DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/04/10

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 07 TOKYO 000009 SIPDIS DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA SUBJECT: DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 01/04/10 INDEX: (1) PM Hatoyama pledges to resolve Futenma relocation issue within several months at New Year press conference (Nikkei) (2) Mayor of Omura City, Nagasaki, willing to consider accepting Futenma relocation if asked (Ryukyu Shimpo) (3) 50th anniversary of revision of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty: Potential danger of Japan-U.S. alliance losing substance (Sankei) (4) Hatoyama administration lacks resolve to pursue "equal Japan-U.S. relationship," review of security treaty (Nikkei) (5) Hatoyama Kantei with no political calendar (Nikkei) (6) Chinese ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai to be named vice foreign minister in charge of Six-Party Talks (Sankei) ARTICLES: (1) PM Hatoyama pledges to resolve Futenma relocation issue within several months at New Year press conference NIKKEI ONLINE (Full) 10:31, January 4, 2010 Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama commented on the issue of the relocation of the U.S. forces' Futenma Air Station (in Ginowan City, Okinawa) at his New Year press conference on the morning of Jan. 4. He said: "I have no intention to waste time aimlessly. I promise to set a firm deadline and come up with a conclusion acceptable both to the people of Okinawa and to the United States within several months." With regard to the Japan-U.S. relationship, he stated: "We will build a relationship under which both sides enhance their mutual trust while saying what they need to say." Hatoyama expressed his view on foreign policy in general by saying: "While regarding the Japan-U.S. alliance as the cornerstone, we would like to develop the concept of the East Asian community in the coming year." (2) Mayor of Omura City, Nagasaki, willing to consider accepting Futenma relocation if asked RYUKYU SHIMPO (Page 1) (Full) January 3, 2010 Ikue Nakaima In connection with the issue of the relocation of the U.S. forces' Futenma Air Station, Mayor Takashi Matsumoto of Omura City, Nagasaki Prefecture stated at an interview on Dec. 31: "I will not turn a deaf ear to the issue of Futenma relocation right from the start." During an interview with Ryukyu Shimpo, he indicated that if asked by the government, he would consider the relocation of the Futenma base to the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) base in Omura City. A number of weekly magazines have reported that the government has begun to consider the Omura air base as a possible Futenma relocation site. Commenting on such reports, Matusmoto said: "This came as a complete surprise. Even after the media reporting, we have not received any explanation from the government. I checked with TOKYO 00000009 002 OF 007 Diet members, but they denied such reports, saying they have not heard anything to that effect." He indicated that the city is taking a wait-and-see attitude for now. The MSDF's Omura air base is located at the land-based portion of the Nagasaki Airport, which is an offshore facility. Helicopters carried on MSDF destroyers are based there and it is only 70 kilometers from the U.S. forces' Sasebo base. Matsumoto said: "The U.S. military bases are concentrated excessively in Okinawa. Personally, I think the excessive burden on Okinawa should be dispersed to the Japanese mainland," indicating his understanding for the need to reduce the burden on Okinawa. However, with regard to the possibility of Omura City volunteering to serve as Futenma's relocation site, Matsumoto indicated a cautious stance. He said: "This has not been discussed at the city assembly or the city government. While personally, I think we should all share Okinawa's burden, the leader's opinion is one aspect, but there are also public opinion and the city assembly. The city is not in a position to present its view right now." (3) 50th anniversary of revision of Japan-U.S. Security Treaty: Potential danger of Japan-U.S. alliance losing substance SANKEI (Page 11) (Full) January 1, 2010 Takashi Arimoto, Washington The meaning of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty will likely be tested this year, which will mark the 50th anniversary of the revision of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty following a fierce anti-security treaty struggle. Issuing a new security declaration advocating the building of a new Japan-U.S. relationship of cooperation, coinciding with U.S. President Obama's visit to Japan in November, will lead to a strengthened alliance. However, since there are no prospects for settling the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma airfield (Ginowan City, Okinawa Prefecture) relocation issue, the mood for issuing a new declaration is not intensifying at all. Depending on the Hatoyama administration's approach, the bilateral alliance could actually be in danger of losing its substance instead of being deepened. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama has expressed his intention to decide on a relocation site for the Futenma airfield by May. He will apparently aim at directly conveying his thinking by holding talks with President Obama on the sidelines of the Global Nuclear Security Summit or the G-8 Summit to be held in Canada in June this year. The U.S. government has been calling on the Japanese side to accept the present plan to relocate the Futenma facilities to the coastal area of Camp Schwab in Nago City, Okinawa Prefecture. Provided that the Japanese side seeks to change the existing plan, the U.S. will be pressed to decide whether to turn it down or accept it. Larry Nicksh, an expert at the U.S. Congressional Research Service, stressed: "In view of the significance of the Japan-U.S. alliance relationship, the Futenma relocation issue should not be a matter of winning or losing. It is necessary for the U.S., if the present plan is accepted, or the Japanese side, if a new relocation site is adopted, to compensate the host municipality in some way or other." TOKYO 00000009 003 OF 007 The U.S. side is becoming increasingly skeptical about Prime Minister Hatoyama, who is continuing to waver over the Futenma issue, with the Washington Post dubbing him a "mercurial leader." Stanford University Professor Emeritus Daniel Okimoto, who is close to U.S. Ambassador to Japan Roos, expressed concern by saying: "While it is desirable for the U.S. and Japan to reaffirm the importance of the bilateral alliance and jointly consider bilateral security arrangements for the next quarter century in view of the 50th anniversary, the relationship of trust is being gradually undermined (over the Futenma issue)." At the G-8 Summit last November, the prime minister proposed to the President the launching of government-to-government talks with the aim of deepening the Japan-U.S. alliance in the run-up to the 50th anniversary. If a new security declaration is to be drafted, it will be done when the President visits Japan to attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum meeting. However, no prospects for launching such talks are in sight. Sheila Smith, a senior fellow for the Council on Foreign Relations, who is close to the Obama administration, insisted that (the two countries) should not insist on issuing a new declaration, saying, as if gauging the delicate atmosphere between Japan and the U.S., "The 50th anniversary does not signify that a new document is needed." The Hatoyama administration advocates an equal Japan-U.S. alliance. However, there appears to be no indication that it is aiming to change the unilateral nature of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty in which Japan has no obligation to defend the U.S. Senior research fellow James Przystup at the Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS) sounded a note of warning against Japan's passive stance, saying: "It is possible to continue with the present Japan-U.S. security. However, that would be far removed from the ideal of strengthening the alliance." (4) Hatoyama administration lacks resolve to pursue "equal Japan-U.S. relationship," review of security treaty NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) January 3, 2010 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) was all quiet on the afternoon of Dec. 29, but Japanese Ambassador to the U.S. Ichiro Fujisaki paid a visit to Foreign Minister Katsuya Okada at the minister's office. Fujisaki told Okada that "the U.S. side's response is very harsh" and conveyed the U.S. position that it will not accept any relocation site for the U.S. forces' Futenma Air Station other than the coastal area of Camp Schwab, as previously agreed upon by the two countries. Okada nodded. Eight days earlier, on the day U.S. government offices were shut down due to the snow storm, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton had summoned Fujisaki. The purpose of the meeting was to protest Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's statement after his meeting with Secretary Clinton in Copenhagen that the U.S. side "indicated its understanding" of efforts to select a new relocation site. Gap on Futenma issue Japan has notified the U.S. it will reach a solution on the Futenma TOKYO 00000009 004 OF 007 issue by May, but the U.S. side is not satisfied. The existing relocation plan took Japan and the U.S.10 years to negotiate, and it has been accepted by Okinawa. Yet, the Japanese government overturned this agreement. The U.S. side, which took an easygoing attitude at first, is now distrustful of Japan. President Barack Obama refused to meet Hatoyama in Copenhagen. The U.S. side has also been unenthusiastic about a visit by Okada in mid-January, which he has been coordinating for. The rift between Japan and the U.S. has become evident 100 days after the inauguration of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) administration. There had been signs of what was coming. When the DPJ included in its manifesto (campaign pledges) for the House of Representatives election last year the pursuit of a "close and equal Japan-U.S. relationship," a senior MOFA official was concerned that "this resembles the old Japan Socialist Party, which negated the Japan-U.S. security treaty." After the 9/11 terrorist attacks, the Japanese government has promoted cooperation with the U.S. on such issues as counterterrorism and North Korea under the slogan of "a Japan-U.S. alliance in the world." This policy will face a turnabout. Hatoyama harbors a special affection for the word "equal." His grandfather, former Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, once advocated independent defense in opposition to former Prime Minister Shigeru Yoshida, who signed the security treaty. In 1996, when Hatoyama, who often boasts, "I have my grandfather's DNA in me," was preparing to launch the DPJ, he advocated a "Japan-U.S. alliance without the permanent stationing of troops." After becoming prime minister, Hatoyama took one step further at the Japan-China-ROK summit in Beijing last October. He said: "(Japan) has tended to be too reliant on the U.S." This reflected the true intent of Hatoyama, who has criticized the Liberal Democratic Party administration for being subservient to the U.S. in foreign policy. However, does Hatoyama have a strategy that includes a review of the Japan-U.S. security treaty? The treaty stipulates that the U.S. has the obligation to defend Japan in a contingency, while Japan has to provide military bases for the U.S. forces in the country. If this balance is disrupted, Japan's defense cost will skyrocket and a debate on constitutional revision will be necessary. A close aide of the Prime Minister states unequivocally: "Hatoyama lacks the resolve to review the Japan-U.S. security treaty." National Defense College Professor Emeritus Masamori Sase notes: "There are four levels in the concept of 'equality': actual capability, qualification, pride, and state of mind, and the DPJ administration's idea of equality is at the level of state of mind. This is unmistakably self-centered." The Hatoyama administration's view of China is also convoluted. DPJ Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa visited China in December with a delegation consisting of some 140 Diet members and met President Hu Jintao. The government approved a meeting of Xi Jinping, regarded as the likely successor to Hu, with the Emperor as an "exception." However, it has shown no signs of taking action on pending issues such as the gas fields in East China Sea. China increasing its influence TOKYO 00000009 005 OF 007 The concept of an East Asian community proposed by Hatoyama at his first meeting with Hu is also left hanging. China remains cautious: "We must take a long-term point of view," according to Xi. A Chinese government source says that "(China) is trying to determine if the concept is limited to the Hatoyama administration and if this will continue under a DPJ administration." A senior Ministry of Defense official points out that "if there is a decline in the U.S. forces' deterrence in the area around Japan, China will be the one to take advantage of this vacuum." After the U.S. forces completed their withdrawal from the Philippines in 1994, China has increased its influence in the South China Sea. The Japan-U.S. discord over the Futenma issue also has the potential of tipping the military balance in East Asia. This year marks the 50th anniversary of the revision of the Japan-U.S. security treaty. China and the other Asian countries are closely watching where an "equal Japan-U.S. relationship" is heading. (5) Hatoyama Kantei with no political calendar NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) January 2, 2010 An online search of all the Nikkei articles for last year containing the words "Yukio Hatoyama" produced 2,700 articles. This figure was followed by about 2,200 articles on Taro Aso, who held the post of prime minister until September of last year. The number of articles related to Hatoyama shows that the hero in Japanese politics last year was Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama, who realized a full-scale change of government. The number of articles on Ichiro Ozawa was about 1,300, which came in third. The Hatoyama administration was launched after the Democratic Party of Japan won an overwhelming victory in the August House of Representatives election, but the popularity of the administration is already on the decline, mainly because Hatoyama has failed to exert leadership. A lawmaker who worked with Hatoyama in the now defunct New Party Sakigake (Pioneers) made the following comment: "Mr. Hatoyama persistently acted in accordance with circumstances (when he was a member of Sakigake). Although he can deal with situations, he cannot set up situations. It is like a surfer being unable to create waves. If this is his political style, he should change his style, but if this is part of his personality, there's no hope." The chaotic situation over the issue of relocating the U.S. Marine Corps' Futenma Air Station in Okinawa was caused by the prime minister's flip-flops. He said, "An agreement among the ruling parties in disregard of the intentions of the U.S. is inconceivable," but the ruling parties have started working-level talks on new relocation sites for the Futenma facility. As long as the prime minister remains unable to issue specific instructions, the talks may never reach a conclusion. Power relationships in the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) have made it difficult for Hatoyama to make a decision. In the process of TOKYO 00000009 006 OF 007 compiling the fiscal 2010 budget, Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa succeeded in dealing with thorny issues by presenting requests that are essential for the party, thus playing up his political presence. It is becoming clearer that the Hatoyama cabinet cannot decide on anything without listening to Ozawa's views. The DPJ proposed unifying the policymaking process under the leadership of the cabinet in its policy manifesto for the previous House of Representatives election. Since the most powerful figure is outside the cabinet, however, this pledge has become has become a dead letter. To implement the campaign pledge, it will probably be necessary for the administration to have Ozawa join the cabinet as a minister without a portfolio while keeping him in the post of secretary general. Ozawa, who is fully responsible for developing election strategies and managing Diet affairs, has also taken the initiative in developing the political schedule. The biggest event in domestic politics this year will be the House of Councillors election in the summer. The election is likely to be held on Sunday in July -- the 11th, the 18th, or the 25th. By counting backwards from the voting date, a decision will be made on when to convene the next regular Diet session. This matter is also in Ozawa's hands. Former Prime Minister Noboru Takeshita, who was well versed in political agendas, reportedly handled the Takeshita calendar. In the current political world, only Ozawa is capable of drawing up the political calendar. The head of the Prime Minister's Official Residence (Kantei) remains unable to draw up a schedule and appears unlikely even to be shown the Ozawa calendar readily. A political calendar that is carefully worked out tends to be upset by politics-and-money scandals. Prime Minister Takeshita was driven to resignation after a regular Diet session fell into chaos over the Recruit Corp.'s political bribery case. Later last year, the first trial was held for Ozawa's first state-funded secretary, who was arrested in violation of the Political Funds Control Law, and the prime minister's former first state-funded secretary was indicted without arrest. Prosecutors are questioning DPJ lawmaker Tomohiro Ishikawa, a former secretary to Ozawa, over the failure of Ozawa's political fund management organization to report money used to purchase land in Tokyo. Former chief cabinet secretary Hiromu Nonaka, who was a political enemy of Ozawa, stated: "Mr. Ozawa might be feeling irritated. He has indicated his eagerness to assume the premiership, and this might be showing up in his attempts to intimidate prosecutors." With politics-and-money scandals involving senior officials in the administration cropping up in one after another, the next regular Diet session could be thrown into confusion. We do not feel refreshed even when we look at the calendar for the new year. (6) Chinese ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai to be named vice foreign minister in charge of Six-Party Talks SANKEI ONLINE (Full) 12:32, January 4, 2010 Toshu Noguchi in Beijing TOKYO 00000009 007 OF 007 China's state-run Xinhua News Agency reported on Jan. 4 that the Chinese government will appoint Ambassador to Japan Cui Tiankai as vice minister of foreign affairs. Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei, who chairs the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear issue, will step down from his post. Coordination is underway to appoint Ambassador to South Korea Cheng Yonghua as Cui's successor. Cheng once studied at the Soka University in Japan. He served at the Chinese embassy in Japan for six years from 1977. He is proficient in Japanese and has established many personal connections in Japan. He formerly served as the deputy director general of the Chinese Foreign Ministry's Asian Affairs Department and minister at the embassy in Tokyo. He became ambassador to Malaysia in 2006 and ambassador to South Korea in 2008. As the successor to Vice Minister Wu, Cui is expected to take charge of the Six-Party Talks. ROOS