NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CABINET DECISION ON ITS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 THE HAGUE 000072 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/05/2020 TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO AF NL SUBJECT: NETHERLANDS/AFGHANISTAN: CABINET DECISION ON ITS WAY REF: A. THE HAGUE 759 ¶B. THE HAGUE 015 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Edwin R. Nolan for reasons 1.4 ( b) and (d). ¶1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. A Dutch Cabinet decision on a post-2010 Afghanistan commitment is expected anytime within the next two weeks, possibly as early as February 5. Information on the specifics of the discussions is closely guarded, but all sources report that the negotiations are very delicate and fragile with a determination to remain a viable partner in ISAF. The focus of the negotiations appears to be on a transitional approach for their forces in Uruzgan through August 2011. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C/NF) In a series of "mini" Cabinet meetings, the discussions on Afghanistan have been "difficult" and "fragile", explained Andre Rouvoet, the leader of the junior coalition Christian Union party, to Ambassador Levin on February 3. Rouvoet, a Deputy Prime Minister participating in all the full and mini Cabinet meetings on Afghanistan, would not elaborate further about the February 2 cabinet discussions on Afghanistan. He noted that the ministers were "still talking" and expected a decision within the next "week or two" but emphasized several times the "delicate" situation within the Cabinet. He also made a point to reiterate the long-standing decision of the Dutch to depart Uruzgan. ¶3. (C/NF) Marcel de Vink, Chief of Staff to the Foreign Minister, told POLOFF February 3 the sessions were extremely "delicate" with the discussions focusing on a "transition" option. He was of the opinion that if all goes well the Cabinet could, "in principle" agree to the "transition" option February 5. This compromise option would have the Dutch "slow down" their departure from Uruzgan and focus on a transition mission through July 2011. De Vink stated a letter from the NATO Secretary General with a specific request and the designation of another nation as lead-nation could be the catalyst for an agreement within the Cabinet. According to de Vink, the goal is to have the formal notification letter delivered to Parliament by February 19, followed by parliamentary debates after the local elections in early March. De Vink emphasized repeatedly the fragility of the discussions. ¶4. (C/NF) COMMENT: It is expected that the Davids Committee report (on Iraq, ref B) -- another "delicate issue" -- may be the first agenda item at the February 5 Cabinet meeting. The Labor Party wants the Cabinet to accept the Davids report without qualifying responses, which is counter to Christian Democrat Party (CDA) wishes. If the CDA gives in to the Labor Party on the Davids report, then it may pave the way for support of the transition option on Afghanistan. If the CDA will not budge on the Davids report, then Labor may be less cooperative on Afghanistan. Measured engagement in this fragile arena includes SACEUR's visit on February 8 and the Ambassador's meeting on February 9 with the Triad (senior policy advisors to the Prime minister, Foreign Minister and Chief of Defense). END COMMENT. THE HAGUE 00000072 002 OF 002 LEVIN