VICE-FOREIGN MINISTER YABUNAKA BRIEFS PRIME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 000054 SIPDIS FOR EAP/J E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/11/2020 TAGS: PREL PINR PGOV MARR JA SUBJECT: VICE-FOREIGN MINISTER YABUNAKA BRIEFS PRIME MINISTER HATOYAMA ON HIS WASHINGTON VISIT Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN ROOS BY REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. VFM Yabunaka told Ambassador Roos January 8 he had briefed PM Hatoyama and CCS Hirano on the results of his Washington trip, telling the PM he had his work cut out for him in ""reconstructing"" confidence with President Obama. The PM is considering trying to reach a decision on the FRF as early as April, in time for his trip to Washington in connection with the April 12-13 Nuclear Disarmament Summit. The PM endorsed the idea of a January 19th coordinated ministerial statement on the importance of the U.S.-Japan alliance supplemented by separate statements by leaders. A more ambitions agreement on a new 21st century alliance doctrine should wait until later in the year, and could be announced during President Obama's visit to attend the APEC leaders meeting in the fall. Yabunaka thought it unlikely that DPJ Secretary General Ozawa would have any interest in traveling to the U.S. in the near future. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Administrative Vice-Foreign Minister Yabunaka told Ambassador Roos during a January 8 meeting that he had just come from briefing Prime Minister (PM) Hatoyama on his Washington visit, and had met Chief Cabinet Secretary (CCS) Hirano earlier the same day. Hatoyama and Hirano understand the difficulties of trying to find alternative sites for the Futenma Replacement Facility (FRF),Yabunaka said, but both feel the need to make an effort to find an out-of-Okinawa solution or face accusations of going back on DPJ campaign pledges. The PM and CCS believe it is possible to come up with a better solution than the existing plan, but even if that proves impossible, delaying the decision will at least allow the DPJ to pass its budget. Yabunaka requested that the USG at least engage the government of Japan (GOJ) in discussion of alternative sites if and when the government comes up with proposals. The PM told Yabunaka he has resolved to stop talking to the press about the FRF issue. ¶3. (C) Yabunaka said in the PM's view, an out-of-Okinawa solution does not necessarily mean moving the III MEF entirely out of Okinawa, but could involve as little as relocating some of their training to mainland sites such as civilian airports in Kyushu or western Japan. Yabunaka said the PM understands that little time remains before his self-imposed May deadline, and was determined to come to a decision as early as April in time for his trip to Washington in connection with the April 12-13 Nuclear Disarmament Summit. By then (the end of March),the budget would be passed in time for the start of the new Japanese fiscal year. Yabunaka echoed recent reports that the Nago mayoral race set for January 24 is tightening, saying that Hirano and Hatoyama may have been right in judging that delaying the FRF decision would not decisively shift the POLITICAL tides in Okinawa. ¶4. (C) Yabunaka said he told the PM the challenge for him would be ""reconstructing"" confidence with President Obama. Much damage has been done due to the way the Futenma and East Asian Community issues have been handled, he explained. Yabunaka sensed a lot of frustration and disappointment in Washington, particularly during his meetings at the Pentagon and the White House. However, he was pleased that in all his meetings, USG interlocutors had been willing to listen to his views. Yabunaka said he stressed to the PM the importance of the official communication channel between the Foreign Ministry and the State Department, noting that no matter how serious or decent they are as people, or how sound their counsel, informal emissaries are complicating the relationship. ¶5. (C) Yabunaka was pleased that there seemed to be agreement on issuing a strong coordinated statement by Foreign and Defense (two-plus-two) Ministers regarding the importance of the alliance on the occasion of the January 19th anniversary of its signing as well as agreement to separate statements by TOKYO 00000054 002 OF 003 leaders. The PM had agreed to this proposal when Yabunaka reported it to him. Yabunaka said he thought a more ambitions agreement on a new 21st century alliance doctrine should wait until later in the year, and could be announced during President Obama's visit to attend the APEC leaders meeting in the fall. He explained that the DPJ would likely have more leeway to assert its own views on alliance issues after the Upper House election in July, making it easier to develop such a document. Yabunaka said he thought this would be the case even if the DPJ does not win an absolute majority in the Upper House election this summer and is forced to maintain the coalition with the Democratic Socialist Party (DSP) and People's New Party (PNP). He added that discussion of potentially risky issues like SOFA revision and environmental clean-up on U.S. bases would likely have to be part of this process. Both sides need to have a clear understanding in advance where those discussions will end up, he said. Yabunaka said he plans a series of five speeches to publicize the benefits to Japan of the U.S. alliance, in particular how much of the financial burden for Japan's defense the U.S. bears. ¶6. (C) On Diet matters and the election, Yabunaka said he thought the upcoming Diet session will focus primarily on three issues: the economy, the FRF, and the DPJ's money scandals. The DPJ will likely have a hard time achieving its objective of 60 seats in the Upper House election this summer, he said. Many people have underestimated the difficulty of that task. But even if they fail to achieve an outright majority, Yabunaka said he expects the DPJ to be more assertive vis-a-vis its coalition partners after the election. ¶7. (C) Yabunaka said the next two months will be very hard for DPJ Secretary General Ozawa, as he defends himself against accusations of campaign finance law violations. Ozawa will likely have no interest in visiting Washington, as he wishes to avoid a policy role, and any meetings in DC would inevitably involve policy discussions. Also it is unclear whom Ozawa would meet if he were to visit Washington. Ozawa's trip to China, on the other hand, had been almost entirely ceremonial, Yabunaka said. Yabunaka said he had doubts that Ozawa had really come out against the existing FRF plan as media reports suggested, saying it was more likely that someone like PNP Okinawan Diet Member Shimoji Mikio had quoted Ozawa as having agreed with something Shimoji himself had said. Turning briefly to North Korea, Yabunaka categorically denied that Ozawa has had direct contact with the DPRK government. Although certain Diet members associated with Ozawa may have had contact through the channel of the Chosen Soren organization, Yabunaka said he had personally confirmed that Ozawa himself had had no contact with the DPRK. ¶8. (C) Yabunaka saw FM Okada's January 12 meeting with the Secretary in Hawaii as a chance to review bilateral issues in addition to discussing further alliance topics beyond the FRF. Yabunaka downplayed the possibility that Japan might announce additional actions to support coalition efforts in Operation Enduring Freedom in lieu of its Indian Ocean refueling operations, saying anything new involving the Self Defense Forces would likely require legislation. It will be much more productive to concentrate on implementing our announced package of support for Afghanistan and Pakistan, he said. ¶9. (C) Commenting on the choice of Deputy PM Kan as Finance Minister, Yabunaka said he thought the choice would strengthen PM Hatoyama's POLITICAL position. Kan had been keeping a very low profile in the belief that he would be next in line to become Prime Minister. But now Kan's talents will be more effectively put to work in support of DPJ administration priorities. Yabunaka acknowledged that Kan will be tougher on MOF bureaucrats, as he is less sympathetic TOKYO 00000054 003 OF 003 than former minister Fujii, but they will find a way to work with their new boss, he said. ROOS