WORLD FOOD PROGRAM SOMALIA REFUGEE OUTFLOWS PIPELINE UPDATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 UN ROME 000001 SENSITIVE SIPDIS STATE FOR IO/HS, PRM/MCE AND EB/IFD/ODA USAID FOR DCHA, FFP, OFDA, AND AFRICA BUREAU NAIROBI FOR GEORGIANNA PLATT, SUREKA KHANDAGLE AND NICK COX E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: WFP SO EAID EFIN UNHCR PREF SUBJECT: WORLD FOOD PROGRAM SOMALIA REFUGEE OUTFLOWS PIPELINE UPDATE REF: STATE 132604 ¶1. (U) This message is sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly. ¶2. (SBU) In response to reftel, between January 7 and 8, USUN-Rome contacted World Food Program (WFP) Deputy Executive Director (DED) Amir Abdulla to obtain the latest pipeline information on WFP Protracted Relief and Recovery Operations (PRROs) in Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. Following is a summary: A) Kenya PRRO 102583: With the exception of a slight cereals shortfall, WFP reports full pipelines for cereals pulses, corn-soy blend (CSB) and oils through July. Current shortfall includes an outstanding advance of 11,000 MT, $10.55 million in the six-month period February-July 2010, which WFP expects to be able to cover. The relocation of 13,000 refugees from Dadaab to Kakuma was completed in October 2009. Since the beginning of January 2010, Dadaab has registered more than 59,000 new arrivals, of which 53,000 are from Somalia. New arrival trends from Somalia have decreased probably due to heavy rains, rendering the roads impassable. With the suspension of WFP programs in areas of Somalia controlled by the Al-Shabaab, a new wave of refugees is expected possibly over the next 3-4 weeks. There is urgent need for additional storage and food stocks at the Dadaab refugee camps. WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee influx into Kenya, a projected worst case scenario of 141,000 additional Somali refugees will result in a total shortfall of 25,531 MT, $23.84 million in the six-month period February-July ¶2010. B) Ethiopia PRRO 101273: Cereals, pulses and blended foods will be required in the coming months. The current shortfall is estimated at 715 MT, $537,438 in the six-month period February-July 2010. WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee influx into Ethiopia, it would not begin for possibly another 3-4 weeks and an estimated worst case scenario of 50,000 additional Somali refugees would result in a total shortfall of 7,196 MT, $6.05 million in the six-month period February-July ¶2010. C) Djibouti PRRO 105441: WFP reports a healthy pipeline for cereals, pulses and oil through July 2010, with a total shortfall of 449 MT, $457,086. However, funds are urgently required for the purchase of CSB and salt. Serious pipeline breaks will start in the second half of the year. WFP stressed that, if there is an increased Somali refugee influx into Djibouti, it would not begin for possibly another 3-4 weeks and an estimated worst case scenario of 30,000 additional Somali refugees would result in a total shortfall of 3,419 MT, $2.98 million in the six-month period February-July ¶2010. ¶3. (SBU) DED Abdulla also transmitted a detailed Excel spreadsheet summarizing the pipeline info for all three countries for CY 2010. Spreadsheet has been forward to State/PRM (Janet Deutsch),USAID/FFP (Rachel Grant and Pete Mohan) and State/AF (Matt Walsh). ¶4. (SBU) On separate issues, DED Abdulla also reported that, as of January 8: -- WFP is currently in the process of clarifying a misunderstanding by the TFG, which believes WFP will suspend operations in Mogadishu (TFG authorities erroneously misinterpreted the "operational pause" which went into effect on January 1 to also include the capital); -- A major Somali national newspaper has run a drawing depicting a hand draped in the WFP flag attempting to deliver a plate of food to a malnourished Somali, but the hand is being blocked by a militant in Al-Shabaab garb wielding a Kalishnikov and questioning, "Why do you care about these people?" (He believes UN ROME 00000001 002 OF 002 this provocative image may rile up locals against the actions of Al-Shabaab.); and -- WFP and UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) will jointly lead a regional contingency planning exercise during the week of January 25 (TBC). GLOVER