WORLD FOOD PROGRAM: UPDATE ON CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR SOMALIA

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 UN ROME 000008 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR IO/HS, PRM/MCE, AF AND EB/IFD/ODA USAID FOR DCHA, FFP, OFDA, AND AFRICA BUREAU NAIROBI FOR GEORGIANNA PLATT, SUREKA KHANDAGLE, NICK COX AND PETE MOHAN E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS:SO SUBJECT: WORLD FOOD PROGRAM: UPDATE ON CONTINGENCY PLANS FOR SOMALIA REF: A) STATE 132604; B) UN ROME 03; AND C) UN ROME 01 ¶1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly. ¶2. (SBU) USUN Rome contacted WFP to obtain an update on WFP's current operational plans and status of contingency planning efforts. (Separately, WFP disseminated to the WFP Executive Board its latest situation report, which is pasted in its entirety in paragraph 7.) WFP reported that: A) The current operational plans include WFP continuing to distribute food in Mogadishu and the Afgoye corridor for the foreseeable future; however, the security situation in these areas is constantly changing and there are concerns for the safety of trucks transporting food. As a result, the continuation of distribution efforts cannot be guaranteed. No distributions are planned for the remaining areas of South Somalia, which are under Al-Shabaab control, until Al-Shabaab retracts it conditions on distribution. Meanwhile, distributions in the central regions continue as usual and will be facilitated through food imported at Bossasso Port and potentially Harardhere/Hobyo. WFP's logistics network in Southern Somalia remains in place, and current infrastructure/staffing levels and contractual agreements will be retained for the next three months, after which time funding levels and projected dates for a potential return to these areas will determine the plan. B) As background, a joint meeting held during the week of January 11 between WFP, OCHA, UNHCR and FAO's Nairobi-based Somalia Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) concluded that up to 120,000 people could be displaced over the next three months due to the forced suspension of WFP activities in Southern Somalia. Potential displacement breakdown follows: - 25,000 to Kenya/Ethiopia from Gedo region - 40,000 to Mogadishu, Kenya and north into Puntland if WFP is unable to gain access to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Afgoye corridor in the next three months (WFP stresses need to contextualize situation, e.g., IDPs may move away from Afgoye if WFP is unable to provide food assistance by road or air, thus it is likely that some IDPs may move back to Mogadishu but other may attempt to move to Galgadud and Mudug provinces from where they were originally displaced into Mogadishu); and - up to 30,000 in North Hiran could displace into Galgaduud or across the border into Ethiopia and 25,000 from other parts of Hiran could displace south to the Shabelles. WFP notes that a number of key factors could limit population movement, including: an expected above average harvest which would improve food availability and labor wages; typically, no WFP distributions during the harvest period (January/February); and preventative measures by Kenya and anti-southerner sentiment in the North. The most important factor for increased population movement is expected to be conflict based. [Note: WFP further clarified that the inflows to Yemen and Djibouti (75,000 and 30,000, respectively, as previously reported in reftel B) are still valid estimates but continue to fluctuate due to dynamic situations locally. More information on population movements to these countries will come out of the UNHCR/WFP regional contingency planning meeting expected to take place February 3-4 in Nairobi. End Note] C) Based on the above displacement projections, WFP now plans to: - Keep a minimum of two months worth of Mogadishu and Afgoye corridor stocks in Mogadishu to allow for a buffer if additional beneficiaries move to Afgoye or Mogadishu. WFP/Logistics is working on increasing storage capacity in the port; - Continue limited distributions in Dolo to provide some support to populations in the Gedo region, but this will have to be limited so as not to inflame a volatile situation; - Bring supplies in overland from Mombasa via Kenya, contingent upon WFP's ability to operate along the transport route once in UN ROME 00000008 002 OF 004 Somalia; - Improve the supply line to Central regions and Northern Hiran through Bossasso to allow WFP to continue reaching beneficiaries in the Central regions despite the loss of access via Mogadishu. A Special Operation (SO) is being put in place by WFP/Logistics to improve capacity of Bossasso Port and roads; - Increase stocks in Dusramareb/Galkayo: These stocks can be utilized in case of increased population movement into northern Hiran and the Central regions as well as for distributions in Hiran and Southern Regions if WFP gains access; and - Increase stocks in Mombasa which can be drawn upon for either overland transport to Kenya if WFP regains access or for supplying Mogadishu. Funding from the UN Central Emergency Response Fund (CERF),a Spanish contribution and other contributions has allowed WFP to immediately increase its stocks in Mogadishu and Mombasa by drawing down from prepositioned WFP stocks and undertaking regional purchase. ¶3. (SBU) Northern Corridor: WFP reports that the corridor through Bossasso to Central regions is already operational and has been used and tested. There are bottlenecks, including processing of documentation, storage, and draft limitation of Bossasso Port (6.8M). Lighterage of vessels with more than 4,000 MT of cargo is required, hence a slow discharge rate of approximately 500 MT/day can be achieved. Bossasso Port lacks equipment and requires rehabilitation, thus, WFP plans to expand SO # 10578.0 to include dredging of the port basin to 8.5M, and removal of shipwrecks and debris, provision of navigational aids, generators, lights, and port handling equipment. WFP estimates it would take approximately 12 months to complete the aforementioned work and at a budget of approximately $7.5 million. ¶4. (SBU) Storage: To deal with storage limitation as an immediate measure, WFP has already installed 7 wiikhalls in Galkayo Extended Delivery Point (EDP),increasing it from 5,000 MT to 8,500 MT and plans to increase this further to 10,000 MT in the coming three weeks, which would give WFP the ability to receive more direct deliveries from vessels discharging in Bossasso. In Bossasso, WFP has positioned 20 wiikhalls capable of storing 10,000 MT; however, WFP is working with authorities on a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) whereby land is provided to WFP in suitable location (i.e., close to the port). A WFP/Logistics mission is planned in the coming two weeks to Garowe and Bossasso to discuss and hopefully finalize the MOU with Puntland authorities for rehabilitation of the port, prioritization of humanitarian shipments/cargo, provision of land for storage and streamlining the processing of shipping documentation. ¶5. (SBU) WFP also plans to install an alternate beach port for delivery of humanitarian cargo to central regions to reduce the current delivery time of 7 to 10 days from Bossasso to EDPs in the central region (Galkayo and Dusaramareb). A beach port in Hobyo or Haaradhere is planned and already being discussed with contractors and local communities. WFP plans to install a fully operational EDP with a 10,000 MT storage facility. Estimated cost is $1.5 million and time to complete is approximately three months once MOU is signed with community providing suitable land and access to WFP. Once established, WFP believes delivery time to Central would be reduced to 4 to 5 days while shipping costs ex Mombasa could reduce from Mombasa-Bossasso of $120/MT to Mombasa-Hobyo $85/MT. ¶6. (SBU) Other contingency measures: WFP has secured a port warehouse in Mogadishu up to 20,000 MT which should allow WFP to safely store up to two months of Mogadishu and Afgoye cargo. WFP's construction of its own warehouse in Mogadishu Port will be completed by the end of July and will have a capacity of 15,000 MT. Currently, cargo is stored in contractors' warehouses under bond; however, there is concern that, if Al-Shabaab were to push on Mogadishu, these stocks could be UN ROME 00000008 003 OF 004 taken by force. WFP has also positioned 10 wiikhalls in Mombasa with 5,000 MT capacity should the need arise to install a rapid EDP closer to the Kenya border. Meanwhile, deliveries to Dolo continue keeping the supply route ex-Mombasa open and prepared. ¶7. (SBU) On January 22, WFP disseminated its latest situation report to WFP Executive Board members as follows: BEGIN REPORT "WFP Somalia Operations Situation As of January 18, 2010 Summary Update -- WFP is preparing a general food distribution to 17,500 beneficiaries of 223 mt of assorted food in Dolow in the north of Gedo Region, southern Somalia. Dolow is under TFG control and being supplied from Kenya. -- Though it is impossible for WFP to transport food through Al Shabaab (A/S) controlled areas, WFP continues to operate through Mogadishu port to supply Mogadishu and Afgoye, and through Bossasso port to supply north-east Somalia and the central regions. Deliveries from Berbera port serve north-west Somalia as well as parts of Ethiopia. To ensure that this altered delivery network operates smoothly, WFP has increased its warehousing capacity in Galkayo from 5,000 to 8,000 mt. WFP has also initiated discussions with the Puntland authorities to streamline the procedures at Bossasso port, and to increase storage capacity. -- WFP is expanding its current special operation 10578.0 to include rehabilitation work at Bossasso port to maximise throughput. WFP is also exploring the possibility of establishing a beach port and storage facility on the coastline of the central regions at either Haradhere or Hobyo to reduce costs and delivery time. -- WFP continues with programme activities in Somaliland and Puntland through its offices in Hargeisa, Bossasso and Galkayo with increased numbers of international and national staff members who are temporarily assigned from the South Somalia. -- WFP is working closely with other UN agencies in preparation of a contingency plan for next 3 months in response to WFP's temporary suspension of operations in southern Somalia. A rough estimate was made that up to 120,000 people could potentially displace over the first quarter of 2010 due to WFP's suspension. The estimate includes the possibility of distribution not taking place in the Afgoye corridor. It does not take floods or conflict, a leading cause of displacement in Somalia, in to consideration. WFP Security Update -- The overall security situation during the reporting period has been marked by fighting in Beletwein between Alhu Sunna Wal Jama'a (ASWJ) led forces and Hizbul Al-Islamiya. Reports have confirmed that ASWJ are now controlling both the eastern and western sides of the town after a three-day gunbattle that left scores dead and injured among the civilian population. The assault on Beletwein by pro-government forces came amid an Al-Shabaab military build-up in Galgadud in preparation of an attack on Dhusamareb. With the loss of Beletwein, which is a strategic gateway to Ethiopian and northern Somalia, Al-Shabaab have not been able to execute its intended plans on Galgadud. -- In Mogadishu, clashes between the TFG forces backed by AMISOM have dominated the week in review. Al-Shabaab forces, which are conducting near daily attacks in government controlled districts, are often rolled-back with the use of heavy mortar or artillery shelling. The threat of suicide bombings remain prevalent and worrisome, especially in light of recent confirmation by AMISOM that two vehicle painted with AU markings have been recently observed being driven by insurgents in Mogadishu. This category of threats will continue to dominate the security environment in Mogadishu forcing AMISOM and TFG installation to adopt higher state of readiness to reduce UN ROME 00000008 004 OF 004 exposure. -- In Puntland, hand grenade attacks seems to be increasing as local authorities are struggling with security operations which often yield little results while alienating a IDP population mostly coming from A/S controlled regions in south Somalia. As a result, Puntland government forces view this particular segment of the population with suspicion. -- In Somaliland, presidential elections remain of great concern, followed by threats of suicide attacks. In Puntland, assassinations and hand grenade explosions are expected to continue especially in Galkayo, Bossasso and Garowe. In Mogadishu, day missions for international staff members may be possible and subject to New York Security Clearance Approval. National staff members continue to operate from the seaport following their relocation from UNCC after receipt of threats of VBIED attacks. -- On January 17, Garowe Online reported that one local aid worker with SACCID agency was killed in Mogadishu. Two other staff members were missing. SACCID is an important cooperating partner of WFP for the wet feeding programme and targeted supplementary feeding in Mogadishu. The information has not yet being confirmed and the motive of the killing is unclear at this moment. However, if the incident is proved true, it may have an impact on the implementation of WFP's ongoing programmes in Mogadishu. -- UNHAS in-bound flights to Merka, K50, Wajid, Buaale and Beletwein remain suspended. Operations in Galkayo, Bossasso and Hargeisa may continue while flights to Mogadishu have to be approved on a case-by-case basis." END REPORT COUSIN