explained that the U.S. attaches great importance to strengthening the NPT at the RevCon and building on the high-profile commitments of President Obama during his first year in office. Cabactulan said he will be based in New York through the end of the RevCon and will make himself available to NPT signatories. He said that based on his meetings with signatories, he is guardedly optimistic that the RevCon will be a success and strengthen the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Ambassador Rice queried Cabactulan on the mood of the states parties and whether some delegations would come to the RevCon to make substantive progress or grandstand. Cabactulan replied that signatories want success, but he admitted that he is worried about the difficulties that Iran in particular can make. ¶3. (C) Cabactulan assessed that most delegations have three issues they want addressed: a robust strengthening of the NPT regime, practical progress on implementing the 1995 resolution on the Middle East, and ensuring that no single issue threatens the RevCon's success. On the Middle East in particular, he said the NAM and the Arab states recognize there is an imbalance in the region where Israel, a non-NPT party, adheres to the most minimal of safeguards while Iran, as an NPT party, is forced to abide by tougher standards and inspections. Progress on a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the Middle East is also crucial because, in his opinion, a regional nuclear-arms race is a strong possibility. Cabactulan said that most states parties, in particular countries in the NAM, desire an unequivocal undertaking by the NWS to make progress on nuclear disarmament, including a change of nuclear doctrine and a practical "roadmap" of implementation. The NAM would also like the creation of a nuclear convention, consistent with the spirit of Article VI of the NPT. ¶4. (C) With respect to Iran, Ambassador Rice said the Iranians are inherently unconstructive and are not increasing confidence in their nuclear program. Other countries need to work toward keeping the RevCon positive and not dignify Iran's planned conference on nuclear disarmament scheduled for April 18-19, one week before the RevCon's commencement. Cabactulan replied that we should not overestimate Iran's influence over NAM positions, but he judged that many NAM states sympathize with Iran as a developing country with ambitions for peaceful nuclear energy. Moreover, despite some NAM countries' judgment that Iran could undermine the RevCon, he assessed that these same countries do not consider Iran's enriching uranium to 20% as problematic since that level still falls within the parameters of peaceful uses. ¶5. (C) Cabactulan said that based on the negotiations during the NPT Preparatory Committee (held in New York in April-May 2009) he added a third subsidiary body to focus on Article X withdrawal provisions for the RevCon. Initially no party objected to this decision, but he said Iran subsequently said it opposed the establishment of this body. This issue must be resolved, he said, because Iran--although it claims to have no substantive opposition to the issue--could hijack an otherwise facile procedural motion. Cabactulan noted that he USUN NEW Y 00000104 002 OF 002 continues to engage with the Iranians on finding agreement to this issue but has so far not received an official response. However, at lower levels Iran has indicated that officials will agree to discussing Article X withdrawal provisions in committee but not in a subsidiary body. RICE